Where's Barack?

Last Friday, after the McCain vice presidential pick was revealed, I'm told that Rush opened his show by asking, "Does anybody remember Barack Obama?" or, "When is Barack going to give his speech," or some such humor.

Sarah Palin has had that kind of impact on this race - today, she's front page news again, as the pregnancy of her 17 year old daughter continues to percolate. The net effect? Palin is reinforced as a real live person who happened to get into power, alone in that unique stature as she faces off against career politicians who live for the pursuit of power.

Obama can do little more than try to gain some high ground points for saying the pregnancy is personal, family business, and everyone should lay off. It's a sideline position, but it's all he has.

The tide continues to turn against him.

Barack has built his campaign on the premise of America being in a malaise. The malaise perception was largely driven by the war in Iraq (now going so well everyone assumes it's been won), and the price of oil.

From a high at the beginning of the summer up around $147, the cost of a barrel has dropped procipitously.

Oil prices fell below $106 a barrel Tuesday in Asia - $10 below its close Friday before the Labor Day weekend - as investors shifted their focus to slowing global demand after worries about Hurricane Gustav subsided.

Light, sweet crude for October delivery was trading at $106.03 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange midafternoon in Singapore, and at one point dropped as low as $105.46.

Suppliers are suddenly trying to figure out how to keep the price from breaking the $100 barrier.

"The market continues to be weighed down by worries of a global economic downturn and slowing oil demand in developing markets," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with consultancy Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "Action by OPEC and supply side concerns should put a backstop to any sharp price drop."

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is scheduled to meet Sept. 9 and has indicated it may take action to defend the $100 a barrel level.

The combination of Sarah Palin and Good News have created a new dynamic into the race that has the Obama campaign struggling how to regain its footing, just days after the end of the party's convention. Even Gustav failed to do its job in bringing the country back into the malaise.

As a hurricane, Gustav left half of New Orleans without power as it lashed Louisiana and Mississippi, toppling trees and tearing off roofs. The city's flood defenses were intact and the death toll may have been kept to single figures, officials said. Katrina flooded 80 percent of the city and killed 1,800 people.

Gustav turned to an advantage as the loss of the convention's first day pushed President Bush and Dick Cheney off the agenda, and the storm went away quickly allowing the convention to get back on track.

Sports

Footage of Sarah Palin during her sportscasting days.

Squeeze Those Lemons

John McCain's convention being blown out by a hurricane could be a disaster for his candidacy.

Prediction: I think the storm coinciding with the Republican Convention will ultimately lead to an advantage for John McCain.

Warning to Michael Moore (and other McCain haters): Be careful what you wish for.

“I was just thinking, this Gustav is proof that there is a God in heaven,” Moore said, laughing. “To have it planned at the same time – that it would actually be on its way to New Orleans for day one of the Republican Convention, up in the Twin Cities – at the top of the Mississippi River.”

I don't mind the sick humor. If I were on his side, I might have a chuckle, too, at McCain's misfortune. But what if it isn't unfortunate for the GOP?

The challenge of life is to make lemonade out of them lemons, and I have a feeling that's what the Republican candidates will do. As McCain prepares to tamp down the hoopla in Minnesota, consider the repercutions of the storm:
1) McCain gets to focus on the storm, showing leadership.
2) Media storylines this week will be more focused on McCain than Barack - during a time of crisis.
3) On the third anniversary of Katrina, McCain will emphasize how much better he handles these types of things than did President Bush.
4) Instead of posing in Minnesota, he may give his speech from a remote location near the storm damage. An action speech, rather than a poser speech.

And consider this:

President Bush is unlikely to make it to the Republican National Convention, and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) may deliver his acceptance speech via satellite because of the historically huge hurricane threatening New Orleans, top officials said.

No Bush speech spells good news for McCain, as well.

Thoughtful Analysis

Finally, analysis of the Palin selection that shows some insight.

Timing

Timing is everything. That's the old saying, and it appears to be true in the campaign of John McCain, whose convention, and campaign, stands ready to be robbed of its week in the spotlight by Hurricane Gustav.

Preparations continue along the Gulf Coast where Gustav will pose a serious threat to lives and property early next week. Newly-formed Tropical Storm Hanna could eventually create problems for the Bahamas in the days following Gustav's landfall.

Today marks the anniversary of one of the most devastating natural disasters in United States history, the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. With the destruction and loss of lives during Katrina fresh of many people's minds, the Gulf Coast prepares for Gustav.

As of 5 a.m. EDT, Gustav was a strong tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Centerreports the storm will strengthen into a hurricane today as it departs the mountainous island of Jamaica.

On the other hand, life isn't about the hardships that come your way, it's about how you react. McCain's campaign has shown itself to be pretty adept at responding to events, and I suspect they're planning right now how to maximize the opportunity that a hurricane convention presents.

Drudge has an undeveloped headline suggesting that the " GOP may delay start of convention because of Hurricane Gustav." How do they do that?

The fact remains, however, that three years after Katrina, this is a cruel reminder of W's disinterest, and government incompetence, surrounding that event.

Who?

McCain has done a nice job of playing the VP card in such a manner as to steal some news cycle from Barack's big speech. On my local news, the lead story was Barack, followed by McCain's pick being announced today, followed by the weather.

Speaking of the weather, there is a hurricane coming that appears designed to make it impossible for John McCain to escape the linkage to George Bush that Democrats seek to create in the minds of voters. Imagine Gustav coming to shore through the Gulf of Mexico and hitting Louisiana and Mississippi on Wednesday night in the middle of John McCain's convention? Now that would take some skill to finesse. Katrina was three years ago today.

In the meantime, the McCain campaign is skillfully maneuvering to limit the surge from Barack's big night, even while being respectful of it.

Arizona Sen. John McCain is expected to announced his pick for vice president Thursday evening or Friday.

He decided to wait until Friday after teasing a Thursday night announcement. Leaving us all to wonder - who?

A source familiar with the search said a number of the VP contenders, including Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman, I-Conn., former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and others are expected to travel to Dayton for a Friday rally when McCain is expected to announce his running mate. That will create even more buzz around the pick, the source said.

It obviously isn't Huckabee. Lieberman is very unlikely. Romney has some positives, but would ultimately undermine Barack's appeal to evangelicals and to crossover voters. And he has the baggage of his health reform bill in Massachusetts. Which is why I figure Pawlenty is the guy.

Pawlenty, Romney and Lieberman are seen as the most likely picks, according to the source, while others familiar with the campaign single out Pawlenty and Romney.

But I keep hoping for a game-changer. A woman would be the best thing, a draw for disgruntled Democrats.

There also has been speculation that McCain might pick a woman for his running mate after Democrat Barack Obama tapped U.S. Sen Joseph Biden, D-Del., rather than U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y. U.S Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, former EBay CEO Meg Whitman, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin are in the mix.

Hutchinson is too old school in my mind. The benefit would be lost. No one without government experience can be John McCain's running mate - it would create a vulnerability considering his age. The CEO angle is just a tease. Sarah Palin, in her first term as Governor of Alaska, can't be considered to be experienced enough.

How about Condi Rice? Why hasn't there been more speculation about her? She's likely being ruled out because she's never held elected office.

Leaving us again with Pawlenty.