23 Points

Catholic voters are good predictors of national elections, says George Stephanopoulos on the news tonight. He's right.

“The Catholic vote has been the classic swing vote in American presidential politics. In the last nine Presidential elections, the candidate who won the Catholic vote has won the popular vote nationwide.

The latest ABC News poll shows McCain/Palin leading by 23 points, 59% to 36%, reports George. The story was very different two weeks ago.

Catholic voters, who make up 25% of the American electorate, are currently splitting their vote for president between Barack Obama and John McCain, but are united in their aversion to mixing religion and politics.

What's the difference? Sarah Palin? Probably. ABC is reporting again tonight on the 20 point swing amongst women, post convention. Perhaps that's where the big Catholic move is coming from.

“White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama’s favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that’s one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences,” writes ABC’s political analyst Gary Langer. “The other, also to McCain’s advantage, is in the battleground Midwest, where he’s moved from a 19-point deficit to a 7-point edge.”

McCain's Palin Bump

The GOP convention was the launch pad that the McCain campaign had hoped for, fueled by the inclusion of Sarah Palin. A new USA/Today poll, conducted by Gallup, indicates a bump of about 11%.

The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year.

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

The news gets even more dramatic, however.

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote.

Republicans are fired up in a way that seemed impossible before Sarah.

Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%.

What do folks say about Sarah?

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a national unknown before McCain chose her for the ticket 10 days ago, draws a strong reaction from voters on both sides. Now, 29% say she makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 21% less likely.

Obama's choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as running mate made 14% more likely to vote for the Democrat, 7% less likely.

Bounce Away, Bounce Here.

Barack's convention bounce has been wiped out, even though viewers of McCain's Thursday night speech won't be fully included in the Tracking Poll results until tomorrow's update. Earlier, Rasmussen called the race a tie, and now

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama, 48% to 45%, when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the presidential election were held today.

This is a big move for McCain, showing the excitement created by Sarah Palin's addition to the ticket, and a very strong convention.

It is the largest advantage for McCain, though still within the 2-point margin of error, since May.

The 48 percent also registers the largest raw number McCain has received in the poll since Gallup started its daily tracking of the two presidential candidates in March. McCain matched that number in May.

The next few days will be needed to allow the impacts of the conventions to be fleshed out in the polls.

It also marks the expected bounce for the Republican coming immediately out of the convention. Obama experienced a similar bounce following the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention in Denver the week before. At that time, he led McCain 49-43 percent.

Also, a new Zogby poll shows McCain holding a 4 point lead.

Razz

In today's Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll, Sarah Palin has pulled the presidential race back into a tie.

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after Sarah Palin’s acceptance speech, Barack Obama gets 46% of the vote and so does John McCain. When "leaners" are included, it’s all even at 48%.

Now that the Barack convention bounce has been erased, we'll see over the next couple of days if the McCain/Palin bounce has energy enough to create a lead.

Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, tomorrow (Monday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the net impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear.

The new Zogby poll, noted in the next post down, shows McCain/Palin leading by 4%.

Four Points

A week ago, John McCain had a two point lead over Team Obama in the Zogby poll. This week, the Republican ticket has moved into a 4 point lead.

The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.

More meaningful than the bottom line of the poll is what's inside it. The GOP convention was effective in boosting McCain's popularity and introducing Sarah Palin to the country.

McCain's favorability rating increased from 50% favorable last week to 57% favorable now, a significant jump that indicates the GOP convention was a success. Among independent voters, 61% now have a favorable impression of him, compared to just 49% who said the same a week ago.

We keep hearing how this election will be decided by independent voters - who now have an astounding 61% favorable impression of McCain compared to 47% for Barack.

Nearly half - 49% - said they had a favorable opinion of Barack Obama, while 50% they had a negative impression of him. Among independent voters, 47% gave him favorable marks, compared to 46% who said the same thing last week.

Voters are also feeling very good about Palin.

Among the vice presidential candidates, 54% said they now hold a favorable view of Palin, while 42% hold an unfavorable view. While 49% have a favorable opinion of Joe Biden, 47% hold an unfavorable view of him.

Just one week ago, 23% told Zogby that they did not know enough about Palin to make a judgment about whether they held a favorable or unfavorable view of her - but this most recent survey shows just 4% were unfamiliar with her - another indication that likely voters paid attention to the GOP convention this week, which won the highest television viewership numbers ever earned by an American political convention.

Bounce Over

In the wake of the CBS poll showing the presidential race has pulled back to even, the more reliable Rasmussen daily tracking poll reinforces that things are heading McCain's way.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows the beginning of John McCain’s convention bounce and the race is essentially back where it was before Obama now attracts 46% of the vote while McCain earns 45%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48%, McCain 46%.

Of the two tickets, guess which politician is the most popular, Barack or John McCain? Neither.

Both Obama and McCain are now viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters. However, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 58%--a point more than either Presidential hopeful. Forty percent (40%) have a Very Favorable opinion of her.

Is Sarah finding acceptance?

Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters now believe that McCain made the right choice when he picked Palin to be his running mate while 32% disagree. By way of comparison, 47% said that Obama made the right choice by picking Delaware Senator Joe Biden as his running mate. 

Who is better prepared to be President - Barack, or Sarah? Despite two years of campaigning, Barack has only fooled half the people into thinking that he's as qualified as the unknown candidate, Palin.

Voters are evenly divided as to whether Palin or Obama has the better experience to be President.

Sarah Smile

Now there are two polls out showing that Barack's bounce is gone. Earlier Sunday afternoon, the Zogby poll gave McCain a 2 point lead, and now the CNN/Opinion Research poll, released Sunday evening, confirms that Barack's ride was a short one.

With a survey of voters taken Friday through today, the results show that 49 percent said they support the Democratic presidential ticket Barack Obama and Joe Biden and 48 percent support the Republican team of John McCain and Sarah Palin.

Maybe it was Palin?

Maybe, maybe not - the favorable rating on McCain's running-mate pick is running at 52 percent. The voters surveyed were asked to rate McCain's choice of Palin, announced on Friday after Obama's convention ended. Only 27 percent called it excellent and 25 percent called it good - that's a 52-percent positive. But 21 percent called it a fair pick and 25 percent called it a poor pick - a 46 percent negative.

The Palin Effect

The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll confirms the results of the Rasmussen tracker - while Barack got a bump of several points from the Bill and Hillary Clinton days of the convention, day four, featuring The Messiah himself, brought him no increase in support.

Barack Obama maintains an eight percentage point lead over John McCain when registered voters nationwide are asked whom they would vote for in the presidential election if it were held today, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking figures.

It appears we can credit the Palin Effect, along with the clever VP announcement handling of the McCain team, with having nipped Barack's growth in the bud. The numbers will likely pull closer together by the beginning of the week.

Rasmussen also didn't change the day after Barack's big speech.

The numbers are little changed since yesterday and show Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 43%.

Scroll down for more poll results.

Nice Speech, No Bump

The Barack Speech surge didn't happen according to the Rasmussen poll.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday is the first to include reaction to both Barack Obama’s acceptance speech and John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin to be his running mate. The numbers are little changed since yesterday and show Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 45% (see recent daily results).

The daily tracking poll is three days of polling combined. On day one, the race was even, on day two, Barack got a four point bounce from the convention, but last night's polling, which should have shown a huge bump from Thursday night's Obama speech, was flat. Nice speech, no bump. The point goes to McCain for the Palin pick, and for grabbing back control of the news cycle.

Obama currently leads by thirteen points among women while McCain leads by six among men. Among white women, the candidates are essentially even while McCain holds a substantial lead among white men.

So far, people are more impressed by Governor Palin than they are by Senator Biden.

Sarah Palin made a good first impression. She was unknown nationally before being introduced as the GOP Vice-Presidential pick but is now viewed favorably by 53% of voters nationwide. Her counterpart, Joe Biden, is viewed favorably by 48%. While Palin has made a good first impression, the more significant numbers will come a week from now after the nation has a chance to learn more about her.

Gustav's Bounce

Will McCain get his bounce sharing the headlines with Gustav?

There is no question that Gustav will be a destructive hurricane by the time it reaches the U.S. Gulf Coast early next week. The question remains, will Hanna bring more destruction by late next week?

The specter of Gustav and the danger it poses to the Gulf Coast grows tonight as the nation marked the third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina Friday, regarded as one of the most destructive natural disasters in U.S. history.

As Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet explained, "This storm will be destructive. Where it goes will determine whether it knocks down trees and floods bayous, or whether it destroys communities."

Tighter Still

Barack had a short-lived bump, with a Gallup poll of registered voters showing him with a 9 point lead a few days ago. Now it's down to four, with Rasmussen at 2%.

Take a look at this ominous stat:

In the race for the White House, there are nearly twice as many uncommitted voters as there were four years ago in late July (see other recent demographic highlights). While much has been made of John McCain’s struggles with his party’s conservative base, 33% of the uncommitted voters are Democrats while only 19% are Republicans.

Registered Democrats are unsure about Barack.

The Faux Bump

Just because Barack's overseas trip doesn't appear to have improved his lot significantly doesn't mean that it wasn't beneficial. Longterm, it will likely contribute to an improvement in voters' perceptions of his Gravitas. But the bump was a short one - with Rasmussen showing a one point race.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that Barack Obama’s Berlin bounce is gone. Obama now attracts 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46%. Compared to a week ago, Obama has gained a single percentage point (see recent daily results).

More important than the trip, however, is what it reveals - that there is strong voter resistance to the notion of Barack. A glass ceiling - an wall that can't be seen, but stops his movement cold. It's been like this since mid-March, and the appearance of Jeremiah Wright.

However, the week’s polling showed a roller-coaster of opinion surrounding Obama’s big speech. The event in Berlin was well-covered and initial reviews on the speech were positive. Polling on Thursday and Friday nights was very strong for the Democrat, leading to a six-point advantage in our Saturday morning release. However, polling for the past three days shows no trace of a bounce. The data looks very similar to results from the period preceding the speech and, with fourteen weeks to go, the race for the White House is a toss-up.

McCain is more popular amongst his party members than is Barack with Democrats, and McCain is just as popular with independents.

Obama earns the vote from 78% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.

While Democrats will automatically assume that racism provides Barack his barrier, the polls indicate that Barack does better with white voters than George W. did in either 2000 or 2004.

McCain leads 50% to 44% among White voters and 51% to 43% among men. Obama leads 51% to 42% among women and 92% to 5% among African-Americans (see other recent demographic highlights).

As I posted earlier - "It's entirely unlikely that an unknown quantity like Barack, with no leadership experience and a checkered collection of allies - including links to anti-American radicalism - two Muslim fathers, a Muslim sounding name and a groundbreaking racial configuration can capture the hearts of America, even given the huge structural advantage that any Democrat enjoys today."

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 54%.

Short Bounce

Barack's bounce appears to be fading already. Yesterday, he had a 5 point lead from Rasmussen and a 9 point lead from Gallup, but today offers a different picture.

Gallup has dropped, but just one point, to an 8% lead for Barack. But Rasmussen goes back to 3% for Obama.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that Barack Obama’s Berlin bounce is fading. Obama now attracts 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 45%. Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 56% of voters.

But here's the most remarkable news. Another Gallup poll, done for USA Today, shows McCain in the lead!!!

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.

That's a 10 point swing in just a month - and, these numbers were collected Friday thru Sunday, when Barack was at the peak of his Overseas Buzz. Which puts Barack into very tight territory in the Real Clear Politics average of current polls.

With today's Rasmussen and Gallup tracking both ticking down for Obama (-2 and -1, respectively) and a new Dem Corps poll showing Obama up five, the new RCP National Average has Obama's lead over McCain dipping to 3.2%.

Gallup Uptick Continues

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama now leads John McCain among national registered voters by a 49% to 40% margin in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted July 24-26.

Barack's bounce appears to still be on the upswing, at least among registered voters tallied by Gallup. Rasmussen still has the race at 5 points. Either way, Barack has regained the position he had in early July, which had been fading of late.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama attracts 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 44%. McCain’s numbers are up a point from yesterday while Obama’s remain unchanged. Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 55%.

The contrast between the polls is worth noting. The Gallup bounce is bigger, presumably because voters who are less likely to vote are included. Rasmussen tests for a respondent's likelihood of voting, which buffers the impact because those likely to vote are, we assume, better informed.

These numbers could be the start of a longterm trend in Barack's favor, or perhaps they'll start moving downward this week. That remains to be seen. But the power of having a purposeful campaign, something that John McCain still lacks, is well displayed by this movement.