Sarah Smile

Now there are two polls out showing that Barack's bounce is gone. Earlier Sunday afternoon, the Zogby poll gave McCain a 2 point lead, and now the CNN/Opinion Research poll, released Sunday evening, confirms that Barack's ride was a short one.

With a survey of voters taken Friday through today, the results show that 49 percent said they support the Democratic presidential ticket Barack Obama and Joe Biden and 48 percent support the Republican team of John McCain and Sarah Palin.

Maybe it was Palin?

Maybe, maybe not - the favorable rating on McCain's running-mate pick is running at 52 percent. The voters surveyed were asked to rate McCain's choice of Palin, announced on Friday after Obama's convention ended. Only 27 percent called it excellent and 25 percent called it good - that's a 52-percent positive. But 21 percent called it a fair pick and 25 percent called it a poor pick - a 46 percent negative.

Double Even

Yesterday, Gallup showed the presidential race as a tie, while Rasmussen's Daily Tracking Poll had a 3 point lead for Obama. Today, the lead for Obama is gone.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 44% of the vote while John McCain also earns 44%. When "leaners" are included, it’s still tied with Obama at 46% and McCain at 46%.

McCain continues to do better with Republicans than does Barack with Democrats.

Obama is supported by 78% of Democrats while McCain gets the vote from 85% of Republicans. The GOP hopeful also has a slight advantage among unaffiliated voters.

Is Hillary the reason for Barack's drop?

Obama’s support has declined in each of the last three individual nights of polling. This may be either statistical noise or a reaction to the selection of Biden. If it’s the latter, it probably has less to do with Biden than Hillary Clinton. Forty-seven percent (47%) of Democratic women say Clinton should have been picked and 21% of them say they’ll vote for McCain.

Rasmussen's state by state analysis no longer shows Barack with an electoral college victory. With leaning states included, the tally is Obama 264, McCain 247.

Barack is running 11% behind generic congressional Democrats.

Tie

It's not just Gallup - now a new CNN/Opinion Research Poll also shows the race tied.

The first national poll conducted after Barack Obama publicly named Joe Biden as his running mate suggests that the battle for the presidency between the Illinois senator and John McCain is all tied up.

In a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Sunday night, 47 percent of those questioned are backing Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominees, with an equal amount supporting his Republican opponent, McCain.

This creates a unique moment going into the conventions, with Barack having completed a month of disorganized flatfootedness.

"This looks like a step backward for Obama, who had a 51 to 44 percent advantage last month," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Even last week, just before his choice of Joe Biden as his running mate became known, most polls tended to show Obama with a single-digit advantage over McCain."

Over the past two months, you would think that Barack would have healed the gulf with Hillary supporters. Incredibly, things have gone in the other direction.

Sixty-six percent of Clinton supporters -- registered Democrats who want Clinton as the nominee -- are now backing Obama. That's down from 75 percent in the end of June. Twenty-seven percent of them now say they'll support McCain, up from 16 percent in late June.

"The number of Clinton Democrats who say they would vote for McCain has gone up 11 points since June, enough to account for most, although not all, of the support McCain has gained in that time," Holland said.

Swinging Which Way?

It's a rare event when the polls agree, but the Saturday editions of the Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking polls both show a statistical dead heat - with Obama up 1%.

One swing state that we're told will swing Democratic this year is Colorado, where the Democratic Convention commences in a matter of days. But the mood there has been swinging against Barack.

The race for Colorado’s Electoral College votes is about as close as it can be on the eve of the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Colorado voters shows John McCain attracting 47% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 45%. When “leaners” are included, it’s McCain by a single percentage point, 49% to 48%.

Another state that Barack is supposed to swing from red to blue is Virginia.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race shows Barack Obama with a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over John McCain, 46% to 45%. When “leaners” are factored in, it’s McCain with a statistically insignificant one-point edge, 48% to 47%.

It is also said that Nevada is becoming a blue state.

The race for Nevada’s Electoral College votes remains close, but for the fourth time in the last five months John McCain has a slight advantage. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows McCain attracting 45% of the vote while Obama earns 42%.