Palin's Big Bang

The Sarah Palin Effect? A convention bounce for McCain of as much as 13 points. Barack's bounce averaged a little over 4 points.

USA Today/Gallup - McCain up 10%
Gallup Tracking - McCain up 5%
Rasmussen - McCain up 1%
ABC News/Wash Post 2%

Jake Tapper reports on his ABC News Blog that:

There are Obama supporters who feel Clinton needs to make a strong case against Palin. And they are intrigued -- and troubled -- by the fact that she won't.

While the New York Times reports:

The names at the top of the ballot on Nov. 4 will be McCain and Obama, but the juicier battle this fall for an important group of swing voters — white working women with children — may be fought between the other two stars of the Republican and Democratic conventions, Sarah Palin and Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Hillary can't just root for Barack to lose anymore so that she can run in four years. Now she has Vice President Sarah Palin to worry about. It ain't easy being Hillary!!!

She has no intention of turning over her “18 million cracks in the glass ceiling,” as she called her supporters, to Ms. Palin, a social conservative whose policy positions are poison in Hillaryland. What is more, Mrs. Clinton wants to be the one to make history as the first woman to win at the top of a presidential ticket, be it in 2012 or 2016.

Consider, also, how Obama looks if he has to send Hillary out to protect him from Sarah!

Clinton advisers say that Mrs. Clinton wants to do everything she can to elect Mr. Obama, so that she cannot be blamed if he loses — yet she also does not want to be too closely associated with him if he does lose, nor to tarnish her own image by taking on a rookie national politician like Ms. Palin and possibly coming up short.

Even

It is convention eve, and the latest Gallup tracking poll shows the presidential race as a tie.

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update finds a precise tie between John McCain and Barack Obama, with 45% of nationwide registered voters currently supporting each candidate for president.

The initial polling results on Joe Biden show very little impact.

Barack Obama's selection of U.S. Sen. and former presidential candidate Joe Biden as his running mate is not generating a momentous immediate reaction from the nation's voters. Just 14% of registered voters interviewed in a new USA Today/Gallup poll say Biden makes them more likely to vote for Obama in November and 7% say less likely while 72% say he will not have much effect on their vote.

And while Democrats continue to have a 10% advantage in registration, Barack continues to struggle to get Democrats to support him.

Whereas 84% of Republicans polled from Aug. 11-17 say they will vote for McCain in November, only 79% of Democrats say they will vote for Obama. A similar gap in party loyalty has been seen each week since Obama clinched the Democratic nomination in early June. Over this period, Obama's Democratic support has ranged from 78% to 82% while McCain's Republican support has ranged from 83% to 85%.

Short Bounce

Barack's bounce appears to be fading already. Yesterday, he had a 5 point lead from Rasmussen and a 9 point lead from Gallup, but today offers a different picture.

Gallup has dropped, but just one point, to an 8% lead for Barack. But Rasmussen goes back to 3% for Obama.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that Barack Obama’s Berlin bounce is fading. Obama now attracts 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 45%. Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 56% of voters.

But here's the most remarkable news. Another Gallup poll, done for USA Today, shows McCain in the lead!!!

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.

That's a 10 point swing in just a month - and, these numbers were collected Friday thru Sunday, when Barack was at the peak of his Overseas Buzz. Which puts Barack into very tight territory in the Real Clear Politics average of current polls.

With today's Rasmussen and Gallup tracking both ticking down for Obama (-2 and -1, respectively) and a new Dem Corps poll showing Obama up five, the new RCP National Average has Obama's lead over McCain dipping to 3.2%.