Polls - Little Change

McCain has failed to take the lead, but the lead that Barack hangs on to remains negligible according to the latest polls. As Obama heads off for a week's vacation tomorrow in advance of the Democratic convention, McCain has 10 days or so to finalize his summer defining on Barack before prime time TV and VP choices take center stage and kick off the fall campaign.

Gallup continues to show a 3 point Barack lead, and Rasmussen remains at 1%. But the fight for independent voters may not be settled for some time.

If the race for the White House remains close, the final decision may be rest in the hands of voters who are not yet paying attention to the campaign.

Rasmussen asks people to grade their attention to the campaign on a 1 to 9 scale, a 9 indicating that they watch things develop on a daily basis. Independents aren't paying all that much attention yet.

Forty-two percent (42%) of McCain supporters say they’re following the race on a daily basis along with 39% of Obama supporters and 35% of those who will vote for a third-party candidate. However, among the undecided voters, just 19% say they’re paying that much attention. On that nine-point scale, most undecided voters say their interest in the campaign is a “6” or less.

Barack's Excellent Adventure

McCain's campaign doesn't get much credit for doing anything right, and with good reason. His effort haven't come with much flash. On the other hand, the lack of flash may be mitigated by quiet, barely noticed strategic moves that have put Barack at a disadvantage. For example, have you noticed that the entire contest seems to be revolving around McCain's strong suit?

Barack Obama will flash Kennedy-style charisma but face a stern test as a novice on the world stage in the Middle East and Europe next week, on a trip rich in both risk and potential rewards.

The presumptive Democratic nominee is expected to meet King Abdullah II in Jordan, tread the frontlines of the Israeli-Arab conflict in Jerusalem and the West Bank, and engage leaders of European powers Germany, France and Britain.

His audition as US commander-in-chief is also expected to take in Iraq and Afghanistan soon, though details have been withheld for security reasons.

The media doesn't talk about it much, but do you remember that Barack planned the trip after being called out by McCain for his neglect of Iraq?

"This is one of those things that is high risk, but he has no choice," said Julian Zelizer, professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University, noting polls that show voter disquiet over Obama's inexperience.

"If he pulls this kind of trip off, it is a huge payoff because this is his only real weakness at this point."

On the other hand, a small mistake or two, and Barack's lack of qualifications for the job could become the story of the summer.

McCain holds an 18 point lead on national security concerns in the latest Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll, which shows the race tied. On the economy, the most important issue to voters, Barack is favored by just two points over McCain, so correcting his international deficit is critical.

What about McCain struggling to gain the support of his party?

McCain is supported by 82% of Republicans and holds an eleven-point edge among unaffiliated voters. Obama is supported by 76% of Democrats. Obama leads among voters under 30 while McCain has the edge among those over 65. The two candidates are even among voters aged 30-64 (see other recent demographic highlights). Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters are certain they will vote for Obama and not change their mind before November. Another 34% are that certain about voting for McCain.

Rasmussen also shows about a third of voters still unclear on their presidential preference, showing once again that Barack, who had a tough time closing the deal against Hillary, is not lighting fires under anyone beyond his base.

That leaves 32% open to changing their mind before voting and creates a potential for either candidate to open a significant lead in the fall.

Poll - Hillary is the Stronger McCain Opponent

There are two polls that are worth watching in the presidential race - Gallup and Rasmussen. They are reliable because they are tracking polls - they update daily, showing the results from the prior three days of research.

While these two polls may have their flaws, those flaws are less relevant because the polls repeat their efforts each day - even if they are constantly making the same mistakes in methodology, you still get to watch the movement of the numbers over time.

These polls don't get much media attention.

But when "outliers" are released, polls which fall way outside the norm of the others (so are of questionable significance), they get big press. It happened last month, when Newsweek showed Barack with a 15 point lead - a poll that was clearly out of step with many others, but got huge play, nationally and overseas. And a new Quinnipiac poll, that has Barack leading by 9, is also getting headlines.

The old reliables, however, continue to go uncovered. Rasmussen and Gallup both show the race at a 3% lead for Barack.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 45%

Unreported, but intriguing, is a little side poll that Rasmussen did, which sheds some light on Barack's problems as a candidate. First, they poll a hypothetical matchup between Barack and President Bush.

At a time when Obama and McCain are locked in a tight race, the poll shows that Obama would rout President Bush 54% to 34%. Looking at the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, McCain is outperforming Bush by more than 15 percentage points.

Which means that McCain is viewed very differently than President Bush, despite the Obama campaign attempts to morph them into a single politician.

The poll results also show that Obama would have an easier go of it against two of McCain’s chief rivals for the Republican nomination. The presumptive Democratic nominee leads former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney by eight points 49% to 41% and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 50% to 39%.

But here comes the kicker. How does McCain do in hypotheticals against other Democrats? Is it still a tight, 3 point race if Hillary is running against McCain?

McCain fares better against Obama than he does against two other prominent Democrats. New York Senator Hillary Clinton leads McCain by eight points, 50% to 42%. Former Vice President Al Gore, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2000, leads McCain 50% to 43%.

Remember how Barack was going to be unstoppable because of his ability to draw independent voters? Not against McCain.

In all five hypothetical match-ups featured in this article, the Democrat leads the Republican among unaffiliated voters. In the match-up between the two presumptive nominees, McCain holds a slight edge over Obama among those voters.

The media doesn't talk about the glass ceiling that Barack seems to have been stuck under since the emergence of Jeremiah Wright. But Barack is stuck.