Fenced In

During the heat of the debate on illegal immigration in 2006 and 2007, conservatives asked what was wrong with John McCain, George Bush and other Republicans who were so obviously doing the wrong thing for America by supporting amnesty proposals. The answer will become obvious if McCain loses on Tuesday.

I'd be surprised if John McCain wins even 30 percent of the Hispanic vote, through no fault of his own. What a difference four years makes. In 2004, President Bush won 4 in 10 Hispanic votes, and Democrats worried that their long-time dominance among Hispanics was slipping away. But thanks to harsh Republican rhetoric on immigration, Hispanics have since cooled to Republicans, badly damaging McCain's chances to win Colorado, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico.

It's as simple as that. With the country evenly split over the past couple of elections, swinging 10 to 15 percent of the Hispanic vote to the Democrats could seal the deal.

There is much irony here. McCain will be punished even though he was a champion of comprehensive immigration reform. And while the immigration issue will cost McCain some Hispanic votes, it is unlikely to gain Republicans any advantage among other voters. The issue has largely evaporated as a major concern in the general election -- it didn't even come up during the presidential debates.

While illegal immigration diminishes in it's intensity, the political impact of the debate increases.

It's no wonder. Despite hyperbole to the contrary, illegal immigration is actually down significantly from its peak -- which occurred in 2000. The illegal-immigrant population grew about 800,000 persons a year from 2000 to 2005, the Pew Hispanic Center estimates. The numbers have since declined to an average of 500,000 net new illegal immigrants each year. While stepped-up enforcement has played a role, the economic downturn has probably been the chief factor reducing the flow.

This will be a tragic lesson on the power of pander politics. Democrats have been deliberately wrong on immigration in order to win. The Republican candidates who tried to match them are stuck in no-man's land.

LINDA CHAVEZ

Chairman of the Center for Equal Opportunity; member of the Reagan administration

Knuckleheads or Assassins?

A traffic stop in Colorado yesterday yielded what authorities say may have been a plot to assassinate Barack Obama. But their not sure.

“It could also turn out that these were nothing but a bunch of knuckleheads, meth heads,” a U.S. government official said.

But they're not saying why they're thinking that it might be something serious.

Three men arrested in Aurora, Colo., on methamphetamine and firearms charges may have been plotting to assassinate Barack Obama, FBI authorities told FOX News late Monday, although local officials are still pondering the intent of the suspects.

Aurora Police Detective Marcus Dudley identified Tharin Gartrell, 28, as one suspect pulled over for a routine traffic stop Sunday and found to be wanted on numerous warrants. Two rifles, including a sniper rifle, and methamphetamines were found in the car.

KCNC in Denver reported that Gartrell led police to a hotel in Glendale, where a second man, who police did not identify, tried to jump out a six-story window. He landed on an awning and took off, but broke his ankle. He was eventually taken into custody and a third man was also arrested.

The men may have ties to Sons of Silence, an outlaw biker group, and are believed to have connections with white supremacists. Federal sources said this incident may have had more to do with methamphetamine than with any plot to assassinate Obama, but local police did not say why they connected the men to the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.

Tax Man

McCain's new ad, called Tax Man, focuses on Barack's economic plan. Notice how they use the crowd again, and the chants of Obama, to turn Barack's excitement quotient into a negative by linking it to the superficial, celebrity aspect of Barack's support.

The spot opens with a criticism of Obama that has become a refrain from the McCain campaign in recent weeks.

“Celebrity? Yes,” says an announcer, as the spot opens on cheering crowds at an Obama rally. “Ready to lead? No.”

To Know Him is To?

The more folks get to know Barack, the less they like him.

Nate Silver notes that “three new polls released today show significant movement
toward John McCain.”

The assumptions of the Obama campaign, that they can win by focusing in on John Kerry's electoral college results and swinging a few states his way by being a better version of John Kerry, ignore the fact that when known and understood, Barack is unelectable.

In Washington state, Sen. McCain trails Sen. Barack Obama by seven points in a
new survey, compared to an average deficit of 13.4 points in earlier state
polls, he notes.

Is this an anomaly?

“A similar pattern manifests itself in Minnesota, where Rasmussen has Barack
Obama’s lead eroding to 4 points; Obama had held a 13-point lead last month. And
in the critical swing state of Colorado, Rasmussen has John McCain edging into a
1-point lead; last month, it had been Obama by 3..”

Did some identifiable event cause the movement away from McCain?

Silver says there are “no overwhelmingly strong hints about what’s going in from
the cross-tabular results, but it appears that McCain has gained ground with
independents (as is almost always the case when the polls move) and also that
some Republican voters are moving from undecided to McCain.” (Also worth noting:
This Obama slippage coincides with news of Russia’s move into Georgia.)

To be fair, some of this probably has to do with mistakes the Obama campaign is making.

Recent events seem to be reversing the candidates’ public images. McCain is
starting to look like the incumbent while Obama is golfing – sort of like when
Obama was on his trip abroad and McCain was at a sausage haus.

The overseas trip was the wrong move at the wrong time. It came just as Barack's act was starting to get old, and it served to reinforce those things viewed by his base as assets that will end up being problems for Barack in the general election. His emphasis on diplomacy, evenhandedness and lofty rhetoric reek of Kerry-style elticism as symbolized by Europe worship, so speaking in Berlin to 200,000 swooning kids wasn't smart.

“When Mr. Obama was overseas last month, Mr. McCain’s foreign policy bona fides
seemed diminished, if only because he could not attract the news media attention
received by Mr. Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. Now, Mr. Obama’s voice seems muted at a time when much of the world has been worriedly watching the conflict,” between Georgia and Russia writes The New York Times’ Michael Falcone.

Barack's Excellent Adventure, in retrospect, undermines his credibility with the real world diplomatic challenges of the Russian situation. And his failure to act like a president while on vacation - quitting the vacation and returning to Washington - makes him look confused in his first opportunity to rise to a real-world, international situation.

Media Backfire

Barack's speech certainly made him center stage yesterday - and there's no question that shots of him meeting comfortably with world leaders may allay the fears somewhat of the majority of Americans who question his readiness for the presidency - but media attempts to compensate for its excitement over Barack with balanced reporting may ruin the opportunity for this week's tour to provide the jump start the Obama campaign so sorely needs.

Last night's World News, for example, spent the first 7 minutes on Barack. In the setup, Charlie Gibson mentioned that many see Barack's tour and speech as presumptuous. Then Jake Tapper started his report by mentioning that you don't usually see presidential candidates taking their campaigns to Germany. McCain also received decent coverage.

This morning, Barack momentous moment went without mention during the start of Good Morning America. They focused the news heavy portion of the program on stories such as the airliner that popped a hole yesterday, the possible tornadoes in New Hampshire, and a follow-up on the woman who didn't seem concerned when her young daughter was missing for a month.

While the Today Show considered Barack to be news, it also provided good coverage of McCain's compensatory trips to American towns with European names. Ultimately, the scheduled appearance of Miley Cirus in Rockefeller Plaza generated more heat than Barack.

How eager is Barack for something to change the movement in this campaign? Consider the latest polls from four states, taken partially during this week's trip, that confirm the tightening race seen in national polls.

July 24, 2008 - McCain Closes In On Obama In Four Battleground States, Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/ Washingtonpost.Com Poll Finds

What little air Barack had in his sales 6 weeks after disposing of Hillary is almost gone. It's up to the Berlin speech to provide some lift, and the signs don't seem to be there that any major winds have been generated. Except in New Hampshire.