Polls - Little Change

McCain has failed to take the lead, but the lead that Barack hangs on to remains negligible according to the latest polls. As Obama heads off for a week's vacation tomorrow in advance of the Democratic convention, McCain has 10 days or so to finalize his summer defining on Barack before prime time TV and VP choices take center stage and kick off the fall campaign.

Gallup continues to show a 3 point Barack lead, and Rasmussen remains at 1%. But the fight for independent voters may not be settled for some time.

If the race for the White House remains close, the final decision may be rest in the hands of voters who are not yet paying attention to the campaign.

Rasmussen asks people to grade their attention to the campaign on a 1 to 9 scale, a 9 indicating that they watch things develop on a daily basis. Independents aren't paying all that much attention yet.

Forty-two percent (42%) of McCain supporters say they’re following the race on a daily basis along with 39% of Obama supporters and 35% of those who will vote for a third-party candidate. However, among the undecided voters, just 19% say they’re paying that much attention. On that nine-point scale, most undecided voters say their interest in the campaign is a “6” or less.

Inside the Numbers

If you want to understand what the campaigns are up to, you have to look inside the polls.

Did voters think McCain's ad with Paris and Britney was injecting race into the campaign?

Just 22% believe the ad was racist. But, most say Obama’s comment about not looking like other Presidents on the dollar bill was racist.

Why did Barack change his stand on offshore drilling and tapping into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve?

Forty-six percent (46%) of voters trust McCain more than Obama on energy issues while Obama is trusted more by 42%. Two months ago, Obama had a four point edge on the energy issue.

Don't all the analysts tell us this race is a fight over independent voters?

A week ago today, Obama had a three-percentage point lead and the candidates were even among unaffiliated voters. Today, McCain leads 52% to 37% among unaffiliateds.

Why does the media make it seem as if McCain is the one with the popularity problem when independent voters like McCain better by 14%?

Obama is viewed favorably by 83% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans, and 47% of unaffiliated voters. For McCain, the numbers are 87% favorable among Republicans, 26% among Democrats, and 61% among unaffiliated voters.

What was the effect of Barack's trip overseas?

McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 51%. That is the lowest rating for Obama since he wrapped up the nomination.

What should have the Obama campaign most nervous?

Forty-six percent (46%) of voters nationwide now say that Obama views U.S. society as unfair and discriminatory. That’s up from 43% in July and 39% in June. By a three-to-one margin, American voters hold the opposite view and believe that our society is generally fair and decent.

That's why the Obama campaign feels the need to play the race card - they want concerns about Barack's views, his patriotism and his inexperience to be linked to racist attitudes so people will be afraid to use these rational criteria for judging Barack.

McCain's lead

Of the two polls that take a daily, constant look at the race for President, Rasmussen is, in my opinion, the gold standard. With a sample size of 3000, it shows a running tally of the last 3 days of surveys of likely voters. Today, for the first time since Barack secured the nomination on June 3, John McCain leads.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows the race for the White House is tied with Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote. However, when "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 47% and Obama 46%.

It's not a statistically significant lead, but it's a break-thru nonetheless, and one that continues a tightening trend that has been going on for some time.

This is the first time McCain has enjoyed even a statistically insignificant advantage of any sort since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination on June 3.

The other daily tracking poll, by Gallup, operates on the same premise as Rasmussen, but it tests registered voters, a less carefully filtered pool, for whether they are the voters likely to be taking part in the voting on November 4. In addition, it uses a smaller sample size. As a result, it's a bit more volatile. After having showed the race tied the last couple of days, it now shows Barack with a 3 point lead.

The three percentage point advantage for Obama matches the average since early June, when Obama clinched the number of delegates needed to head to the Democratic convention as the presumptive presidential nominee. Since then, Obama has never trailed McCain among registered voters, though McCain has tied Obama five times during this span, including Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports for last Friday and Saturday.

This is the second poll in a week that has put Barack in second place. A USA Today/Gallup poll that tested for registered voters and was released a week ago showed McCain with a four point lead.

Barack's Support Continues to Slip

There are more negative signs for Barack in the latest numbers.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 42% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%.

The one point lead for Barack is an improvement - it was tied yesterday. But,

That’s the lowest level of support measured for Obama since he clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination on June 3. Obama’s support peaked at 48% with data released on June 8, 9, and 10. During that same time frame, McCain’s support has remained steady in the 40% to 42% range (he’s had just one day a point below that range and two days a point above it).

Is this all Barack will be able to muster - a glass ceiling?

When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 46% and McCain 45%. With leaners, Obama reached 50% support in mid-June and was at 48% or 49% every day from June 13 until July 10. Since then, he has reached the 48% level just once while polling consistently at 46% or 47% (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

So, Barack's downward trend continues - his campaign remains essentially stalled since Reverend Wright first appeared in mid-March. I continue to believe that the media is failing to see, or report, a huge structural problem for Barack. It just may be that he can't do any better than this - that he is unacceptable to most Americans. His drops have taken place while McCain has remained flat, with a campaign that has yet to find its footing. What happens when it does?

Despite the illusion created in the media, voters like McCain better. This holds true amongst what we're told is the key battleground group, independent voters.

McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of voters, Obama by 53%. McCain is currently supported by 86% of Republicans and holds a modest--four percentage point—lead among unaffiliated voters. Obama earns the vote from 77% of Democrats (see other recent demographic highlights).