Razz

In today's Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll, Sarah Palin has pulled the presidential race back into a tie.

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after Sarah Palin’s acceptance speech, Barack Obama gets 46% of the vote and so does John McCain. When "leaners" are included, it’s all even at 48%.

Now that the Barack convention bounce has been erased, we'll see over the next couple of days if the McCain/Palin bounce has energy enough to create a lead.

Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, tomorrow (Monday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the net impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear.

The new Zogby poll, noted in the next post down, shows McCain/Palin leading by 4%.

Four Points

A week ago, John McCain had a two point lead over Team Obama in the Zogby poll. This week, the Republican ticket has moved into a 4 point lead.

The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.

More meaningful than the bottom line of the poll is what's inside it. The GOP convention was effective in boosting McCain's popularity and introducing Sarah Palin to the country.

McCain's favorability rating increased from 50% favorable last week to 57% favorable now, a significant jump that indicates the GOP convention was a success. Among independent voters, 61% now have a favorable impression of him, compared to just 49% who said the same a week ago.

We keep hearing how this election will be decided by independent voters - who now have an astounding 61% favorable impression of McCain compared to 47% for Barack.

Nearly half - 49% - said they had a favorable opinion of Barack Obama, while 50% they had a negative impression of him. Among independent voters, 47% gave him favorable marks, compared to 46% who said the same thing last week.

Voters are also feeling very good about Palin.

Among the vice presidential candidates, 54% said they now hold a favorable view of Palin, while 42% hold an unfavorable view. While 49% have a favorable opinion of Joe Biden, 47% hold an unfavorable view of him.

Just one week ago, 23% told Zogby that they did not know enough about Palin to make a judgment about whether they held a favorable or unfavorable view of her - but this most recent survey shows just 4% were unfamiliar with her - another indication that likely voters paid attention to the GOP convention this week, which won the highest television viewership numbers ever earned by an American political convention.

Game Changer

Sarah Palin rocked the house at the Republican convention last night. Nice that the GOP has a star speaker of its own - and one who, much to the chagrine of the other side, has lived a real life, and made it on her own.

Emerging from the St. Paul shadows for her star turn at the Republican National Convention, Sarah Palindidn’t disappoint the thousands of delegates in the Xcel Center, who gave her a thunderous embrace after several rocky days in the national spotlight. The question remains whether her performance was enough to win over the 60 percent of the nation who say they don’t know enough about her to have an opinion But by almost any measure, her performance exceeded expectations. 

But the world of the intellectual bigots is already riled up against her, even as she makes her debut. Here's an email that was forwarded to me after having made its way around elite circles - from someone who lives in Alaska. A little insight into the contempt for those who didn't go to the right college from those who did.

This is from a college grad to her fellow alums.

As an Alaskan, I am writing to give all of you some information on
Sarah Palin, Senator McCain's choice for VP. As an Alaska voter, I
know more than most of you about her and, frankly, I am horrified that
he picked her.

  Her husband works in

the oil fields of Prudhoe Bay and races snow mobiles. She is a life
time member of the NRA and has worked tirelessly to allow
indiscriminate hunting of wildlife in Alaska , particularly wolves and
bears. She has spent millions of Alaska state dollars on aerial
hunting of these predators from helicopters and airplanes, dollars
that should have been spent, for example, on Alaska 's failing school
system.

We have the lowest rate of high school graduation in the
country. Not all of you may think aerial predator hunting is so bad,
but how anyone (other than Alaska wolf-haters, of which there are
many, most without teeth), could think this use of funds is
appropriate is beyond me. If you want to know more about the aerial
hunting travesty, let me know and I will send some links to
informative web sites.

She has been a strong supporter of increased use of fossil fuels, yet
the McCain campaign has the nerve to say she has "green" policies. The
only thing green about Sarah Palin is her lack of experience. She has
consistently supported drilling in ANWR, use of coal-burning power
plants (as I write this, a new coal plant is being built in her home
town of Wasilla ), strip mining, and almost anything else that will
unnecessarily exploit the diminishing resources of Alaska and destroy
its environment.

Prior to her one year as governor of Alaska , she was mayor of Wasilla,
a small red neck town outside Anchorage.The average maximum education
level of parents of junior high school kids in Wasilla is 10th grade.
Unfortunately, I have to go to Wasilla every week to get groceries and
other supplies, so I have continual contact with the people who put
Palin in office in the first place. I know what I'm talking about.

These people don't have a concept of the world around them or of the
serious issues facing the US . Furthermore, they don't care. So long as
they can go out and hunt their moose every fall, kill wolves and bears
and drive their snow mobiles and ATVs through every corner of the
wilderness, they're happy. I wish I were exaggerating.

Sarah Palin is currently involved in a political corruption scandal.
She fired an individual in law enforcement here because she didn't
like how he treated one of her relatives during a divorce. The man's
performance and ability weren't considered; it was a totally personal
firing and is currently under investigation. While the issue isn't
close to the scandal of Ted Steven's corruption, it shows that Palin
isn't "squeaky clean" and causes me to think there may be more issues
that could come to light. Clearly McCain doesn't care.

When you line Palin up with Biden, the comparison would be laughable
if it weren't so serious. Sarah Palin knows nothing of economics
(admittedly a weak area for McCain), or of international affairs,
knows nothing of national government, Social Security, unemployment,
health care systems - you name it. The idea of her meeting with heads
of foreign governments around the world truly frightens me.
In an increasingly dangerous world, with the economy in shambles in
the US , Sarah Palin is uniquely UNqualified to be vice president.

John McCain is not a young man. Should something happen to him such that
the vice president had to step in, it would destroy our country and
possibly the world to have someone as inexperienced and inappropriate
as Sarah Palin. The choice of Palin is a cheap shot by McCain to try
to get Hillary supporters to vote for him. when McCain introduced her
today, Palin had the nerve to compare herself with Hillary and
Geraldine Ferraro.

Sarah Palin, you are no Hillary Clinton.
To those of you who, like me, supported Hillary and were upset that she
did not get the nomination, please don't think that Sarah Palin is a
worthy substitute. If you supported Hillary, regardless of what you
think the media and the democratic party may have done to undermine
her campaign, the person to support now is Obama, not Sarah Palin. To
those of you who are independent or undecided, don't let the choice of
Palin sway you in favor of McCain. Choosing her shows how unqualified
McCain is to be president.

To those of you who are conservative, I
guess you have no choice for president. But please try to see how the
poor choice of Palin tells us a great deal about McCain's judgment.
While the political posturing inherent in the choice of Palin is
obvious, the more serious issue is the fact that the VP is, literally,
a heartbeat away from the presidency. Sarah Palin is totally and
unequivocally unqualified to be vice president, let alone president.
I know this is a lengthy and emotional email, but the stakes are high.
I thought it might help for all of you, regardless of political
affiliation, to know something about Palin from someone who has to
live with her administration in Alaska on a daily basis. 

Careers of Change

Will this be Sarah's most memorable line tonight?

"Here’s how I look at the choice Americans face in this election. In politics, there are some candidates who use change to promote their careers. And then there are those, like John McCain, who use their careers to promote change."

It has a sort of "Ask not," quality to it, doesn't it?

Before I became governor of the great state of Alaska, I was mayor of my hometown. And since our opponents in this presidential election seem to look down on that experience, let me explain to them what the job involves. I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a ‘community organizer,’ except that you have actual responsibilities." 

Drudge has some excerpts posted - the material looks good - aggressive, going right after Barack where he's weak.

"Our opponents say, again and again, that drilling will not solve all of America’s energy problems - as if we all didn’t know that already. But the fact that drilling won’t solve every problem is no excuse to do nothing at all. Starting in January, in a McCain-Palin administration, we’re going to lay more pipelines...build more nuclear plants...create jobs with clean coal...and move forward on solar, wind, geothermal, and other alternative sources.

It's going to be a rockin' night!

Obama O'Reilly

Barack will try to distract from John McCain's acceptance speech Thursday night by appearing, for the first time, on The Factor with Bill O'Reilly. The two parties reached agreement on a detente after a personal meeting between Obama and Fox News Chief Roger Ailes. 

During the sit-down in a Waldorf-Astoria hotel suite in Manhattan that included Rupert Murdoch, the network's owner, Obama expressed concern about the way Fox was covering him. "I just wanted to know if I'm going to get a fair shake from Fox News Channel," Ailes recalled him saying.

Defining Moment

Sarah Palin's incredible journey from PTA to VP hits its critical juncture tonight, as the nominee for VP speaks to a nationwide audience. The media needs to be calmed from its ruthless desire to play gotcha, and tonight's speech is the chance for America to fall so in love with her that breathless, yet silly, "revelations" can be left behind.

This morning on Good Morning America, for example, ABC rolled out investigative reporter Brian Ross to reveal an exclusive - well-known news that Sarah Palin fired the chief of police in Wasilla when she took office in the 1990's. The firing was challenged, but the court ruled Palin to be fully within her rights to fire him for whatever reason she deemed worthy.

Also revealed on TV this morning was video of Palin talking about her son's deployment to Iraq, and her desire that he should be going on a mission from God. Uneventful video offered with breathless anchor excitement, a good news piece of video for McCain, but swallowed by an eager media feeding frenzy and exreted into campaign discourse as if a pearl.


Tonight is the night that Palin controls - and it is the night that will set the course for the McCain candidacy. If she steals the show, she secures the election for McCain/Palin. If she falters, the media keeps the conversation going as if McCain has blundered, shown poor judgment, and allows Barack to shift the conversation away from the experience question, a debate which he loses.

Giuliani Spins Palin

Rudy Giuliani has been on virtually every major show on every network over the past 24 hours talking up the McCain/Palin ticket. He is wonderfully good at it, and credible. Have a look.

Liberal, Inexperience

Does anyone remember the philosophical differences between the political parties? It's not a bad idea for the GOP to use its convention as a reminder. Which Fred Thompson did last night.

Thompson - who ran for president this year and failed -- described presumptive Republican nominee John McCain's service to his country and laid into the Democrats, calling presidential nominee Barack Obama the "most liberal, most inexperienced nominee to ever run for president."

While it's debatable whether Barack comes in first in either of those categories, the debate represents a major vulnerability for Barack. Through the fall, as voters learn more about Barack's partnership with folks like Bill Ayers (co-founder of the Weathermen domestic terror organization) and Reverends Wright and Pfleger, the accusation should take on greater meaning.

Pretzel Logic

As expected, questions about whether Sarah Palin's 14 years in elective office qualifies her for vice president have naturally turned to similar discussions about Barack's 14 years in office. This, of course, makes Barack a bit uncomfortable - so much so that he is now claiming he's qualified to be president because he's run for president for so long.

“Well, my understanding is that Governor Palin’s town of Wasilla has, I think, 50 employees. We’ve got 2,500 in this campaign. I think their budget is maybe $12 million a year. You know, we have a budget of about three times that just for the month. So I think that our ability to manage large systems and to execute I think has been made clear over the last couple of years,” Obama said.

Funny, but Sarah's been running the state of Alaska, with an annual budget of $7 billion for as long as Barack's been running for president. McCain, thrilled, I'm sure, to see Barack falling into the trap, offers a firm rebuttle.

“She’s been in elected office longer than Sen. Obama. She’s been the chief executive of the state that provides 20 percent of America’s energy; she has balanced budgets; she has had executive experience as governor, as mayor, as a city council member and PTA.

So she was in elected office when Sen. Obama was still a local community organizer. He’s never had one day of executive experience.”

To have brought a debate over leadership of the free world to this hair splitting point is a shame - the result of how far Barack has lowered the bar.

As McCain's campaign points out:

“For Barack Obama to argue that he’s experienced enough to be president because he’s running for president is desperate circular logic and its laughable. It is a testament to Barack Obama’s inexperience and failing qualifications that he would stoop to passing off his candidacy as comparable to Governor Sarah Palin’s executive experience managing a budget of over $10 billion and more than 24,000 employees,” said spokesman Tucker Bounds.

Who's Up?

I thought we would have seen a tied race between McCain and Obama by today. I was wrong. The best poll, Rasmussen, shows Barack up 6%.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 48% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 51%, McCain 45%. This is the highest level of support enjoyed by Obama at any point in Election 2008.

With Sarah Palin arriving on the heals of Barack's big speech, I would have expected her four days of dominating the news would have lead to a swing in the other direction.

Despite all the national attention that has been focused on Sarah Palin, public perceptions of the Alaska Governor have changed little in the last few days. She is still viewed favorably by just over half of all voters. A separate survey found that Obama is number one and Palin number two on the list of candidates people would like to meet.

Obama has strengthened his support among Democrats and now attracts the vote from 85% of those within his party. Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republicans support McCain.

Sports

Footage of Sarah Palin during her sportscasting days.

Squeeze Those Lemons

John McCain's convention being blown out by a hurricane could be a disaster for his candidacy.

Prediction: I think the storm coinciding with the Republican Convention will ultimately lead to an advantage for John McCain.

Warning to Michael Moore (and other McCain haters): Be careful what you wish for.

“I was just thinking, this Gustav is proof that there is a God in heaven,” Moore said, laughing. “To have it planned at the same time – that it would actually be on its way to New Orleans for day one of the Republican Convention, up in the Twin Cities – at the top of the Mississippi River.”

I don't mind the sick humor. If I were on his side, I might have a chuckle, too, at McCain's misfortune. But what if it isn't unfortunate for the GOP?

The challenge of life is to make lemonade out of them lemons, and I have a feeling that's what the Republican candidates will do. As McCain prepares to tamp down the hoopla in Minnesota, consider the repercutions of the storm:
1) McCain gets to focus on the storm, showing leadership.
2) Media storylines this week will be more focused on McCain than Barack - during a time of crisis.
3) On the third anniversary of Katrina, McCain will emphasize how much better he handles these types of things than did President Bush.
4) Instead of posing in Minnesota, he may give his speech from a remote location near the storm damage. An action speech, rather than a poser speech.

And consider this:

President Bush is unlikely to make it to the Republican National Convention, and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) may deliver his acceptance speech via satellite because of the historically huge hurricane threatening New Orleans, top officials said.

No Bush speech spells good news for McCain, as well.

Thoughtful Analysis

Finally, analysis of the Palin selection that shows some insight.

Fair Reviews

What do moms at the state fair have to say about their Governor Palin being selected by John McCain? Since the hope is, clearly, that Palin will keep angry female voters from settling for Barack, their feedback could be enlightening.

The McCain Choice

John McCain is teasing now on his VP choice, trying to steal back some attention.

Senator John McCain has decided on his running mate, two Republican strategists in contact with McCain's campaign said Wednesday. He is expected to reveal his choice at a rally at a basketball arena in Dayton, Ohio, at 11 a.m. Friday.

McCain has the chance to turn this race upside down - but that won't happen if he does what is expected.

McCain's decision is known only to his small inner circle of advisers, no more than three or four people, who have refused all public discussion on the matter. Republicans close to the campaign said that the top contenders remained the same three men who have been the source of speculation for weeks: former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and, possibly, Senator Joseph Lieberman, independent of Connecticut.

I know the arguments about mormons in Colorado, but I think that Mitt Romney would be a major mistake - he's too slick, insincere, and too vulnerable to attack for 1) what he said about McCain during the primaries and 2) for his lack of leadership in Massachusetts. I suspect Mitt's high level of visability this week was part of a ruse to keep people assuming that he's the nominee.

Joe Lieberman, while supposedly favored by McCain, would also be crazy. The message is too confusing. Is he a conservative? Is he a Democrat? Didn't he run with Al Gore?

Pawlenty looks like a good choice, but not a game changer. I see a game changer coming. A woman makes the most sense, to continue to drive the wedge between Hillary supporters and Barack supporters. Someone like Alaska Governor Sarah Palin would be great, but she's not experienced enough to go on the ticket with a 72 year old president, I'm afraid.

Kay Bailey Hutchinson, the Texas Senator is a possiblity, but she strikes me as so old school that her personna would undo that advantages that a woman would bring.

BTW - Great speech by Joe Biden. He made this feel like a convention for the first time. And Barack joined him on stage. Finally, some energy from these folks.

Sister Maya

I forgot all about Barack's sister, Maya Soetoro. Did you see her?

Up with America

Dennis Kucinich gave a lively speech at the Denver convention. He looks like a bit of a dope, but at least there's some fire.

Barack OBlunder

Susan Estrich writes today about the blunder that the convention has been, thus far, for Barack.

Democrats might not be united behind Barack Obama, but they are certainly united in what they think about George Bush and the GOP. What Obama needed in this convention was an effective assault on George Bush and John McCain, an argument, repeated over and over again — the way negative ads have to be in order to work — about why McCain was wrong, why he was tied to the high gas prices and faltering economy and failing war and mounting foreclosures and ridiculous health care bills that the majority of Americans are most concerned with.

The key phrase in that paragraph is "over and over again." This has been a convention without a theme. Tonight that will change, presumably, when Joe Biden hits the stage and does the old "4 more years of Bush" routine on John McCain, but even that speech will follow Bill Clinton's address, which will surely get lots of coverage through the evening and for tomorrow's news cycle.

That message has been heard on occasion, but it has not been the message of this Convention. Not even close.

The story coming out of this Convention is not Obama v. McCain, much less the follies of McCain and Bush, but Clinton v. Obama.

That has been the story - and that story is likely to continue as we pick apart Bill's performance tonight and compare it to Hillary's.

That was inevitable once the schedule was set, probably inevitable once the Obama team decided they didn't have to take on Hillary's debt and didn't have to treat her with kid gloved respect with which winners usually treat losers who have a lot of delegates.

This convention is one of Barack's first big leadership challenges, as he's a man with no leadership experience. How did he screw up the whole thing with the Clintons?

They didn't reach out to her delegates and donors and make them feel like they were important. As late as a week before the Convention, Barack Obama himself was saying that they were dealing with Hillary's top staff, not her supporters. Big mistake. Almost as big as thinking you can control Bill Clinton. It is nothing short of unbelievable to me that they thought, until Monday, that they could tell Bill Clinton what to say. Why would he listen?

There's another big mistake, of course, and that is the decision to hold a coronation speech in front of 75,000 people tomorrow night. Barack as a rock star has been effectively devalued by the McCain campaign, and turned into a negative.

If Barack Obama could have moved his acceptance speech to a school auditorium or a factory floor, that would have been great. Turning it into a rock concert is not so great. He doesn't need to look like a guy who can hold a crowd of 70,000. Everyone knows that. The question is whether that's all he can do.

The McCain campaign is very good now at making Barack suffer for his mistakes, and surely he will be well mocked for the stadium speech, and for the mausoleum that he'll be speaking from.

The McCain people are spinning that Obama will come out of the Convention with a fifteen-point lead. They know full well that there is no chance of that. The only question is whether he'll come out with any significant lead at all, and how long it will take the Republicans who convene next week in the Twin Cities to slash into it.

The Next Election

Hillary played it beautifully last night - she did everything she could for Barack. As a result, Barack suffers. This was the delightful situation in which she found herself.

...last night she hit all the right notes, delivering a speech remarkably free of any sense of defeat, self-pity or what-might-have-beens. She thanked the 18 million Americans who supported her in the primaries, but then all but commanded them to put aside their displeasure with the outcome and get behind the Illinois senator as he leads the party into battle.

She couldn't do anything overt to sabotage Barack, or she would have likewise sabotaged her own presidential future.

...unlike many past losing candidates in both parties – notably Gov. Ronald Reagan in 1976, Sen. Edward Kennedy in 1980, Sen. Gary Hart in 1984 – she performed last night in a way that will make it difficult for anyone to blame her if the nominee loses in the fall.

By being poised, professional and graceful, she highlighted Barack's beginner status, and ignited nostalgia in supporters who hadn't even been missing her. Professionalism and experience are awfully nice qualities for a leader to have when you're going into battle.

Clinton's target was that 53 percent of her supporters thus far resistant to Obama's appeal. In the speech, she challenged them to rise above personal pique and focus on the greater good that could be done by an Obama presidency.

No one knows how those voters will react. But Obama should know that the burden now shifts to him. If he wants these voters, he has to win them over. Clinton can't do it for him.

There lies the irony. Everyone was looking for Hillary to give a great, rousing endorsement of Barack, as if that would then deliver her supporters. But she can't control her supporters. The best she good do was not try to tear them away, to not overtly attempt to instigate a movement against him.

By doing her part to help Barack, she may, in fact, have hurt him still... reminding Democrats of just how silly it was to fall for Hope, and leaving viewers with the clear image of an experienced performer against which to compare Barack.

Last night, Hillary did what any smart politician would do. When given a forum, they're using it to benefit their next campaign. Think of last night as Hillary's announcement speech for 2012, when she will seek to unseat John McCain.

Hillary Video

Here's the video shown last night to introduce Hillary. A proper video, unlike the Obama piece the night before, filled with inspiration, history and purpose.

It places Hillary at the head of the movement for equality for women, taking her ambition and wrapping it in the attractive paper of serving others. On a smaller level, it makes Hillary a cog in a family wheel, each generation working to empower the next - in this case, launching the intriguing sub-plot of Chelsea as Hillary's successor.


Hats off to the producers of this piece. While not of Oscar quality, in contrast to the Ken Burns piece from Monday night, this was genius. Of course, the Hillary production team had the advantage of working for a candidate who has experience to sift mine.