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If you really want to upset the Barack supporters in your life, send them a link to this.

It's a Tie

The fallout from McCain's mishandling of the economy conversation over the past 8 or 9 days peaked a few days ago, according to the polls, when Barack retook the lead and stretched it to 6 points in the Gallup poll. Today....

Obama's three percentage point advantage over McCain in today's report,
based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Sept. 20-22, is within the margin of error for the survey. Obama led the race by a slightly greater margin of four and six points
in each of the previous five Gallup Poll Daily election updates (starting with
last Thursday's report).

Rasmussen has the race even.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows the
race for the White House is tied once again—Barack Obama
attracts 48% of the vote and so does John McCain (see trends). Both men are now viewed favorably by 54% and Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Obama a 52.4% chance of victory.

Friday night, which will bring the first debate, could send the campaign off on a new trajectory.

With the race so close, the debates scheduled to begin this Friday night could
be more significant than usual. That’s especially true since 18% of voters say
they are either uncommitted or could change their mind before voting.

Poll Update

All polls from the last couple of days show McCain leading a bit, but the numbers are small enough so you should think about this as a tied race.

Rasmussen Tracking	09/09 - 09/11	3000 LV	48	45	McCain +3
Gallup Tracking	09/08 - 09/10	2718 RV	48	44	McCain +4
Hotline/FD Tracking	09/08 - 09/10	902 RV	46	44	McCain +2
FOX News	09/08 - 09/09	900 RV	45	42	McCain +3

The Sarah Palin effect has been enormous. It has 1) tied the race, 2) swung the cameras off of Barack and onto the McCain/Palin ticket, 3) energized Republicans, and 4) made affiliating with the GOP seem more desirable.

In recent months, polls have shown that voters prefer Democrats over Republicans this election year by 10 to 15%. That has changed.

A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters' "generic ballot" preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

We have all been expecting that Democrats will assume strong control of Congress even if Barack loses the presidential election, as I expect he will. What if the anti-GOP feeling has run its course already?

Democratic voters are nearly uniform in their support for the Democratic candidate in their congressional districts (92%), Republican voters are nearly uniform in their support for the Republican candidate (94%), and independents are closely split, with 44% backing the Democrat and 40% the Republican.

One caveat to keep in mind - it is too soon after the conventions for reality to have set back into the numbers. Take these indications with a larger grain of salt than usual.

Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.

That, my friend, is an incredible turn of events.

The sustainability of all of these findings is an open question that polling will answer over the next few weeks.

Bounce Over

John McCain's bounce is no longer rising. In today's Gallup daily tracking poll, he's up 5% again. And the Rasmussen daily tracker, the least bouncy poll, has gone from a 1% McCain lead to a tie.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows the race for the White House is tied once again. John McCain and Barack Obama now each attract 46% of the vote. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 48% and Obama 48%.

Despite all the excitement over Sarah Palin, and the hige audience for the GOP convention, the race goes into its final 8 week sprint with things about even.

One week ago today, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage.

The good news for McCain is a new found energy, and more excitement in the base.

23 Points

Catholic voters are good predictors of national elections, says George Stephanopoulos on the news tonight. He's right.

“The Catholic vote has been the classic swing vote in American presidential politics. In the last nine Presidential elections, the candidate who won the Catholic vote has won the popular vote nationwide.

The latest ABC News poll shows McCain/Palin leading by 23 points, 59% to 36%, reports George. The story was very different two weeks ago.

Catholic voters, who make up 25% of the American electorate, are currently splitting their vote for president between Barack Obama and John McCain, but are united in their aversion to mixing religion and politics.

What's the difference? Sarah Palin? Probably. ABC is reporting again tonight on the 20 point swing amongst women, post convention. Perhaps that's where the big Catholic move is coming from.

“White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama’s favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that’s one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences,” writes ABC’s political analyst Gary Langer. “The other, also to McCain’s advantage, is in the battleground Midwest, where he’s moved from a 19-point deficit to a 7-point edge.”

McCain's Palin Bump

The GOP convention was the launch pad that the McCain campaign had hoped for, fueled by the inclusion of Sarah Palin. A new USA/Today poll, conducted by Gallup, indicates a bump of about 11%.

The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year.

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

The news gets even more dramatic, however.

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote.

Republicans are fired up in a way that seemed impossible before Sarah.

Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%.

What do folks say about Sarah?

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a national unknown before McCain chose her for the ticket 10 days ago, draws a strong reaction from voters on both sides. Now, 29% say she makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 21% less likely.

Obama's choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as running mate made 14% more likely to vote for the Democrat, 7% less likely.

Bounce Away, Bounce Here.

Barack's convention bounce has been wiped out, even though viewers of McCain's Thursday night speech won't be fully included in the Tracking Poll results until tomorrow's update. Earlier, Rasmussen called the race a tie, and now

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama, 48% to 45%, when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the presidential election were held today.

This is a big move for McCain, showing the excitement created by Sarah Palin's addition to the ticket, and a very strong convention.

It is the largest advantage for McCain, though still within the 2-point margin of error, since May.

The 48 percent also registers the largest raw number McCain has received in the poll since Gallup started its daily tracking of the two presidential candidates in March. McCain matched that number in May.

The next few days will be needed to allow the impacts of the conventions to be fleshed out in the polls.

It also marks the expected bounce for the Republican coming immediately out of the convention. Obama experienced a similar bounce following the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention in Denver the week before. At that time, he led McCain 49-43 percent.

Also, a new Zogby poll shows McCain holding a 4 point lead.

Barack's Shrinking Lead

The three day Gallup tracking poll has tightened up considerably since the start of the Republican convention, with Barack now showing just a 2 point lead over McCain - 47% to 45%.

Obama had led McCain by as much as eight percentage points in recent days, both during and immediately after the Democratic National Convention in Denver. Those results reflected a convention bounce for Obama of four percentage points in his support among registered voters (from 45% to 49%). It appears that McCain is now enjoying a rebound bounce coming out of the Republican National Convention in St. Paul that is nullifying some of Obama's gains.

Many of the people surveyed in this poll were interviewed before either Palin's or McCain's speeches.

The interviewing for today's report partially reflects public opinion following the highlights of the Republican National Convention on Wednesday and Thursday nights when McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, made their acceptance speeches. This includes a strong night for McCain in Friday's interviewing, the first full night of interviewing following his acceptance speech.

Monday is the first day that the tracking polls will reflect entirely surveys taken after the conclusion of the GOP convention, so that's when we'll start to get a true sense of the McCain/Palin bounce.

The first Gallup Poll Daily tracking report based on interviewing conducted entirely after McCain's speech (from Friday through Sunday) will be published on Monday. The test for McCain will be whether he can do more than return the race to the absolute tie seen at the beginning of the convention period, and actually lead Obama by a significant margin for the first time since late April/early May.

Obama isn't taking the turn of events laying down - he's out fighting to defend himself as the agent of change.

“Don’t be fooled,” a particularly punchy Obama told a crowd this morning at a town hall meeting in Terre Haute, Ind. “These are the folks who have been in charge. John McCain’s party, with the help of John McCain, has been in charge.”

“Words mean something!” Obama said of Palin's reputation as an anti-earmark champion. “You can’t just make stuff up.”

As always, the McCain camp is ready with its own rebuttal.

“Barack Obama has requested the equivalent of $1 million in new pork-barrel spending for every working day he's been in the U.S. Senate, while John McCain has never once asked for an earmark, and Gov. Palin has vetoed hundreds of millions in government spending including killing the infamous 'Bridge to Nowhere',” Bounds wrote in an email response. “Just like so many other issues Barack Obama is all talk, has no record to back it up and isn't ready to make change."

Like Barack says - "you can't just make stuff up."

Bounce Over

In the wake of the CBS poll showing the presidential race has pulled back to even, the more reliable Rasmussen daily tracking poll reinforces that things are heading McCain's way.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows the beginning of John McCain’s convention bounce and the race is essentially back where it was before Obama now attracts 46% of the vote while McCain earns 45%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48%, McCain 46%.

Of the two tickets, guess which politician is the most popular, Barack or John McCain? Neither.

Both Obama and McCain are now viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters. However, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 58%--a point more than either Presidential hopeful. Forty percent (40%) have a Very Favorable opinion of her.

Is Sarah finding acceptance?

Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters now believe that McCain made the right choice when he picked Palin to be his running mate while 32% disagree. By way of comparison, 47% said that Obama made the right choice by picking Delaware Senator Joe Biden as his running mate. 

Who is better prepared to be President - Barack, or Sarah? Despite two years of campaigning, Barack has only fooled half the people into thinking that he's as qualified as the unknown candidate, Palin.

Voters are evenly divided as to whether Palin or Obama has the better experience to be President.

Sarah Smile

Now there are two polls out showing that Barack's bounce is gone. Earlier Sunday afternoon, the Zogby poll gave McCain a 2 point lead, and now the CNN/Opinion Research poll, released Sunday evening, confirms that Barack's ride was a short one.

With a survey of voters taken Friday through today, the results show that 49 percent said they support the Democratic presidential ticket Barack Obama and Joe Biden and 48 percent support the Republican team of John McCain and Sarah Palin.

Maybe it was Palin?

Maybe, maybe not - the favorable rating on McCain's running-mate pick is running at 52 percent. The voters surveyed were asked to rate McCain's choice of Palin, announced on Friday after Obama's convention ended. Only 27 percent called it excellent and 25 percent called it good - that's a 52-percent positive. But 21 percent called it a fair pick and 25 percent called it a poor pick - a 46 percent negative.

Double Even

Yesterday, Gallup showed the presidential race as a tie, while Rasmussen's Daily Tracking Poll had a 3 point lead for Obama. Today, the lead for Obama is gone.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain also earns 44%. When "leaners" are included, it’s still tied with Obama at 46% and McCain at 46%.

McCain continues to do better with Republicans than does Barack with Democrats.

Obama is supported by 78% of Democrats while McCain gets the vote from 85% of Republicans. The GOP hopeful also has a slight advantage among unaffiliated voters.

Is Hillary the reason for Barack's drop?

Obama’s support has declined in each of the last three individual nights of polling. This may be either statistical noise or a reaction to the selection of Biden. If it’s the latter, it probably has less to do with Biden than Hillary Clinton. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Democratic women say Clinton should have been picked and 21% of them say they’ll vote for McCain.

Rasmussen's state by state analysis no longer shows Barack with an electoral college victory. With leaning states included, the tally is Obama 264, McCain 247.

Barack is running 11% behind generic congressional Democrats.

Tie

It's not just Gallup - now a new CNN/Opinion Research Poll also shows the race tied.

The first national poll conducted after Barack Obama publicly named Joe Biden as his running mate suggests that the battle for the presidency between the Illinois senator and John McCain is all tied up.

In a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Sunday night, 47 percent of those questioned are backing Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominees, with an equal amount supporting his Republican opponent, McCain.

This creates a unique moment going into the conventions, with Barack having completed a month of disorganized flatfootedness.

"This looks like a step backward for Obama, who had a 51 to 44 percent advantage last month," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Even last week, just before his choice of Joe Biden as his running mate became known, most polls tended to show Obama with a single-digit advantage over McCain."

Over the past two months, you would think that Barack would have healed the gulf with Hillary supporters. Incredibly, things have gone in the other direction.

Sixty-six percent of Clinton supporters -- registered Democrats who want Clinton as the nominee -- are now backing Obama. That's down from 75 percent in the end of June. Twenty-seven percent of them now say they'll support McCain, up from 16 percent in late June.

"The number of Clinton Democrats who say they would vote for McCain has gone up 11 points since June, enough to account for most, although not all, of the support McCain has gained in that time," Holland said.

Gallup

The Gallup tracking poll has gone from a 6 point lead for Obama to a tie over the past two days.

PRINCETON, NJ -- If the election were held today, registered voters would be equally likely to vote for John McCain (44%) or Barack Obama (44%), according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update.

And Rasmussen has the race at 2 points, Obama.

Despite the Russian invasion of Georgia, daily tracking data shows no shift in voter priorities for Election 2008. Forty-one percent (41%) say economic issues are most important while just 22% name national security issues as the top priority (See Daily Snapshot).

Scared By the Numbers

The Obama campaign saw the numbers, and caved.

With the World Tour having failed to deliver a boost, poll numbers have dropped back to an even race with John McCain.

Barack's strategy? Abandon another position.

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama said Friday he would be willing to support limited additional offshore oil drilling if that's what it takes to enact a comprehensive policy to foster fuel-efficient autos and develop alternate energy sources.

With the only philosophy that Barack holds dear being his own victory, he dumps another policy position, and again throws his core supporters under the bus.

Shifting from his previous opposition to expanded offshore drilling, the Illinois senator told a Florida newspaper he could get behind a compromise with Republicans and oil companies to prevent gridlock over energy.

Another demonstration of the new kinda politics?

Republican rival John McCain, who earlier dropped his opposition to offshore drilling, has been criticizing Obama on the stump and in broadcast ads for clinging to his opposition as gasoline prices topped $4 a gallon. Polls indicate these attacks have helped McCain gain ground on Obama.

Tie

From a 9 point Obama lead at the end of his world tour last weekend, the Gallup poll now shows the race in a dead heat. Rasmussen has it as a 1 point Obama lead.

Voters continue to have stronger opinions about Obama than McCain. Thirty-two percent (32%) have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democrat while 27% have a Very Unfavorable opinion. For McCain, the numbers are 19% Very Favorable and 17% Very Unfavorable.

Ouch!

So much for Berlin! Rasmussen's Daily Tracking Poll remains at a 2% Obama lead, but Gallup, which had Barack up by 8 points over the weekend, now shows him with just a one point lead.

The race for the presidency has moved back into a statistical tie in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update of national registered voters, with Barack Obama now ahead of John McCain by just one percentage point, 45% to 44%.

What was the effect, then, of Barack's World Tour?

"Did Obama's trip help his standing with the public on foreign policy issues? Not really," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Obama has not picked up any ground against McCain on foreign issues, and some 52 percent think McCain would do a better job than Obama on the war in Iraq, virtually the same number who felt that way in April." Watch Obama's speech in Berlin »

Are Americans ready to embrace Barack as Commander in Chief?

The poll also shows McCain with an edge on terrorism, Iran, Afghanistan and the Middle East. Every foreign policy and national security issue tested tilts toward McCain: terrorism, Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East, Iran and immigration.