A website dedicated to the man so uniquely unqualified to be President. This blog by by radio talk host Todd Feinburg has been replaced by RealClearThinker.com.
It looks like AP didn't get the memo. The big news organization has released a poll showing Barack just one point ahead of McCain. Which would explain why Obama had Colin Powell make his announcement on Sunday.
The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.
Don't they know it's a going to be a landslide?
The new AP-GfK head-to-head result is a departure from some, but not all, recent national polls.
Obama and McCain were essentially tied among likely voters in the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican strategist Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake.
The poll was taken for five days, starting last Thursday and ending on Monday.
McCain's strong showing is partly attributable to his strong debate performance; Thursday was his best night of the survey. Obama's best night was Sunday, hours after the Powell announcement, and the full impact of that endorsement may not have been captured in any surveys yet. Future polling could show whether either of those was merely a support "bounce" or something more lasting.
With the latest disaster from Joe Biden creating a new opportunity for McCain to clarify the huge error in judgment Barack showed in choosing Biden, things could swing even more in McCain's direction.
The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters.
Gallup says the race has tightened by two points since yesterday, with Barack up 5%, while Rasmussen has it at 6%.
It was one of the most substantive debates in recent presidential campaign history and John McCain won it.
The Arizona senator was cool, informed and forceful in Friday’s first presidential debate of the general election campaign.
He repeatedly put Barack Obama on the defensive throughout the 90 minutes session. Obama did little to ease voter concerns that he’s experienced enough to handle foreign and defense policy. That was his number one task Friday night and he failed.
Instead he was often his old meandering self, unable to state a quick, forceful position. Polls taken in the coming days should show McCain holding on to his trump card in the race - the view that he’s better equipped to be commander in chief.
He condescendingly called Obama “naive” at a couple points in the debate, like an old master lecturing a young understudy. Obama never seemed able to attack back.
McCain’s victory came at a good time for him in the race. He has fumbled around for a week on questions involving the economy and the federal bailout of Wall Street. His vice presidential candidate has become a running joke of late night comedy shows. As a result, his poll numbers sagged.
Was McCain disrespectful of Obama during last night's debate? Post-debate polls indicate that more people think Barack won the debate.The thought of this makes me sick.
CBS Insta Poll shows Barack Obama won 39% to John McCain's 25% with 36% saying the debate was a draw.
Insider Advantage reports those polled Obama won 42% to McCain's 41% with Undecided 17%
The CNN poll showed men were evenly split, but women gave Obama higher marks 59% to 41% for McCain.
This gender imbalance may provide the key if the debate creates movement toward Barack - women might of thought they were seeing McNasty, while men thought they were seeing acceptable male behavior.
McCain appeared angry and dismissive of Obama and generally impressed as someone who would slap colleagues across the aisle if reaching over to them. He said several times in the debate that he hasn't won the Miss Congeniality contest in the Senate, and he proved why during the debate.
The Bush administration is very male - aggressive, preferring confrontation to conversation, lacking in compassion - so for females, the desire for change might be satisfied by seeing a metro-sexual candidate like Barack.
I suspect that women voters especially would be turned off by McCain's sarcastic tone because women do tend to be the conciliators in our society and saw Obama display those conciliatory qualities very well in the debate. Obama looked at McCain, and McCain wouldn't return the eye contact but rather glared or displayed a tight and angry expression.
In an era in which TV controls elections, the subliminal signals a candidate sends out are critical. McCain isn't one to worry about the subliminal.
I also suspect (but don't have the data to support) that older voters were also turned off by Senator McNasty. I believe older voters will also be reassured that, though McCain has been around longer, Obama has a good grasp of foreign affairs and can learn quickly. He impressed as a statesmen, in marked contrast to McCain's warrior demeanor.
The Wall Street news cycle of the past two weeks has pushed the narrative of this campaign so strongly in Barack's lap that it's going to take more, perhaps, than being aggressive in trying to solve it, as McCain was this week, to pull things back his way.
McCain referred to Obama as naive or as not understanding on many issues when the listener probably saw a mere difference of opinion. McCain's condescension felt annoying; to the listener who might agree or disagree with Obama, Obama nevertheless was making good points, not naive ones.
Is it possible that McCain's age isn't really an issue for voters, but being of a different era is? Making the allegation about his lack of computer use one of symbolic importance to voters?
In general, I think the country is tired of negativity, and McCain's performance didn't give anyone the impression that age has mellowed him. In fact, he seemed rather proud of his continuing bellicose manner. The country seems ready for a change from the "fighting as first choice crowd."
I thought McCain was very good last night, and that while Barack was presidential in demeanor, there was a clear lack of sparkle. Being a male in his 50's, perhaps that response is predictable, and unrepresentative of where America is today. We'll see.
John McCain's bounce is no longer rising. In today's Gallup daily tracking poll, he's up 5% again. And the Rasmussen daily tracker, the least bouncy poll, has gone from a 1% McCain lead to a tie.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows the race for the White House is tied once again. John McCain and Barack Obama now each attract 46% of the vote. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 48% and Obama 48%.
Despite all the excitement over Sarah Palin, and the hige audience for the GOP convention, the race goes into its final 8 week sprint with things about even.
One week ago today, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage.
The good news for McCain is a new found energy, and more excitement in the base.
CBS News has a poll out that shows McCain in a 2 point lead - reflecting the movement that other polls are showing as the post convention numbers continue coming in. Here's the lineup:
USA Today - McCain up 10% Gallup Tracking - McCain up 5% Rasmussen - McCain up 1% ABC News/Wash Post McCain up 2% CBS News - McCain up 2%
CBS analysis of its numbers is also similar to what other polls are showing.
Republican presidential nominee John McCain leads Democratic rival Barack Obama 46 percent to 44 percent in the latest CBS News poll, which was taken in the three days following the completion of the parties' nominating conventions.
Palin's favorable rating now stands at 44 percent, twice what it was immediately after her selection as McCain's nominee. Biden's favorable rating stands at 37 percent, identical to his pre-convention rating. Independents are more likely to have a favorable opinion of Palin (46 percent) than they are of Biden (31 percent).
McCain's move ahead of Obama can be traced in part to movement among previously undecided voters. In this survey, CBS News re-interviewed respondents to a CBS News/New York Times poll taken in mid-August. While many previously undecided voters remain undecided, more of those re-interviewed have moved towards McCain than Obama.
Thanks in large part to the Palin selection, McCain has rallied his white evangelical supporters. The percentage of white evangelical McCain supporters re-interviewed for this survey who are enthusiastic about McCain has doubled to 48 percent from before the convention.
Nearly three in four former supporters of Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, now back Obama over McCain. In the August survey, a smaller percentage, 63 percent, backed the man who bested Clinton in the Democratic primaries.
The new ABC News/Washington Post poll only shows McCain with a 2% lead among likely voters (joining Gallup, Rasmussen and USA Today polls in putting McCain out in front), but the news is dramatic when you look inside the poll.
McCain's gains stem from his improved standing against Obama on the election's core issues and a significant narrowing of the newly minted Democratic nominee's advantage as the candidate better suited to shake up Washington.
Who is the "change" candidate now?
In previous surveys, white women gave Obama a clear edge on bringing change; now they divide 47 percent for McCain, 44 percent for Obama... Only four in 10 voters in the new poll said Obama has done enough to explain the "change" he promises; that's down six points from before his convention.
The shift among white women is astounding!
White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama's favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that's one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences.
On the issues, voters are much more comfortable with John McCain than with Barack.
...on the dominant issue of the election, the economy, McCain has whittled Obama's advantage to a mere five points, the smallest it's been this year. McCain has a 17-point lead on which candidate can best handle an unexpected crisis and, for the first time, a double-digit advantage as the one more trusted on international affairs. McCain also has a 10-point lead on dealing with the war in Iraq, an issue that voters had been divided on since the outset of the campaign.
The GOP convention was the launch pad that the McCain campaign had hoped for, fueled by the inclusion of Sarah Palin. A new USA/Today poll, conducted by Gallup, indicates a bump of about 11%.
The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year.
McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.
The news gets even more dramatic, however.
In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote.
Republicans are fired up in a way that seemed impossible before Sarah.
Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%.
What do folks say about Sarah?
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a national unknown before McCain chose her for the ticket 10 days ago, draws a strong reaction from voters on both sides. Now, 29% say she makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 21% less likely.
Obama's choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as running mate made 14% more likely to vote for the Democrat, 7% less likely.
The three day Gallup tracking poll has tightened up considerably since the start of the Republican convention, with Barack now showing just a 2 point lead over McCain - 47% to 45%.
Obama had led McCain by as much as eight percentage points in recent days, both during and immediately after the Democratic National Convention in Denver. Those results reflected a convention bounce for Obama of four percentage points in his support among registered voters (from 45% to 49%). It appears that McCain is now enjoying a rebound bounce coming out of the Republican National Convention in St. Paul that is nullifying some of Obama's gains.
Many of the people surveyed in this poll were interviewed before either Palin's or McCain's speeches.
The interviewing for today's report partially reflects public opinion following the highlights of the Republican National Convention on Wednesday and Thursday nights when McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, made their acceptance speeches. This includes a strong night for McCain in Friday's interviewing, the first full night of interviewing following his acceptance speech.
Monday is the first day that the tracking polls will reflect entirely surveys taken after the conclusion of the GOP convention, so that's when we'll start to get a true sense of the McCain/Palin bounce.
The first Gallup Poll Daily tracking report based on interviewing conducted entirely after McCain's speech (from Friday through Sunday) will be published on Monday. The test for McCain will be whether he can do more than return the race to the absolute tie seen at the beginning of the convention period, and actually lead Obama by a significant margin for the first time since late April/early May.
Obama isn't taking the turn of events laying down - he's out fighting to defend himself as the agent of change.
“Don’t be fooled,” a particularly punchy Obama told a crowd this morning at a town hall meeting in Terre Haute, Ind. “These are the folks who have been in charge. John McCain’s party, with the help of John McCain, has been in charge.”
“Words mean something!” Obama said of Palin's reputation as an anti-earmark champion. “You can’t just make stuff up.”
“Barack Obama has requested the equivalent of $1 million in new pork-barrel spending for every working day he's been in the U.S. Senate, while John McCain has never once asked for an earmark, and Gov. Palin has vetoed hundreds of millions in government spending including killing the infamous 'Bridge to Nowhere',” Bounds wrote in an email response. “Just like so many other issues Barack Obama is all talk, has no record to back it up and isn't ready to make change."
Like Barack says - "you can't just make stuff up."
Early reports out of Rasmussen - the poll isn't out yet, but its results are shown in the Real Clear Politics chart - indicate that Barack's lead has slipped to 2% in today's daily tracking poll.
And Drudge is reporting in a headline only that Sarah Palin is more popular than both Obama and McCain.
The CBS News Poll showed Barack up 8% a few days ago. It's a lousy poll - taken of adults, most of whom happen to be registered. The best polls survey voters who have to qualify as being likely to vote based on their voting history.
Nevertheless, bad polls can offer insights when repeated over time. The changes from one to the next then become significant. In the new version of the poll, the race is a tie.
The presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain is now even at 42 percent, according to a new CBS News poll conducted Monday-Wednesday of this week. Twelve percent are undecided according to the poll, and one percent said they wouldn't vote.
This is in contrast to a poll conducted last weekend, where the Obama-Biden ticket led McCain-Palin by eight points, 48 percent to 40 percent.
Thirty-eight percent say they have a favorable view of Obama, compared 34 percent unfavorable and 27 percent undecided. For McCain, it's 37 percent favorable, 36 percent unfavorable and 27 percent undecided.
McCain maintains his large advantage on the likelihood of being an effective commander-in-chief - 46 percent of voters say it is "very likely" McCain would be an effective commander-in-chief, compared to 24 percent who say that about Obama.
The Gallup tracking poll, which a couple of days ago had McCain pulling into a 2 point lead, now has Barack up 6%. As a poll of registered voters, Gallup tends to jump around alot.
Ironically, the Rasmussen tracker, less volatile with it's survey of likely voters, has the race as a tie.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows hints of a modest convention bounce building for Barack Obama. The Democrat gained a point from yesterday and now attracts 45% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 44%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 47%.
Whatever bump Obama may get will be difficult to sustain, as McCain stands poised to pounce on the news cycle with his VP announcement tonight.
Reviewing recent single-night polling data—rather than the three-day average--shows that Obama lost ground immediately following the selection of Joe Biden as his running mate. That had little or nothing to do with Biden and everything to do with the fact that the running mate was not named Hillary Clinton. The impact of that choice was reflected in the polling results released Tuesday and Wednesday showing modest gains for McCain.
McCain's attempt to end news stories about Barack's acceptance speech at Rezko Field tonight as soon as they begin is shrewd.
However, events are moving rapidly this season and the impact of the convention is starting to replace the impact of the Vice Presidential announcement. New polling data shows that 74% of Democrats say their convention has unified the partyand 84% believe Hillary Clinton’s speech will help Obama in the fall.
Even if Obama gets a couple of days of news out of his speech tonight, it will end on Monday with the start of the GOP convention.
Obama’s poll numbers have improved over the past couple of nights and today’s update shows a tie race because it includes a mix of both recent trends. But it seems likely that Obama will end the convention with a modest lead over McCain. Then, of course, it will be time for the Republican Vice Presidential pick and, next week, the GOP convention.
Did Joe Biden's selection as Barack's running mate excite voters?
It's official: Barack Obama has received no bounce in voter support out of his selection of Sen. Joe Biden to be his vice presidential running mate.
While Rasmussen shows the race as a tie, today's Gallup Daily Tracking Poll has McCain jumping into a 2 point lead.
Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 23-25, the first three-day period falling entirely after Obama's Saturday morning vice presidential announcement, shows 46% of national registered voters backing John McCain and 44% supporting Obama, not appreciably different from the previous week's standing for both candidates.
This is not the direction that the numbers should be heading, but Barack mismanaged the Biden announcement by releasing it at 3am Saturday morning, the best place to bury a story. It should have come out days earlier.
This is the first time since Obama clinched the nomination in early June, though, that McCain has held any kind of advantage over Obama in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.
Yesterday, Gallup showed the presidential race as a tie, while Rasmussen's Daily Tracking Poll had a 3 point lead for Obama. Today, the lead for Obama is gone.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain also earns 44%. When "leaners" are included, it’s still tied with Obama at 46% and McCain at 46%.
McCain continues to do better with Republicans than does Barack with Democrats.
Obama is supported by 78% of Democrats while McCain gets the vote from 85% of Republicans. The GOP hopeful also has a slight advantage among unaffiliated voters.
Rasmussen's state by state analysis no longer shows Barack with an electoral college victory. With leaning states included, the tally is Obama 264, McCain 247.
Barack is running 11% behind generic congressional Democrats.
