Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Where's the Competition?

Is the possible Obama money miscalculation being exacerbated by overreaching in the number of states it wants to put into play.
"One of our strategic goals here is to wake up on the morning of Nov. 4 with as many pathways to 270 electoral votes as possible," David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, recently told reporters. Nov. 4 is election day.
There are a number of states where Barack has organization and has spent money on advertising where McCain still looks stronger.
McCain has no field office in Georgia, using instead a Florida-based office for the Southeast. Yet he has reason for optimism: An aggregate of public polls compiled by the website Pollster.com shows McCain with a 6-point lead in Georgia.
Obama is pushing hard in North Carolina.
No Democratic candidate for president has won North Carolina since Jimmy Carter in 1976. This year, Obama has sent more than 100 paid staff to the state. The same nonpartisan ad study, compiled in part by the Wisconsin Advertising Project, showed that Obama aired more than $1.6 million worth of ads in North Carolina over a seven-week period this summer, compared with none for McCain.

Yet Pollster.com showed McCain with a 3-point edge in North Carolina.
The McCain managers are also unfazed by Barack's Montana incursion.
Montana is a small prize with just three electoral votes, but it has gotten considerable attention from the Obama campaign. Obama is airing TV commercials in the state, which last voted Democratic in the 1992 presidential race. He has opened 17 offices in Montana and visited the state five times, according to Democratic officials.
Republicans aren't the only ones unimpressed with Barack's strategy.
Even some Democrats privately wonder about Obama's strategy, questioning whether resources might be better spent on states that look more winnable.
When you combine the potential for Barack's refusal of federal funds to lead to money struggles as the steam comes out of his campaign with a possible overreach on strategy, Barack may have created a potential disaster scenario.
In McCain's view, the election hinges on several Rust Belt and Upper Midwest states, particularly Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as the perennial battleground of Florida.

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