Showing posts with label lead Mccain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label lead Mccain. Show all posts

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Moving Over, Not On

This is the end. But also the beginning. Barack's White Lies is moving, and evolving. Think of it as Change You Can Believe In. The new blog will be called, eventually, Real Clear Thinker. All future posts can be found at realclearthinker.com.

I took it in stride when Barack won, and decided that this is a time to adjust - we must accept his victory and learn the lessons that come with it. America has changed, and in order to be effective in doing political analysis, as well as affecting the course that the nation is following, it seems to me that you have to be here, in the moment - not stuck in some dream of the past.

If you'll permit me an analogy, think of those of us who enjoy the political process, study it, and try to move people's thinking to a better place, as singer/songwriters. We perform songs about the world we live in. While singing songs from the sixties might draw an audience - heck, it would even be fun - I don't want to be an oldies act. Singing nostalgia is valid because it offers escape, but I don't want to engage in escapism, I want to be relevant to now. I want to grab hold of the moment and say, "it's moving in the wrong direction, help me get it back on course."

In order to do that, I decided it is necessary to let go of some things. I'm not going to worry about Barack being too young and inexperienced, I'm going to try to trust that he is a gifted enough person that maybe he can rise to the occasion. I'm not going to wallow in the cruel hoax of turning to the people who are dismantling the American experiment and asking them to save it - I want to accept that Democrats have won because Republicans screwed up, and that's how it goes in the toggle mentality of a two party system.

Their worst goals must be resisted, yes, but as an optimist, I will trust that the flaws of liberalism, when seen up close, will reaffirm in America it's basic conservatism. We must help them be the tools of their own demise.

I also think we must accept that America has been altered inexorably - this is not the European culture we grew up in, the forces that sought to minimize it's whiteness and make it a multi-cultural place have succeeded. That's not a bad thing, per se, it's just a different thing. It only hurts when you fight it. At the same time, we must make sure that the new America loves and respects that which is America, that it isn't here just to enjoy the benefits without respecting the underpinnings that made the spoils possible.

In other words, if new people are going to be in charge, I can live with that. I don't care who is in charge, I care what is in charge. What philosophies are going to guide us, what are our values going to be? Bad values can be pushed by people of any culture or race, as can good ones.

So I decided that I had to accept the tipping point that Barack's election represents. Power has shifted to the new guys. Fighting that would be like trying to fight the British invasion of the 1960's. The Beatles were not the revolution - the forces of change were unstoppable - they simply rode the wave created by the enormous demand for change. Television, and access to money, gave kids a new voice in the marketplace, and we used those tools to, for better and for worse, adjust the world to meet our tastes.

The same has happened now - we have raised a couple of generations of suburban kids whose lives haven't known the struggles of necessity. It is foolhardy to expect, for a moment, that they would view life the way we do. How could a twenty-something professional of today, earning a comfortable upper middle class living while sitting at his computer in Starbucks, have even the vaguest notion of the life that formed the Greatest Generation? We must stop expecting the impossible.

I'm not arguing that the fight is over - the struggle between conservative and liberal values is a permanent one, as is the political fight between the groups aligned, however loosely, behind those banners. I'm just saying that we have to realize that some things have already been decided - that liberalism has, to a large extent, already won, and we must map carefully the piece of land we're standing on so that we can best defend, and perhaps extend, our ground.

It is in this spirit that I begin a gradual relaunch of Barack's White Lies. A new look, a new location, a new name. While I liked the edginess of the name for the election - I enjoyed that it made liberals uncomfortable - my old fashioned conservative sensibilities lead me to feel uncomfortable calling my blog Barack's White Lies.

I don't wish to be disrespectful to the office of the President of the United States, which, hopefully, will always be occupied by a person who loves the ideals and the brilliance of the men, and the document, that created it.

The blog will live on under the name of Real Clear Thinker. It's an amalgam of the names of a couple of my favorite places to read - Real Clear Politics and The American Thinker - not so much inspired by them as absorbed and reconstructed.

When shocked liberals ask how I have come to a particular conclusion, I just tell them that I thought about it. And that's the truth. I like thinking clearly, and I believe that if others engage in a similar enterprise, they'll come to conclusions that are pretty close to mine.

That's what Real Clear Thinker is all about.

Moving Over, Not On

This is the end. But also the beginning. Barack's White Lies is moving, and evolving. Think of it as Change You Can Believe In. The new blog will be called, eventually, Real Clear Thinker. All future posts can be found at realclearthinker.com.

I took it in stride when Barack won, and decided that this is a time to adjust - we must accept his victory and learn the lessons that come with it. America has changed, and in order to be effective in doing political analysis, as well as affecting the course that the nation is following, it seems to me that you have to be here, in the moment - not stuck in some dream of the past.

If you'll permit me an analogy, think of those of us who enjoy the political process, study it, and try to move people's thinking to a better place, as singer/songwriters. We perform songs about the world we live in. While singing songs from the sixties might draw an audience - heck, it would even be fun - I don't want to be an oldies act. Singing nostalgia is valid because it offers escape, but I don't want to engage in escapism, I want to be relevant to now. I want to grab hold of the moment and say, "it's moving in the wrong direction, help me get it back on course."

In order to do that, I decided it is necessary to let go of some things. I'm not going to worry about Barack being too young and inexperienced, I'm going to try to trust that he is a gifted enough person that maybe he can rise to the occasion. I'm not going to wallow in the cruel hoax of turning to the people who are dismantling the American experiment and asking them to save it - I want to accept that Democrats have won because Republicans screwed up, and that's how it goes in the toggle mentality of a two party system.

Their worst goals must be resisted, yes, but as an optimist, I will trust that the flaws of liberalism, when seen up close, will reaffirm in America it's basic conservatism. We must help them be the tools of their own demise.

I also think we must accept that America has been altered inexorably - this is not the European culture we grew up in, the forces that sought to minimize it's whiteness and make it a multi-cultural place have succeeded. That's not a bad thing, per se, it's just a different thing. It only hurts when you fight it. At the same time, we must make sure that the new America loves and respects that which is America, that it isn't here just to enjoy the benefits without respecting the underpinnings that made the spoils possible.

In other words, if new people are going to be in charge, I can live with that. I don't care who is in charge, I care what is in charge. What philosophies are going to guide us, what are our values going to be? Bad values can be pushed by people of any culture or race, as can good ones.

So I decided that I had to accept the tipping point that Barack's election represents. Power has shifted to the new guys. Fighting that would be like trying to fight the British invasion of the 1960's. The Beatles were not the revolution - the forces of change were unstoppable - they simply rode the wave created by the enormous demand for change. Television, and access to money, gave kids a new voice in the marketplace, and we used those tools to, for better and for worse, adjust the world to meet our tastes.

The same has happened now - we have raised a couple of generations of suburban kids whose lives haven't known the struggles of necessity. It is foolhardy to expect, for a moment, that they would view life the way we do. How could a twenty-something professional of today, earning a comfortable upper middle class living while sitting at his computer in Starbucks, have even the vaguest notion of the life that formed the Greatest Generation? We must stop expecting the impossible.

I'm not arguing that the fight is over - the struggle between conservative and liberal values is a permanent one, as is the political fight between the groups aligned, however loosely, behind those banners. I'm just saying that we have to realize that some things have already been decided - that liberalism has, to a large extent, already won, and we must map carefully the piece of land we're standing on so that we can best defend, and perhaps extend, our ground.

It is in this spirit that I begin a gradual relaunch of Barack's White Lies. A new look, a new location, a new name. While I liked the edginess of the name for the election - I enjoyed that it made liberals uncomfortable - my old fashioned conservative sensibilities lead me to feel uncomfortable calling my blog Barack's White Lies.

I don't wish to be disrespectful to the office of the President of the United States, which, hopefully, will always be occupied by a person who loves the ideals and the brilliance of the men, and the document, that created it.

The blog will live on under the name of Real Clear Thinker. It's an amalgam of the names of a couple of my favorite places to read - Real Clear Politics and The American Thinker - not so much inspired by them as absorbed and reconstructed.

When shocked liberals ask how I have come to a particular conclusion, I just tell them that I thought about it. And that's the truth. I like thinking clearly, and I believe that if others engage in a similar enterprise, they'll come to conclusions that are pretty close to mine.

That's what Real Clear Thinker is all about.

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Surge, or Purge???

The surge worked for Iraq, but it's not working for McCain. His move up in the polls from last weekend petered out during the week, and weekend numbers, which generally favor the Democrats, are showing a stalled race. The Real Clear Politics tally shows an average lead of 6.7% for Barack, and today's Rasmussen report remains at 5%.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday once again shows Barack Obama with 51% of the vote while John McCain is five points back at 46%. This is the 38th straight day that Obama’s support has stayed between 50% and 52% (see trends).

For the past seven days, Obama has been ahead by three to five points. For the month before that, the Democratic nominee was up by four to eight points every day.

A McCain win rests in the hands of some unforeseen circumstance - large numbers of voters who've been claiming falsely that they're planning to vote for Barack, a failure of the youth vote to get out of bed on Tuesday, or perhaps an electorate that's so excited by the race that McCain voters, who would normally be sitting the race out, show up to cast a ballot.

Obama is now viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide, McCain by 53% (see trends). Obama gets positive reviews from 88% of Democrats and 56% of unaffiliated voters. Ninety percent (90%) of Republicans and 55% of unaffiliateds say the same about McCain. Obama leads by ten among women but trails by two among men.

While McCain could still win on Tuesday, the odds tilted severely against him when the economic meltdown occurred in September.

The economy remains the top issue of Election 2008 for 46% of voters. Just 20% see national security as the top priority. The importance of the economic issue is highlighted by the fact that McCain was leading by three points in mid-September just before Lehman Brothers collapsed and made public the depth of Wall Street’s problems. Shortly after that, Obama moved ahead and has enjoyed a stable lead that has lasted into the final weekend of Election 2008.

I'm still expecting the country to come to its senses on Tuesday - I have trouble imagining people being dumb enough to vote the Democrats into total control - so we'll just have to wait and see.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Tax Gaffe

Biden changes the Obama tax proposal. Biden's accurate in suggesting that there's nothing about the $250,000 figure that anyone should trust. The only thing you can trust is that he'll be raising taxes - and that figure will be abandoned on day one.

Closer Still

Can McCain keep things moving in his direction? We expect the race to grow more tense each day on its own - but the McCain campaign has finally found a theme - Barack's radical philosophy is scarier than the bad economy.

Today's numbers - Zogby moves one point closer, Gallup shifts 3% toward McCain. Rasmussen stays the same.

Rasmussen Reports10/25 - 10/273000 LV2.05146Obama +5
Gallup (Traditional)*10/25 - 10/272448 LV2.04947Obama +2
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby10/25 - 10/271202 LV2.94945Obama +4

Nutty E's

As much as they respect brains and sophistication, liberals find theirs largely inoperative when it comes to Barack. Here's the latest bit of email I've received purporting to offer profound insights. (The email I received is in blue, my responses are in black):

A question of perspective :
Obama/Biden vs McCain/Palin, what if things were switched around?..... think about it. Would the country's collective point of view be different? Could racism be the culprit?

What if the Obamas had paraded five children across the stage, including a three month old infant and an unwed, pregnant teenage daughter?
Considering he's black, and this would reinforce negative perceptions of being black, he would surely face a different standard. But you have to take the good with the bad - Barack wouldn't be the Democratic nominee if he wasn't black.
What if John McCain was a former president of the Harvard Law Review?
That would be a nice addition to his naval academy training.
What if Barack Obama finished fifth from the bottom of his graduating class?

One of the only justifications for his candidacy would be gone.
What if McCain had only married once, and Obama was a divorcee?
If it had occurred decades ago, no one would care, and Barack would defend himself from any mention of it by claiming that his failed marriage isn't what's going to bring the American people jobs and a prosperous economy. But, of course, the vast majority of voters would not be aware of the fact, because the pro-Obama media wouldn't write about it. (see next post down.)
What if Obama was the candidate who left his first wife after a severe
disfiguring car accident, when she no longer measured up to his standards?
See above.
What if Obama had met his second wife in a bar and had a long affair while
he was still married?
See above.
What if Michelle Obama was the wife who not only became addicted to pain
killers but also acquired them illegally through her charitable organization?
See above.
What if Cindy McCain graduated from Harvard?
She wouldn't be hated by liberals who judge her harshly for being blond, rich and tacky. Those negative attributes would be viewed as insignificant compared to her being in possession of the liberal certificate of approval known as a Harvard diploma.
What if Obama had been a member of the Keating Five?
(The Keating Five were five United States Senators accused of corruption
in 1989, igniting a major political scandal as part of the larger Savings
and Loan crisis of the late 1980s and early 1990s.)
Obama has many worse things in his recent past and no one seems to care, so there's no reason to think a 20 year old scandal would matter. Hope and Change is all that matters.
What if McCain was a charismatic, eloquent speaker?
No one would vote for Barack - he would have lost his ability to differentiate himself.
What if Obama couldn't read from a teleprompter?
See above.
What if Obama was the one who had military experience that included
discipline problems and a record of crashing seven planes?
He'd be up by 30%, as he'd have some experience that people could respect.
What if Obama was the one who was known to display publicly, on many
occasions, a serious anger management problem?
With his lack of any other achievement in his short career, this might loom large. If he had McCain's 50+ years of professional experience, no one would care, and again, the media wouldn't write about it.
What if Michelle Obama's family had made their money from beer distribution?
They'd be rich.
What if the Obamas had adopted a white child?
Folks would be confused, but impressed at yet another example of Barack's willingness to do anything to win.
You could easily add to this list. If these questions reflected reality,
do you really believe the election numbers would be as close as they are?

This is what racism does. It covers up, rationalizes and minimizes
positive qualities in one candidate and emphasizes negative qualities in
another when there is a color difference.

Educational Background:

Barack Obama:
Columbia University - B.A. Political Science with a Specialization in
International Relations.
Harvard - Juris Doctor (J.D.) Magna Cum Laude

Joseph Biden:
University of Delaware - B.A. in History and B.A. in Political Science.
Syracuse University College of Law - Juris Doctor (J.D.)

vs.

John McCain:
United States Naval Academy - Class rank: 894 of 899

Sarah Palin:
Hawaii Pacific University - 1 semester
North Idaho College - 2 semesters - gener al study
University of Idaho - 2 semesters - journalism
Matanuska-Susitna College - 1 semester
University of Idaho - 3 semesters - B.A. in Journalism

Education isn't everything, but this is about the two highest offices in
the land as well as our standing in the world. You make the call.
Given that John McCain's education was completed around the time Barack was born, there are other things to judge him by, so education appropriately takes a back seat to experience. Since Barack lacks any qualifications for the presidency, his educational experience is vital.

Given that Joe Biden appears to suffer mental problems and has been on the wrong side of virtually every important vote during his lifelong senate career, Sarah looks awfully strong by comparison.


I've got a question for them:
  • If John McCain had 8 years in the state senate as his single largest and longest career achievement, had little to show for his time there, and had built his career by cavorting with racists, black separatists, former terrorists and other scummy people, would he have been able to get this far?
  • If Barack were not black, would he have been able to get the Democratic nomination?
Now there are some important questions for liberals to ponder. But they won't.
You make the call.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Serious

Zogby - Barack up 12.
Democrat Barack Obama's lead over Republican rival John McCain has grown to 12 points in the U.S. presidential race, with crucial independent and women voters increasingly moving to his side, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Thursday.

With less than two weeks before the November 4 election, Obama leads McCain 52 percent to 40 percent among likely voters in the latest three-day tracking poll, which had a margin of error of 2.9 points.

Obama has made steady gains over the last four days and has tripled his lead on McCain in the past week of polling.

"Obama's expansion is really across the board," pollster John Zogby said. "It seems to be among almost every demographic group."
This represents a 9 point jump over the past several days. In contrast, Gallup and Rasmussen have tightened this week, and a new AP poll has the race at 1% Barack.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Farrakhan

As much as liberals hate religion, they have no qualms about creating their own religion - or using the religion of others to manipulate.

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Hillary says...

Joe Biden was great. Sarah Palin was composed and effective - very good.

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Palin's Pakistan Problem

McCain and Palin sat down with Katie Couric and addressed the controversy over Palin's remarks about Pakistan. I don't know why they're elevating this by complaining about 'gotcha' journalism. We regularly cross the border in hot pursuit of terrorists, and that's all Palin said.


Back in August of 2007, Barack created his own Pakistan controversy:
Obama said if elected in November 2008 he would be willing to attack inside Pakistan with or without approval from the Pakistani government, a move that would likely cause anxiety in the already troubled region.

"If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won't act, we will," Obama said.
Here's Sarah:

Sunday, September 28, 2008

The Democrats' Crisis

Democrats are responsible for having blocked GOP attempts to reign in Freddie and Fanny, the government agencies responsible for having created the mortgage crisis by implementing the liberal policy of giving mortgages to unqualified people.

If you find this debate interesting and want to see how the GOP can use this to its advantage, watch former Congressman Bob Schaffer kick the crap out of Rep. Mark Udall in a debate on Meet the Press today. The two are running for the U.S. Senate in Colorado, so the race is a big one.

The whuppin' begins about 5 minutes in, and it's a real pleasure to watch.

As of four days ago, Udall's lead was down to 2%.
A day after two polls showed Democrat Mark Udall leading Republican Bob Schaffer by 8 percentage points in the fight for the U.S. Senate seat, a survey by another national polling firm released Wednesday showed a much tighter race.

The Rasmussen Reports poll gives Udall a slim two-point lead over Schaffer, 46 percent to 44 percent. Rasmussen gave Udall a six-point lead in its survey a month ago, and the survey's authors said the latest numbers suggest the race is tightening. The telephone survey of 700 likely voters was conducted Tuesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The Joy of Video

If you really want to upset the Barack supporters in your life, send them a link to this.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Almost

Meeting Over - And the deal is almost done.

Confident but not yet celebrating, congressional leaders agreed Thursday on a multibillion-dollar bailout plan for Wall Street aimed at staving off a national economic catastrophe. President Bush brought the two men fighting to succeed him to a historic White House huddle on how to sell a deal to lawmakers who were still resisting.

Welcoming Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, Bush said, "My hope is that we can reach an agreement very shortly."

It's hard to know how legitimate opposition is at this point. Those who express displeasure might just be grandstanding.

The tentative accord would give the Bush administration just a fraction of the $700 billion it had requested up front, with half the money subject to a congressional veto, congressional aides said. Under the plan, the Treasury secretary would get $250 billion immediately and could have an additional $100 billion if he certified it was needed. The last $350 billion could be blocked by a vote of Congress under the arrangement, designed to give lawmakers a stronger hand in controlling the unprecedented rescue.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Dirty Ad

When you compare the Barack Obama of primary season with the general election candidate, all questions about what sort of leader Barack might be, if he ever holds a position of leadership, are answered.

If Barack actually believes in the new kinda politics, he has readily abandoned that belief in order to win at any cost - running a campaign that is as hard-nosed, dishonest, and manipulative as any other. He is the epitome of the old kind of politics. Leaders who abandon their convictions in order to win at any cost have no convictions.

Here's another slimy, lying ad from Barack.

Here's what McCain said that is being misrepresented by The (Malicious) One.
McCain: I would also allow individuals to choose to purchase health insurance across state lines, when they can find more affordable and attractive products elsewhere that they prefer. Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation. Consumer-friendly insurance policies will be more available and affordable when there is greater competition among insurers on a level playing field.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

The City Gal & The Hillbilly

It seems that Saturday Night Live bit, with Hillary and Sarah appearing together, was prescient.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton will join the Republican vice presidential candidate at a rally outside the United Nations Monday morning to protest the appearance of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

It could be that the city girl and the hillbilly working together can punch a few more holes in the glass ceiling.



The event -- which includes prominent political and religious leaders, including Nobel Peace Prize Winner Elie Wiesel -- is being organized by a coalition of American Jewish organizations, under the umbrella group the National Coalition to Stop Iran Now.
Perhaps they'll start a women's party.

Malcolm Hoenlein, the executive vice president of the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations, said that Clinton accepted the invitation to the rally back in August, before Palin was part of the Republican presidential ticket. "We had approached Republican leaders because we wanted to have this event on a nonpartisan basis." The Republicans offered up Palin today, he said.
The potential of the McCain campaign having video of Sarah and Hillary together to use in a TV commercial strikes me as good reason to assume that they'll find some way to keep Hillary away from the newest rock star.

Hoenlein said Clinton has been informed of Palin's plans to attend the event and that she has no intention of pulling out. Will they appear together on the stage? "We haven't yet worked out the details," Hoenlein said. "A lot of this will depend on the Secret Service."

"Yes, that's it. It was the Secret Service. That's the ticket!"

Friday, September 12, 2008

Poll Update

All polls from the last couple of days show McCain leading a bit, but the numbers are small enough so you should think about this as a tied race.

Rasmussen Tracking09/09 - 09/113000 LV4845
McCain +3
Gallup Tracking09/08 - 09/102718 RV4844McCain +4
Hotline/FD Tracking09/08 - 09/10902 RV4644McCain +2
FOX News09/08 - 09/09900 RV4542McCain +3

The Sarah Palin effect has been enormous. It has 1) tied the race, 2) swung the cameras off of Barack and onto the McCain/Palin ticket, 3) energized Republicans, and 4) made affiliating with the GOP seem more desirable.

In recent months, polls have shown that voters prefer Democrats over Republicans this election year by 10 to 15%. That has changed.
A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters' "generic ballot" preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.
We have all been expecting that Democrats will assume strong control of Congress even if Barack loses the presidential election, as I expect he will. What if the anti-GOP feeling has run its course already?
Democratic voters are nearly uniform in their support for the Democratic candidate in their congressional districts (92%), Republican voters are nearly uniform in their support for the Republican candidate (94%), and independents are closely split, with 44% backing the Democrat and 40% the Republican.
One caveat to keep in mind - it is too soon after the conventions for reality to have set back into the numbers. Take these indications with a larger grain of salt than usual.
Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.
That, my friend, is an incredible turn of events.
The sustainability of all of these findings is an open question that polling will answer over the next few weeks.

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

23 Points

Catholic voters are good predictors of national elections, says George Stephanopoulos on the news tonight. He's right.
“The Catholic vote has been the classic swing vote in American presidential politics. In the last nine Presidential elections, the candidate who won the Catholic vote has won the popular vote nationwide.
The latest ABC News poll shows McCain/Palin leading by 23 points, 59% to 36%, reports George. The story was very different two weeks ago.
Catholic voters, who make up 25% of the American electorate, are currently splitting their vote for president between Barack Obama and John McCain, but are united in their aversion to mixing religion and politics.
What's the difference? Sarah Palin? Probably. ABC is reporting again tonight on the 20 point swing amongst women, post convention. Perhaps that's where the big Catholic move is coming from.
“White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama’s favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that’s one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences,” writes ABC’s political analyst Gary Langer. “The other, also to McCain’s advantage, is in the battleground Midwest, where he’s moved from a 19-point deficit to a 7-point edge.”

More Numbers

CBS News has a poll out that shows McCain in a 2 point lead - reflecting the movement that other polls are showing as the post convention numbers continue coming in. Here's the lineup:
USA Today - McCain up 10%
Gallup Tracking - McCain up 5%
Rasmussen - McCain up 1%
ABC News/Wash Post McCain up 2%
CBS News - McCain up 2%
CBS analysis of its numbers is also similar to what other polls are showing.
Republican presidential nominee John McCain leads Democratic rival Barack Obama 46 percent to 44 percent in the latest CBS News poll, which was taken in the three days following the completion of the parties' nominating conventions.

Palin's favorable rating now stands at 44 percent, twice what it was immediately after her selection as McCain's nominee. Biden's favorable rating stands at 37 percent, identical to his pre-convention rating. Independents are more likely to have a favorable opinion of Palin (46 percent) than they are of Biden (31 percent).

McCain's move ahead of Obama can be traced in part to movement among previously undecided voters. In this survey, CBS News re-interviewed respondents to a CBS News/New York Times poll taken in mid-August. While many previously undecided voters remain undecided, more of those re-interviewed have moved towards McCain than Obama.

Thanks in large part to the Palin selection, McCain has rallied his white evangelical supporters. The percentage of white evangelical McCain supporters re-interviewed for this survey who are enthusiastic about McCain has doubled to 48 percent from before the convention.

Nearly three in four former supporters of Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, now back Obama over McCain. In the August survey, a smaller percentage, 63 percent, backed the man who bested Clinton in the Democratic primaries.

Monday, September 8, 2008

Palin's Big Bang

The Sarah Palin Effect? A convention bounce for McCain of as much as 13 points. Barack's bounce averaged a little over 4 points.
USA Today/Gallup - McCain up 10%
Gallup Tracking - McCain up 5%
Rasmussen - McCain up 1%
ABC News/Wash Post 2%
Jake Tapper reports on his ABC News Blog that:

There are Obama supporters who feel Clinton needs to make a strong case against Palin. And they are intrigued -- and troubled -- by the fact that she won't.

While the New York Times reports:
The names at the top of the ballot on Nov. 4 will be McCain and Obama, but the juicier battle this fall for an important group of swing voters — white working women with children — may be fought between the other two stars of the Republican and Democratic conventions, Sarah Palin and Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Hillary can't just root for Barack to lose anymore so that she can run in four years. Now she has Vice President Sarah Palin to worry about. It ain't easy being Hillary!!!
She has no intention of turning over her “18 million cracks in the glass ceiling,” as she called her supporters, to Ms. Palin, a social conservative whose policy positions are poison in Hillaryland. What is more, Mrs. Clinton wants to be the one to make history as the first woman to win at the top of a presidential ticket, be it in 2012 or 2016.
Consider, also, how Obama looks if he has to send Hillary out to protect him from Sarah!
Clinton advisers say that Mrs. Clinton wants to do everything she can to elect Mr. Obama, so that she cannot be blamed if he loses — yet she also does not want to be too closely associated with him if he does lose, nor to tarnish her own image by taking on a rookie national politician like Ms. Palin and possibly coming up short.

Agree with Inhofe

Oklahoma Senator Jim Inhofe says that Barack Obama can't win the presidency. I agree with his reasoning, and have for a long time.
Regardless of what polls show, Inhofe said, voters will have to ask themselves a question once they get behind the curtain in the voting booth on Election Day.

"Do you really want to have a guy as commander in chief of this country when you can question whether or not he really loves his country?" he asked.

"That's the big question.''
I'm not part of the crowd that thinks it can, or should, judge the patriotism of others based on their politics. I've never questioned anyone's patriotism that I can recall. But Barack's affiliation with Reverends Wright and Pfleger, along with his close alliance with the domestic terrorist Bill Ayers, present compelling evidence of an underlying radicalism. Throw in his wife's statements about the country for seasoning.

Inhofe went on to deny that he was doing what he was doing.
After he was asked for an explanation on why voters should question Obama's love for his country, Inhofe issued a written statement on Friday to clarify his earlier comments."Let me be clear,'' he said.

"I am not questioning Sen. Obama's patriotism, but you have to question why at times he seems so obviously opposed to public displays of patriotism and national pride, like wearing an American flag lapel pin.''

Inhofe said Americans can show pride in their country in different ways but suggested all should be straightforward.
Of course he's questioning Barack's patriotism, as well he should. But in our world of dumb media, this technique protects the stater of fact from facing the music for stating the facts. McCain used this trick quite successfully.

When Barack's alliances are explored by the 527's over the next several weeks, his dropping poll numbers will get down for good.