We're Number 1

Who was right when it came to predicting the outcome of the presidential race? I was.

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate?

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

Here at BWL, the focus was on Rasmussen, which I told you often was the best of the polls, in my opinion. We focused on Rasmussen along with Gallup and Zogby.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama's strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points -- 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama's final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two -- Rasmussen and Pew -- were spot on.

Here is the list --

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

On the other hand, I told you that Barack was unelectable. But I stand by that position, even given the results on Tuesday.

Razz Wrap

The final Rasmussen poll is out, and it shows a 6% advantage for Barack.

The final Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Election 2008 shows Barack Obama with 52% of the vote while John McCain is six points back at 46%. One percent (1%) of voters say they’ll select a third-party option while 1% remain undecided. Tomorrow, at 9:30 a.m. Eastern, we will release our final Election Night poll results offering a look at what voters were thinking as they cast their ballots.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of voters cast their ballots early this year and those voters favored Obama by a double-digit margin. Among those who will actually cast their ballots on Tuesday, the candidates are essentially even.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters spent at least an hour discussing the election on Monday while another 20% spent a half hour on the topic.

Fifty-six percent (56%) have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama while 55% say the same about John McCain.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters expect to see an Obama victory today, including 18% who anticipate a landslide for the Democrat.

Ever Wondered?

(Please read this with Andy Rooney's voice in your head.)

Have you ever noticed that the polls that show Barack with the biggest lead come from the big liberal news media? The only polls other than Gallup that indicate higher than a 7% Obama lead are from NBC/WSJ at 8%, ABC/Washington Post at 11%, and CBS News at 13%.

To be fair, I've got to ask the same question in reverse - is it an accident that Fox News is at 3% in favor of Barack, while Investors Business Daily is showing him ahead by 2%?

Have you ever wondered why?

(You may now shut off your Rooney voice, if you can.)

Rasmussen stays at 6% today, Zogby is at 7%, while Gallup finishes its polling season predicting an Obama victory, showing him leading by 11%. Not one poll shows McCain ahead.

Surge, or Purge???

The surge worked for Iraq, but it's not working for McCain. His move up in the polls from last weekend petered out during the week, and weekend numbers, which generally favor the Democrats, are showing a stalled race. The Real Clear Politics tally shows an average lead of 6.7% for Barack, and today's Rasmussen report remains at 5%.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday once again shows Barack Obama with 51% of the vote while John McCain is five points back at 46%. This is the 38th straight day that Obama’s support has stayed between 50% and 52% (see trends).

For the past seven days, Obama has been ahead by three to five points. For the month before that, the Democratic nominee was up by four to eight points every day.

A McCain win rests in the hands of some unforeseen circumstance - large numbers of voters who've been claiming falsely that they're planning to vote for Barack, a failure of the youth vote to get out of bed on Tuesday, or perhaps an electorate that's so excited by the race that McCain voters, who would normally be sitting the race out, show up to cast a ballot.

Obama is now viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide, McCain by 53% (see trends). Obama gets positive reviews from 88% of Democrats and 56% of unaffiliated voters. Ninety percent (90%) of Republicans and 55% of unaffiliateds say the same about McCain. Obama leads by ten among women but trails by two among men.

While McCain could still win on Tuesday, the odds tilted severely against him when the economic meltdown occurred in September.

The economy remains the top issue of Election 2008 for 46% of voters. Just 20% see national security as the top priority. The importance of the economic issue is highlighted by the fact that McCain was leading by three points in mid-September just before Lehman Brothers collapsed and made public the depth of Wall Street’s problems. Shortly after that, Obama moved ahead and has enjoyed a stable lead that has lasted into the final weekend of Election 2008.

I'm still expecting the country to come to its senses on Tuesday - I have trouble imagining people being dumb enough to vote the Democrats into total control - so we'll just have to wait and see.

Now My Advice to Those Who Die...

While John McCain has made some effort to claim the mantle of the Reagan legacy, he hasn't done much of anything to sell Americans on the idea. The dummies running McCain's campaign have sat still and allowed Barack, the big government liberal who will surely expand the size of government if elected, to become the choice of those who want lower taxes.

It is impossible to overstate the importance of Obama's tax cut promise to his current lead in the polls. Thirty-one percent (31%) of voters now believe that their taxes will go down if Obama is elected. Only 11% believe that will happen if McCain wins (see crosstabs). Obama has made remarkable progress on this issue in recent months. In August, only 9% believed Obama would cut their taxes.

Which explains why McCain has made some inroads with Joe the Plumber driven economic talk. Joe's conversation with the Democratic nominee, caught on tape for the world to behold, outed Barack as the tax and spend, spread the wealth liberal that he is. McCain has been wise to capitalize.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) believe their taxes will go up in an Obama Administration while 26% say the same about McCain.

This could be the biggest brand theft in American political history - all accomplished with a simple twist of the standard Democratic promise of higher taxes. Barack's pledge - I'm going to raise taxes, just not yours. The Dems have done a good job playing class warfare through the Bush years, and Barack is collecting the payoff.

Nearly a third of voters say they have already cast their ballot and Obama leads by nine among this group. Obama also has a similar lead among the small group who have not voted but still plan to vote early. The candidates are essentially even among those who plan to vote on Tuesday.

The Rasmussen tracker shows Barack up 5%, failing to confirm the surprising results obtained by Zogby yesterday.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama with 51% of the vote, John McCain with 46%. The race continues to remain remarkably stable at the national level--this is the 37th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52% (see trends).

Now my advice for those who die, (Taxman!)
Declare the pennies on your eyes, (Taxman!)
‘Cos I’m the Taxman,
Yeah, I’m the Taxman.
And you’re working for no-one but me,
(Taxman).

Zogby Shocker

The race for president tightens, as the Zogby poll shows McCain cutting two points off Barack's lead. That's good news - but that's not the surprise.

Republican John McCain made a small gain against Democrat Barack Obama and has pulled back within the margin of error, now trailing Obama by five points, 49.1% to 44.1%, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.

This follows a couple of days in which the tracking polls had seemed to indicate an end to a McCain move to close the gap. But the news gets better.

Almost two days worth of the polling -- or about half of the current sample in the three-day rolling poll of likely voters nationwide, was conducted after Obama's 30-minute commercial aired Wednesday evening. There is no evidence it helped him, as he has dropped 1.1 points in the last two days, while McCain has gained 0.8 points during the same period.

And, here's the big news from John Zogby.

"Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all."

That's right - in Friday's numbers, McCain leads Obama by 1%.

Of course, the Friday results may be an anomaly - they do three day tracking polls to buffer against misperceptions that might develop from looking at one day's results. We'll watch eagerly for confirmation from the Rasmussen and Gallup polls, which release later.

Rasmussen showed a 4% Obama lead yesterday, but Gallup had moved to 8%, so the Zogby numbers must be viewed with some caution.

Four

While Zobgy stayed at 7% in favor of Barack today, Rasmussen tightened a bit.

The Rasmussen Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama with 51% of the vote, John McCain with 47%.
Over the past five days, Obama's lead has been between three and five percentage points each day. That's a bit tighter than the four to eight point margins enjoyed by the Democrat for the previous month (see trends).

The tightening comes entirely from McCain solidifying his support. The Arizona Senator has reached the 47% mark on two of the past three days. Prior to that, he had not reached the 47% level of support in over a month. Another way of looking at it is that McCain's support has now stayed at 46% or above for five straight days. Prior to that, McCain had only reached the 46% level four times in a month.
However, while McCain has been solidifying support, Obama has not lost ground.This is the 36th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%.

Razz Too

Rasmussen also moves two points toward Barack today.

After showing the candidates just three points apart yesterday, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll on Thursday returns to the range that has defined the race for over a month. It’s Obama by five, 51% to 46%.

Zogby jumped two points, showing Barack up seven.

This is the 35th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%. With the exception of yesterday, McCain’s support has stayed between 44% and 46% during that stretch (see trends).

Within their own party, both candidates lead by identical 86% to 12% margins while Obama has a six-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

Rasmussen Moves For McCain

Rasmussen operates the most stable, in my estimation, of polls. I like it because it is slow to change - something in their technique apparently buffers the daily fluctuations. Today it moves two points, after having shown a 5% Barack lead for the last two days, and an 8% lead for the two days before that.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 47%. This is the first time McCain has been within three points of Obama in more than a month and the first time his support has topped 46% since September 24.

This represents a crack in the wall of Barack. Getting him to the fifty point range is significant, as George Stephanopoulos observed the other day, as his campaign believes he will finish with a lower vote total than what the closing polls indicate.

Prior to today’s update, Obama had been ahead by four-to-eight points every single day for 33 straight days. During that 33-day stretch, Obama’s voter support had stayed between 50% and 52% every day while McCain was in the 44% to 46% range. It will take another day or so to determine whether today’s numbers reflect a lasting change or statistical noise. Two of the last three nights of polling show a closer race than was found in the previous month. Obama is now viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide, McCain by 54%.

Closer

Drudge says that Zogby's numbers for Tuesday, released daily at 1:30am, will show the race getting one point tighter - to a 4% lead for Barack.

The Monday numbers from Zogby, Rasmussen and Gallup all show just a 5% lead for Obama.

Flawed Constitution

Despite attempts by the media to convince voters that the election is over, we should see things get closer over the last week. Starting from a very close 5 point difference.

Rasmussen Reports	10/24 - 10/26	3000 LV	2.0	51	46	Obama +5
Gallup (Traditional)*	10/24 - 10/26	2448 LV	2.0	50	45	Obama +5

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby

10/24 - 10/26

1203 LV

2.9

50

45

Obama +5

Can McCain use new audio revealing Barack's desire to fundamentially change the country, and the Constitution, to swing 3% of likely voters his way?

Zogby - 5%

On Thursday, the Zogby poll showed Barack up 12 points. It was down to 10%, then 9%, for the next couple of days. Today's number? A 5 point race.

"I have alluded before to this strange, magnetic pull that brings Obama down to 48% or 49%, a danger zone for him. McCain's gains are among white voters, where he now leads by 12 points, and with men, where he again has a healthy lead. There is still a lot of campaign to go. A lot of campaign to go." - John Zogby

Rasmussen shows Barack up 8% again today... and yesterday's Gallup has it a7% game.

"Things are trending back for McCain. His numbers are rising and Obama's are dropping on a daily basis. There seems to be a direct correlation between this and McCain talking about the economy," pollster John Zogby said.

Democrats like to make elections about class warfare, and they've succeeded.

Obama's lead among voters making less than $35,000 per year remains substantial at a little over 70 percent. But McCain, who had previously scored well only with the highest income brackets, now holds slight leads among voters in all income groups starting at $35,000 and above.

"You've got to think that it is tax-and-spend that concerns them. Is McCain starting to connect with the middle class?" Zogby said.

Barack seems to be losing ground with the ladies.

Obama still had solid, if slightly diminished, leads among two important groups which could play pivotal roles in the November 4 election. Among independents he had a 14 point lead, down from a peak of 29 points. Women also still backed Obama by a 14-point margin, down from 20 points late last week.

McCain, who once had a 4-point deficit among male voters, now has a 4-point lead at 48-44 percent. And whites back McCain by a 12-point margin, up from 6 points on Friday.

Criss Cross

Zogby gets closer.

Democrat Barack Obama's lead over Republican rival John McCain fell slightly to 9 points, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released Saturday, the second consecutive day the race has narrowed.

Obama leads McCain by 51 percent to 42 percent in the rolling three-day tracking poll, which has a margin of error of 2.9 points. Obama led by 10 points Friday and 12 points on Thursday.

Of course, the 12% Obama lead seemed off the mark compared to other polls.

Pollster John Zogby said McCain, who had seen his Democratic rival stake out a widening lead as economic issues dominated the campaign, appeared to be winning some converts with his own economic message.

"He scores points when he differentiates himself on the economy and when he lays off the negative. Negative campaigning is not working for anyone this year," Zogby said.

"What's important here is that this race is not over."

Rasmussen moves the other way.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This eight point advantage matches Obama’s biggest lead of the year in a race that has been remarkably stable down the stretch. A week ago today, Obama was up by five. Two weeks ago, he was up by seven.

What has changed is voter certainty.

However, while the overall levels of support have remained stable, voters have become more certain of their intent. Today, the percentage who say they could still change their mind is down to single digits. Forty-eight percent (48%) are now certain they will vote for Obama while 40% say the same about McCain. Nine percent (9%) lean one way or the other but could change their mind. The remaining three percent (3%) are either committed to a third party candidate or remain undecided.

McCain Slide

The Rasmussen is unchanged today - still a 7% lead for Barack.

Today’s results mark the 29th straight day that Obama’s support has stayed between 50% or above 52%. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range every day and the gap between the candidates has ranged from four to eight percentage points.

The Zogby poll has tightened to 10 points for Barack.

Obama leads McCain by 51 percent to 41 percent among likely U.S. voters in the three-day tracking poll, which has a margin of error of 2.9 points. Obama had a 12-point lead on Thursday.

The numbers marked the end of a 4-day slide for McCain, who has seen Obama's lead widen in national surveys as well as polls in many of the battleground states that will decide the November 4 election.

Zag

The polls are all over the place. Zogby up to 12, Rasmussen up a bit to 7, and Gallup drops to a 4% Barack lead. Of the polls that I don't track, Hotline has Barack up 5, and IBD shows him with a 1% lead.

Rasmussen Reports 10/20 - 10/22 3000 LV 2.0 52 45 Obama +7
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/20 - 10/22 2384 LV 2.0 50 46 Obama +4
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/20 - 10/22 2299 LV 2.0 51 45 Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/20-10/22 1208 LV 2.9 52 40 Obama +12
Hotline/FD 10/20 - 10/22 769 LV 3.5 48 43 Obama +5
FOX News 10/20 - 10/21 936 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9
IBD/TIPP 10/18 - 10/22 1088 LV 3.0 45 44 Obama +1
GWU/Battleground 10/16 - 10/22 1000 LV 3.1 49 45 Obama +4

All polls show Barack leading, but only a bit outside the margin of error. Hidden factors, like brow-beaten voters unable to admit to pollsters they're not voting for the PC choice, or last minute fear over electing the guy who has no experience in a time of international monetary crisis, could control the day.

Serious

Zogby - Barack up 12.

Democrat Barack Obama's lead over Republican rival John McCain has grown to 12 points in the U.S. presidential race, with crucial independent and women voters increasingly moving to his side, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Thursday.

With less than two weeks before the November 4 election, Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 40 percent among likely voters in the latest three-day tracking poll, which had a margin of error of 2.9 points.

Obama has made steady gains over the last four days and has tripled his lead on McCain in the past week of polling.

"Obama's expansion is really across the board," pollster John Zogby said. "It seems to be among almost every demographic group."

This represents a 9 point jump over the past several days. In contrast, Gallup and Rasmussen have tightened this week, and a new AP poll has the race at 1% Barack.

The Memo

It looks like AP didn't get the memo. The big news organization has released a poll showing Barack just one point ahead of McCain. Which would explain why Obama had Colin Powell make his announcement on Sunday.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

Don't they know it's a going to be a landslide?

The new AP-GfK head-to-head result is a departure from some, but not all, recent national polls.

Obama and McCain were essentially tied among likely voters in the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican strategist Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake.

The poll was taken for five days, starting last Thursday and ending on Monday.

McCain's strong showing is partly attributable to his strong debate performance; Thursday was his best night of the survey. Obama's best night was Sunday, hours after the Powell announcement, and the full impact of that endorsement may not have been captured in any surveys yet. Future polling could show whether either of those was merely a support "bounce" or something more lasting.

With the latest disaster from Joe Biden creating a new opportunity for McCain to clarify the huge error in judgment Barack showed in choosing Biden, things could swing even more in McCain's direction.

The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters.

Gallup says the race has tightened by two points since yesterday, with Barack up 5%, while Rasmussen has it at 6%.

Be Prepared

The Zogby poll has jumped from a 3 point Obama lead over the weekend to a 10 point lead today. Which means a heightened wave of "It's Over," will be heading our way from the media.

"Obama just keeps growing, he has expanded his lead among almost every major voting group," said pollster John Zogby. "McCain seems to be out of steam for the moment."

Out of steam for the moment, perhaps. But polls are snapshots of the moment, and the vast majority of votes in this election will be cast on November 4, many by citizens who are registered to vote. Until then, we must fight the bad mood that the barrage of tilted media coverage creates. Consider this email, received this morning.

Hi Todd,
I look at your blog several times a day. I read Ann Coulter’s story about the polls and past Presidential elections, and I have to say that every candidate that has lead in the polls whether it be by large or small points since 1976 has always won.

At this point I really don’t know how McCain can win. To say the least it is a great concern for me. The only thing that could possibly happen is the Brady effect.Four years ago there were Kerry signs everywhere but here in Framingham I have only seen a few. I have seen just as many McCain signs as Obama.

I thought maybe there was a huge drop in signs because Kerry is the local guy, but then I heard a Rush caller from Ohio say the exact same thing.I know the reason could go two ways about the lack of signs, but I have to wonder if people are just keeping quiet and will cast their vote for McCain when the time comes.

This is what I’m hoping for.
Thanks, Julie

I remind Julie, and myself, not to allow the media to pull us down. While the fact about polls may seem daunting, we come from Boston where the Patriots were always the worst team (or so it seemed) in football, and the Red Sox would never win another World Series because of the curse of the Bambino.

The Rasmussen poll, which had dropped over the weekend to a four point lead for Barack has jumped back up to 6%. Despite the fact that polls have been swinging back and forth, Rasmussen says the race has been very stable.

It is difficult to overstate the stability of this campaign ever since the events on Wall Street brought a new wave of economic anxiety to the fore. Just before Lehman Brothers collapsed and started the Wall Street debacle, McCain held a very slight lead in the polls. Immediately afterwards, the race became more of a referendum on the Bush Administration and Obama moved ahead. The stability of Obama’s advantage in recent weeks suggests that it will be difficult for McCain to change the dynamic before the results are finally set in stone.

For the past eleven days, Obama has been at the 50% or 51% level of support every day in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. During those same eleven days, McCain has been at 45% or 46% every day and the gap between the candidates has stayed between four and six percentage points.

McCain will win because to vote to be transformed without knowing into what we will be morphed into is simply nuts.

Race Stalled

The Gallup poll is up to a 7% Obama lead today among likely voters, joining Zogby in the swing toward Barack over the past couple of days, while Rasmussen moved down to a 4% Obama lead yesterday.

Among all registered voters, there has been fairly little variation in recent days, with Obama receiving between 50% and 52% of the vote over the last five reports and McCain in a range between 41% and 43%. In the current three-day rolling average of registered voters Obama remains ahead by 52% to 41%, exactly the same as Monday's update.

Perhaps Colin Powell is responsible for stopping the slow move toward McCain. Can the GOP recapture the momentum with things like Joe Biden's warning that electing Barack means trouble? We'll see.

McCain's Move

The polls remain scattered on the presidential race, with the small tilt back toward Barack continuing and signaling that McCain needs something new to close the gap.

Zobgy, which two days ago showed a 3 point lead for Barack, now has the race at 8 points.

Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 42 percent among likely U.S. voters in the latest three-day tracking poll, up from a 6-point advantage for Obama on Monday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

"It was another very big day for Obama," said pollster John Zogby. "Things clearly are moving in Obama's direction."

It was the second consecutive day that Obama gained ground on McCain as the two head into the final sprint to the November 4 election.

Rasmussen, however, continues to show a closer race, still indicating a 4% lead for Barack.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. The race has remained very stable over the past month and Obama’s support has not dipped below 50% in nearly a month (see trends).

Barack is now seen as the better leader. Scary.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters now say that Obama is a better leader than McCain while 42% hold the opposite view. That’s the first time all year that Obama has held the advantage on this question.

And the electoral college tally is strongly in Obama's favor.

Rasmussen Reports data indicates that Obama currently has the edge in every state won by John Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by George Bush, McCain is trailing in four and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 300-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.

Gallup jumped to a 5% lead for Barack yesterday, but they don't update until this afternoon.