Fair Enough?

Does it matter?

John McCain returned to "Late Show With David Letterman" Thursday night, appologizing for canceling an appearance three weeks ago, but should the onetime media favorite have been preparing for an ambush?

A study shows the Kings of Late Night are not equal-opportunity destroyers this year when it comes to telling jokes about the candidates for president and vice president -- they're hammering Republicans a stunning seven times more often than they skewer Democrats.

The Center for Media and Public Affairs, a media analysis group, kept a tally of jokes told about the presidential contenders on the "Late Show" and "The Tonight Show With Jay Leno" in the five weeks after McCain chose Sarah Palin to be his running mate and vaulted the little-known Alaska governor into the national spotlight.

The total: Republicans, 286. Democrats, 42.

Debate Coverage

Todd is hosting debate coverage tonight on WRKO in Boston. You can listen online at wrko.com.

Tonight's Debate Strategy

McCain needs to go after Barack tonight, but it can't be about Bill Ayers, per se. It should be about his radical past, in general. It should be about his connection to the financial crisis via ACORN. And it should be about Barack's confession a couple of days ago, to a plumber concerned about his tax proposals, that he wants to redistribute the wealth.

I want McCain to whip out a tape recorder and play this cut into the microphone tonight, telling the American people that Barack slipped the other day and told the truth about his so-called tax cut. That would cause a commotion. But it would take some balls.

Grab It

The economy needs to be grabbed as an issue by one of the candidates - and it should be John McCain. The void in leadership that it highlights presents an incredible opportunity to play president.

It is Obama, though, who is seizing the moment.

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama plans to give a speech on the financial crisis and issue a ``rescue plan'' for the middle class, his campaign said.

``Our economy is facing its greatest uncertainty in over 70 years,'' the Illinois senator's campaign said in an e-mail to reporters this morning. ``Families who saw their incomes decline by $2,000 in the economic `expansion' from 2000 to 2007 now risk seeing deeper income losses.''

His campaign didn't release details about the new proposals. Obama, 47, is due to speak at 1:30 p.m. local time today in Toledo, Ohio. It's the only public event he has scheduled in the next few days as he prepares for his final debate with Republican nominee John McCain on Oct. 15.

Read down one or two posts to see what McCain should say.

Too Late

Is McCain losing this race, or is he getting beat by monumental events, the political equivalent of acts of God? McCain's definitely had his shortcomings despite the financial meltdown.

Yesterday on This Week, George Will quoted General MacArthur to offer an explanation of McCain's failures up to this point.

"The history of the failure of war can almost be summed up in two words: too late.
* Too late in comprehending the deadly purpose of a potential enemy.
* Too late in realizing the mortal danger.
* Too late in preparedness.
* Too late in uniting all possible forces for resistance.
* Too late in standing with one's friends."

Perhaps. But the reality is that while all forces are lined up in favor of a win for Democrats, McCain is still running just a few points behind Barack. With some better arguments, with a better theme, and one good debate performance this week, things could turn John's way.

We still need a story from McCain that people can latch onto - a compelling narrative about where the country is at, what is needed to fix it, and why he's the man. They've spent tons of time knocking down Barack, but not much effort has been put into elevating McCain to presidential stature.

Farrakhan

As much as liberals hate religion, they have no qualms about creating their own religion - or using the religion of others to manipulate.

Close?

Despite the 8 and 9 point edge that Rasmussen and Gallup give to Obama, Zogby is getting different results.

The race for President of the United States remains far too close to call between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain as both candidates head toward the finish line, a recent Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone polls shows.

Polls aren't created equal - different companies use different methodologies in analyzing data to create accurate portrayals of how a vote would turn out.

The survey, including a three-day sample of 1,220 likely voters collected over the previous three days - approximately 400 per day from Oct. 5-7, 2008 - shows that Obama holds a slight advantage amounting to 1.9 percentage points over McCain.

After last night's debate, McCain is going to need every advantage moving forward. This poll shows a race so close that if the vote were held today, you can't predict the winner.

The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll, was conducted before Tuesday's Obama-McCain debate. It was performed by live telephone operators in Zogby's in-house call center in Upstate New York, included a total of 1,220 likely voters nationwide, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

Zogby claims to be the most accurate predictor of presidential races.

Sarah's Smile

While voters like Sarah Palin, her performance in last week's debate didn't seem to impress as being presidential.

While most voters surveyed hold a favorable view of Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, most also say that she is not qualified to serve as president, should that situation present itself - 52 percent said no in a Pew Research Center survey conducted over the weekend among people who had been surveyed before the debate. Basically the same number that said so before the debate.

Is this the sexism that Democrats keep talking about?

Joe Biden, on the other hand, apparently did himself some good in the one vice presidential debate. The numbers holding a favorable view of the Democratic vice presidential nominee climbed from 54 to 63 percent after the debate - and the percentage of those surveyed saying that Biden is qualified to serve as president rose from 69 to 77 percent.

Sarah sure can attract a crowd.

Forty-one percent of all households tuned into the vice presidential debate, Nielsen has found - the second-most-watched of any presidential or vice presidential debate. And today, Nielsen reports that 61 percent of all households have watched at least one of the debates so far - the first one between presidential nominees Barack Obama and John McCain or the only one between Palin and Biden. Nielsen also has found that 30 percent tuned in to both debates.

Hillary says...

Joe Biden was great. Sarah Palin was composed and effective - very good.

Knowing the Obamafia

It would be a shame if, after two years of intense campaigning, November 4 arrived without voters knowing the essential details of Barack's background. The degree to which it hasn't been exposed is really bizarre.

Sen. John McCain and his Republican allies are readying a newly aggressive assault on Sen. Barack Obama's character, believing that to win in November they must shift the conversation back to questions about the Democrat's judgment, honesty and personal associations, several top Republicans said.

I don't know why the sort of orchestrated campaign from 527's that was waged against John Kerry hasn't happened in this race, but Barack is dramatically more vulnerable than Kerry was - and it defeated Kerry.

"We're going to get a little tougher," a senior Republican operative said, indicating that a fresh batch of television ads is coming. "We've got to question this guy's associations. Very soon. There's no question that we have to change the subject here," said the operative, who was not authorized to discuss strategy and spoke on the condition of anonymity.

This is what must happen - but it remains unexplained why the campaign has to do it itself. It's much better if the 527's do the attacking and the campaign has the ability to stay on policy issues.

The Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. appears to be off limits after McCain condemned the North Carolina Republican Party in April for an ad that linked Obama to his former pastor, saying, "Unfortunately, all I can do is, in as visible a way as possible, disassociate myself from that kind of campaigning."

I remain convinced that no one could get elected president carrying the burden of public awareness of relationships like the ones Barack used to get power. But there can't be an informed electorate if no one speaks up! Someone has to spread the word.

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's performance at Thursday night's debate embodied the new approach, as she used every opportunity to question Obama's honesty and fitness to serve as president. At one point she said, "Barack Obama voted against funding troops [in Iraq] after promising that he would not do so."

Palin kept up the attack yesterday, saying in an interview on Fox News that Obama is "reckless" and that some of what he has said, "in my world, disqualifies someone from consideration as the next commander in chief."

Now that Sarah has returned to the form that made her the most popular political figure in the country, the campaign will get the fire going again, and will get the word out.

Palin Power

Sarah is a superstar.

Thursday's highly anticipated face-off between Alaska governor Sarah Palin and Delaware senator Joe Biden was the most-watched vp debate of all time.

Last night's event was seen by nearly 70 million viewers, according to Nielsen Media Research.

That's the most-viewed debate -- presidential or vp -- since at least the second round between Bill Clinton, Ross Perot and George Bush in 1992.

Thursday's debate was...

-- 33% higher than Friday's top-of-the-ticket debate between John McCain and Barack Obama (52.4 million).

-- 61% higher than the 2004 vp debate between Dick Cheney and John Edwards (43.6 million).

-- 23% higher than the 1984 match up between George Bush and Geraldine Ferrarro (56.7 million), the former title-holder for the most-watched vp debate.

Dick Pleased

Dick Morris thinks Sarah Palin's debate performance was big news.

She showed originality, charisma and sass - a style that is refreshing and different in our politics. She didn't just win the vice-presidential debate, she showed that she belongs with Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton as among the best communicators of our modern political times.

What impressed him so?

Her sallies against big government were brilliantly conceived and well executed. Her line that she didn't understand how Washington worked because politicians vote for something right after they vote against it, for example, was just wonderful.

Another classic came when she bit back at moderator Gwen Ifill and opponent Joe Biden and said she'd answer the questions as she wanted to, not necessarily as they wanted her to do.

Gone, long gone, are the worries about how good or well-prepared Sarah Palin is.

Palin communicates change on a subliminal level.

Most important, she showed how John McCain would bring change to Washington. Would that McCain could articulate his own sense of change as well as his running mate did!

I'm happy to find there's someone else who was put to sleep by Biden.

For his part, Biden sounded like the warmed-over has-been that he is - he seemed to be on downers. Where she was thrilling and exciting, he was hypnotically boring. He seemed like more of the same, while she seemed like a breath of fresh air.

Without trepidation, she tossed aside the Bush years and spoke of the "blunders" in Iraq. She was able to skewer Wall Street and show Republican opposition to the greed there.

Will her performance change the course of this campaign?

Last night's Palin victory will have an immediate impact on the presidential race - arresting McCain's fall and slowing Obama's surge.

The only question is whether it will be enough to reverse Obama's gains of the past week. It might go a long way in that direction.

How'd She Do?

Newsbusters did a nice recap of 'analysis' from TV talking heads of Sarah's performance last night.

On NBC, Chuck Todd observed “those that were tuning in looking for some sort of car wreck, probably came away disappointed.” CBS's Katie Couric proposed, without saying in which camp journalists fall, “the headline is Governor Sarah Palin did not embarrass herself or her running mate as some Republicans might have feared and some Democrats might have hoped.” Colleague Bob Schieffer asserted that “I think a lot of people were expecting” Palin “to make some sort of blunder or mistake and she did not do that.” Jeff Greenfield, also on CBS, decided “Palin passed the Tina Fey test. Anyone looking for a deer in the headlights experience didn't get one tonight.” Over on ABC, Diane Sawyer found that Palin, “after a bruising time in the media, showed up not just with confidence, but cheerful confidence that might surprise a lot of people.”

Palin's ability to smile while throwing hard punches made her delightfully likeable, and she's learned the vital skill that was missing in her TV interviews - she avoided the direct intent of questions, using them as launch pads for the points she wanted to make.

On Palin avoiding questions, CBS's Schieffer “found it a little disconcerting” that time and again Governor Palin would just choose not to answer the question and launch in to some dissertation, sometimes talking points, and not really address what Gwen Ifill had asked her.” On CNN, reporter/analyst Gloria Borger charged: “I think at the beginning of the debate actually, Sarah Palin's problem was that she wasn't answering questions directly.” NBC anchor Brian Williams scolded: “Looking at some of the e-mail traffic and some of the commentary online tonight, people found it bracing when she said quote, 'I may not answer the questions the way the moderator and you,' Senator Biden, 'want to hear.' Of course, it's the only set of rules in town.”

Better Wright

Yesterday I posted an ad from the Judicial Network that attempts to make the country aware of the Obamafia. It was ok. Here's an RNC version that's stronger, I think. But for this to be done with the viciousness it warrents, aren't we looking for a 527campaign of expensive truth telling?

Palin Wins

Sarah Palin took the soft pitch of low expectations and knocked that sucker out of the park, demonstrating that she can hold her own, even offering moments of humor with her relaxed, good natured jabs, as she went head to head with a 35 year Senate veteran.

She wasn't totally without her now trademark moments of run on sentences and non-sequitors, but Sarah was comfortable, confident and warm as she handled each question thrown her way by Gwen Ifill.

Gaffer

The McCain campaign has a new ad out today, reminding people that Joe Biden is the candidate with the proven ability to speak in gaffes.

Bracelet

If you haven't seen this yet, it's funny to watch Obama call on his bracelet, but have to check who gave it to him.

The Joy of Video

If you really want to upset the Barack supporters in your life, send them a link to this.

Debate Numbers

Expectations went unmet Friday night, as the first McCain/Obama debate wasn't as big of an audience draw as the first Bush/Kerry four years ago - but then again, their's wasn't on a Friday night.

In the meter-market overnights, Friday night's 90-minute debate in Mississippi received a preliminary household rating of 33.2, according to Nielsen Media Research.

That's 16% lower than the national number from the 2004 debate, which aired on a Thursday -- generally TV's most-watched night of the week. Friday's number is only slightly above George W. Bush and Al Gore's first debate in 2000 and the Clinton-Dole debate in 1996.

The McCain-Obama rating represents 55 of the 56 largest TV viewing markets in the country and includes ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, PBS, CNN, Telemundo, TeleFutura, and BBCA.

A firmer sense of the debate's popularity will be available Monday when Nielsen releases the national numbers -- including total viewers -- so the debate's overall rank could shift. One media report is extrapolating that the rating equals 57 million viewers, but Nielsen will not confirm this. The St. Louis market had the largest debate audience, with a household rating of 52.1, while the Phoenix/Prescott market had the lowest rating, 24.8 (top markets here).

The first 1980 bout between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter still holds the record as the most-viewed televised presidential debate, with a 58.9 household rating and 80.6 million viewers.

The Lonely One

I thought McCain did well last night. Glad I'm not the only one.

It was one of the most substantive debates in recent presidential campaign history and John McCain won it.

The Arizona senator was cool, informed and forceful in Friday’s first presidential debate of the general election campaign.

He repeatedly put Barack Obama on the defensive throughout the 90 minutes session. Obama did little to ease voter concerns that he’s experienced enough to handle foreign and defense policy. That was his number one task Friday night and he failed.

Instead he was often his old meandering self, unable to state a quick, forceful position. Polls taken in the coming days should show McCain holding on to his trump card in the race - the view that he’s better equipped to be commander in chief.

He condescendingly called Obama “naive” at a couple points in the debate, like an old master lecturing a young understudy. Obama never seemed able to attack back.

McCain’s victory came at a good time for him in the race. He has fumbled around for a week on questions involving the economy and the federal bailout of Wall Street. His vice presidential candidate has become a running joke of late night comedy shows. As a result, his poll numbers sagged.