Brilliant

Almost everyone I've spoken with who isn't rooting for Barack is thrilled with the VP choice of Sarah Palin. Now the polls are proving the brilliance of the move.

First, the new Zogby poll, begun on Friday after Palin was named and finished this morning, shows McCain leading by 2%.

McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden.

And the two daily tracking polls have started to shift toward McCain. Gallup had Barack up 8% after his convention bump - that's now down to 6%. And Rasmussen has dropped from a 4 point lead for Obama to 3%. The downward trends are the result of the Saturday polling, just one third of the results in a three day poll. But the news inside the Rasmussen poll is the most telling.

Today’s numbers show a one-point improvement for McCain, but Obama still leads 47% to 44%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 46% (see recent daily results). Obama is now viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters, McCain by 56%.

No difference in favorability after Barack's big speech is huge - but check this out!

There have been significant changes in perception of John McCain in the two days of polling since he named Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Since then, 49% of Republicans voice a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. That’s up six percentage points from 43% just before the announcement. Also, 64% of unaffiliated voters now give positive reviews to McCain, up ten points since naming his running mate.

Independent voters are going to decide the election, so a ten point move is striking.

There has been little change in perceptions of Obama since his Thursday night speech....

We have to assume that Barack would have received a good bump from his speech, the convention climax, had the McCain campaign not managed its VP announcment so masterfully, and if not for the excitement created by its selection.

Palin herself made a good first impression and is now viewed favorably by 53% of voters nationwide. Her counterpart, Joe Biden, is viewed favorably by 48%.

Palin is what we call a game-changer.

Hitting a Girl

After having messed up on its initial response to the choice of Sarah Palin, Barack's folks are treading more lightly now, still off-balance from the surprise. Their first ad responding to her selection doesn't mention her - it just laments that he's still the same old John McCain.

Game Changer?

There are only two explanations. Either the campaign has fallen apart, or it has orchestrated what it thinks will be a dramatic enough choice for vice president that it will create an explosion of media excitement - a buzz that will compensate having wasted a week of coverage before announcing Barack's vice presidential pick.

Sen. Barack Obama has told some of the candidates on his vice president shortlist that they didn't make the cut, CNN has learned, but he's still not naming names.

Potential game changers? Hillary, of course is the big one. A surprise, alternative candidate, someone not considered one of the front runners, is a secondary possibility. But the latter option doesn't excuse waiting all week to make the announcement.

Obama is at home Friday in Chicago, Illinois, with no public events planned before launching a string of rallies with his running mate ahead of the Democratic National Convention next week in Denver, Colorado.

So maybe the campaign has really had trouble deciding. McCain's surging campaign has changed the dynamics in the race, and perhaps Team Obama has felt it's more important to spend the time sorting through scenarios and waiting until the last possible moment before finalizing the decision.

Obama is expected to appear at a rally with his running mate Saturday in Springfield, Illinois. It's unclear just when the campaign will announce the vice presidential choice via text message.