We're Number 1

Who was right when it came to predicting the outcome of the presidential race? I was.

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate?

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

Here at BWL, the focus was on Rasmussen, which I told you often was the best of the polls, in my opinion. We focused on Rasmussen along with Gallup and Zogby.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama's strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points -- 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama's final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two -- Rasmussen and Pew -- were spot on.

Here is the list --

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

On the other hand, I told you that Barack was unelectable. But I stand by that position, even given the results on Tuesday.

Exit Polls IV

Some exit poll numbers for Virginia and Indiana.

VA
Change Voters - 92% Obama
Experience Voters - 93% McCain
Evangelicals - 78% McCain
Suburbs - 54% Barack

IN
Independents - 58% Obama
New Voters - 68% Barack
Whites no college - 50% McCain
White Evangelicals - 66% McCain

With key states in the east, we should know fairly early how things are going, assuming they don't keep polls open very late because of large crowds. Here are the key states and when they close. McCain needs 5 out of 6 of these battleground states.

7pm - VA and Indiana

7:30 - NC and OH

8pm - FL & PA

Exit polls from battleground states:

60% of voters say the economy is the key issue, 11% name Iraq.

71% disapprove of the president.

Exit Polls III

50% say Barack has the experience to be president.

42% say they are worse off than 4 years ago.

68% support offshore drilling

49% expect higher taxes either way.

61% say Michelle will be goof first lady

32% of voters say they will be scared if Barack wins. 30% with McCain.

51% say government should do more to solve problems, 41% say gov is doing too much.

67% worry about affording health care.

40% think Mccain is in touch

42% think Obama too liberal, but 57% think he has right judgment, vs 49% for McCain.

66% say McCain attacked Barack unfairly.

85% worried about economy next year, 81% believe it may harm their family..

6% happy with economy, 47% expect it to improve next year.

40% support the bailout, 56% oppose.

50% believe McCain will continue Bush policies.

Virginia - McCain wins white men by 19%. Good news for McCain, but that's half of what W.'s margin was for white men in VA.

Indiana - 56-41 Independents go for Barack.

Young Voters - 72-27 Barack over McCain. No increase in young voters.

Exit Polls II

From Gawker:

See, we told you not to get too excited. The first state exit polls have crossed our transom and they look like Obama's margins are tighter than recent polling in key states Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. So hold your breath.

Exit Polls I

For what it's worth, exit polls were embargoed until 5pm, which means they are embargoed no longer. Will keep you up to date as they become available.

From AP:

The economy is by far the top issue on voters' minds as Election Day at last arrives.

An Associated Press exit poll finds six in 10 voters across the country picked the economy as the most important issue facing the nation. None of four other issues on the list — energy, Iraq, terrorism and health care — was picked by more than one in 10.

Not surprisingly, voters also have a very sour view of the condition of the nation's economy. About half said it's poor and nearly as many said the economy is not good. The results are based on a preliminary partial sample of nearly 10,000 voters in Election Day exit polls and telephone interviews over the past week for early voters.

From Gawker.com

Before we tell you what we're hearing the exit poll numbers are saying, can we just remind you about Bob Shrum who famously asked John Kerry, after the 2004 early exit polls came out, "Can I be the first to call you Mr. President?" After the jump, the numbers we're hearing are floating around.

Estimate for Obama low end is 300 EVs

Potentially as high as 350. The realistic number is between the high and 320.

Obama is +40 among Hispanics, +60 among young voters.

Also remember, more Ds than Rs will talk to exit pollsters. So it will be skewed D. It always is.

Slate, which has long argued that journalistic principle forces them to release exit poll numbers, spent Election Day 2004 telling readers that exit poll numbers were "mucho flattering" for Kerry. So, yeah, Obamaniacs, go crazy at your own peril.

CNN headlines its exit poll story by indicating that voters are "Excited by Historic Choice." I assume they're referring to the opportunity to vote for the oldest incoming president ever?