We've Moved

Todd is now blogging at a new location - RealClearThinker.com.

Please visit now!

Debate Coverage

Todd is hosting debate coverage tonight on WRKO in Boston. You can listen online at wrko.com.

Tune in...

Todd anchors debate coverage from 7pm to midnite on WRKO in Boston tonight.

Debate

Todd is anchoring debate coverage this evening on WRKO Boston until midnite. Listen in at wrko.com.

Iraq

Please read the op-ed piece that I co-wrote with John Arquilla of the Naval Post-graduate College on the war in Iraq. It appears in today's San Francisco Chronicle.

The Best Thing That Could Happen in Iraq
John Arquilla - Todd Feinburg

The "October Surprise" is a time-honored tradition in election-year
politics. This time around, bombing Iran would be the worst sort of surprise. But the best possible surprise might unfold right next door - in Iraq...

Rock Star Mocked

It wasn't long ago that comedians were complaining about the difficulty of finding an angle for mocking Barack Obama. No longer.

Last month Jon Stewart, host of the satirical news programme The Daily Show, had to tell his audience that they were allowed to laugh at Mr Obama after a joke fell flat.

But Mr Stewart made comedic hay during the Illinois Senator's international trip, mocking his progress through the Holy Land, where he said the candidate stopped "in Bethlehem to see the manger where he was born."

The angle now is that Barack is high on himself, and comedians are doing their best to knock him down a peg or two.

The attitude was summed up by Dana Milbank, the Washington Post's resident political humourist, who declared: "Barack Obama has long been his party's presumptive nominee. Now he's becoming its presumptuous nominee."

Mr Letterman listed top ten signs that Barack Obama is overconfident, which included "Offered Bush 20 bucks for the 'Mission Accomplished' banner" and "Having head measured for Mount Rushmore."

This is all to be expected - the immunity to being mocked was an artificial condition brought on by racial discomfort, and the religious zeal with which Barack broke onto the scene.

Mr Obama is also under fire for moving politically towards the centre ground, moderating positions he had once boasted were evidence of his unique appeal.

Jay Leno, of the long-running Tonight Show, said: "Barack Obama now says he's open to offshore oil drilling. So, apparently, when he promised change, he was talking about his mind."

Gallup Sinking - The Toothless Bump

The Gallup poll, a bit more volatile since it polls registered voters rather than testing for those who are likely to vote, took a big jump two days ago in response to Barack's big media week. But now it joins Rasmussen in sinking.

Barack Obama's lead over John McCain, having reached a nine percentage point margin a few days ago, has been reduced for the second Gallup report in a row, and is now at a 6-point, 47% to 41%, margin among registered voters in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted July 26-28.

Some are confused as to why the Gallup Daily Tracker is showing a lead for Barack when the poll it did with USA Today shows a McCain lead of 4%.

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.

The answer is that the poll for USA Today polled likely voters, as does Rasmussen, which shows the race with a one point lead for Barack, bringing the Real Clear Politics average to a spread of just 2.5%.

Why is the trip not panning out to be a boost? Back to the USA Today poll.

In the first in-depth look at public perceptions of the Democrat's trip to Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East and Europe, the survey organization said 35 percent of respondents had a positive opinion of last week's tour.

But 26 percent had a negative opinion and 39 percent said they did not know enough about the trip to be able to say, despite blanket coverage including overseas interviews with Obama by all the main television networks.

Gallup said its findings suggested that vitriolic attacks on Obama by Republican contender John McCain, including about the Democrat's failure to visit wounded US troops in Germany, may have had an impact.

"The heavy coverage of the trip may have fueled speculation -- or reinforced pre-existing attitudes -- about news media bias in Obama's favor," Gallup added in its poll, conducted with USA Today.

The number of respondents who saw press coverage of Obama as unfairly positive was 39 percent. A total of 32 percent said coverage of McCain was unfairly negative.

"The media's coverage of Obama's foreign trip, coupled with a strong reaction from McCain and other conservatives, may have created the seemingly paradoxical effect of increasing Republicans' energy and excitement about voting for McCain," Gallup said.

"If this is the case, the degree to which this is short-term versus long-term is still not clear."

Obama's favorable rating dropped from 64 percent last month to 61 percent in the new poll. McCain's had increased from 59 percent to 62.