We're Number 1

Who was right when it came to predicting the outcome of the presidential race? I was.

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate?

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

Here at BWL, the focus was on Rasmussen, which I told you often was the best of the polls, in my opinion. We focused on Rasmussen along with Gallup and Zogby.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama's strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points -- 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama's final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two -- Rasmussen and Pew -- were spot on.

Here is the list --

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

On the other hand, I told you that Barack was unelectable. But I stand by that position, even given the results on Tuesday.

Breakdown

Look at how voters view the candidates on the major issues as revealed in the latest Rasmussen daily tracking poll. Barack leads significantly only on the environment and healthcare, while McCain leads bigtime on national security, the war in Iraq, immigration, taxes and abortion. Barack is trusted more only on 4 of these 14 major issues. Do you feel you've gotten a good sense of this from media coverage?

McCain-Obama: Trust on Issues	McCain	Obama	Links
Economy	45%	44%	C, T
National Security	51%	40%	C, T
Energy	46%	42%	C, T
Ethics	44%	46%	C, T
Iraq	51%	39%	C, T
Immigration	45%	36%	C, T
Environment	40%	48%	C, T
Balance Federal Budget	43%	40%	C, T
Negotiate Trade Agreements	45%	40%	C, T
Taxes	47%	40%	C, T
Social Security	44%	38%	C, T
Healthcare	41%	46%	C, T
Education	39%	43%	C, T
Abortion	40%	34%	C, T

By the way, Barack leads by two points in the poll.

Barack Gets Weaker

The more voters get to know Barack, the less impressed they are. Or, perhaps that's backwards - maybe it's just that the more they get to know John McCain, the more impressed they are.

...the Arizona senator has made gains on his leadership image. An even greater percentage of voters than in June now see McCain as the candidate who would use the best judgment in a crisis, and an increasing percentage see him as the candidate who can get things done.

Wait until the next Pew Research Poll, when the numbers will show the impact of McCain's leadership on the situation in Georgia.

Pew's latest survey finds 46% of registered voters saying they favor or lean to the putative Democratic candidate, while 43% back his likely Republican rival. In late June, Obama held a comfortable 48%-to-40% margin over McCain, which narrowed in mid-July to 47% to 42%.

From June till August, McCain's 9% advantage in crisis leadership has jumped to 13%, he is perceived as someone willing to take unpopular stands by 11% more than Barack compared to a 3% lead before, and McCain has a 2% advantage being seen as someone who can get things done, a category that Barack lead by 6% in June. Barack continues his slow slide that started in mid-March with the emergence of Jeremiah Wright.

Obama has made little progress in increasing his support among core Democrats since June - currently 83% favor him compared with 87% of Republicans who back McCain. The likely Democratic nominee is still getting relatively modest support from Hillary Clinton's former supporters: 72% of them support Obama, compared with the 88% support level that McCain receives from backers of his formal GOP rivals. Obama's strong points with voters are in being seen as the candidate with new ideas and as someone who connects well with ordinary people.

In other polls, Rasmussen shows Barack leading by 2% for the second day in a row, while Gallup shows a 6% Obama advantage.