Shift

With today's update of its daily tracking poll, Rasmussen shows a two point shift toward McCain. Yesterday's Zogby poll, which has Obama leading by just 2%, is more easily accepted as part of a trend back toward McCain now that Rasmussen has Barack up by just 6%.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. For the past thirteen days, Obama’s support has ranged from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45% every day.

It could be that last week's VP debate, which resurrected Sarah Palin as a potent political force, and the campaign's attacks on Obama for his scuzzy friends, are combining to tighten things up in the final four weeks of the campaign. It seems that McCain's best bet at this point is to attack the premise of Barack as a candidate since voters are now favoring Democrats in general.

The Democrats have pulled ahead of the GOP on national security, an issue John McCain’s party usually holds the advantage on. The Democrats now have a three-point edge on the issue, which is considered very important by 64% of voters.

Another issue that has shifted to the Democrats this month, taxes, is considered a very important issue to 57% of voters. The Democrats now hold a 47% to 42% edge on this issue.

While voters are in the mood to oust the GOP, they need to accept Barack as a legitimate option before they can vote for him. Which means we will likely hear a great deal more about Bill Ayers, Reverends Wright and Pfleger, and the rest of the Obamafia as things wind toward November 4.

The parties are closest on the issue of immigration, with the Democrats holding a modest 40% to 38% edge. Though immigration was a hot topic early in the election, just 41% of voters now consider it to be a very important electoral issue. That is the lowest percentage found since regular tracking began in August of last year.

When it comes to the War in Iraq, voters trust the Democrats more by a 47% to 42% margin. Last month, it was the GOP who held a four percentage point lead on this issue, which is very important to 55% of Likely Voters.

The Democrats hold double-digit leads on government ethics and corruption, healthcare, social security and education. They also hold a nine-point advantage on the issue of abortion.

It will be interesting to see if the trend toward McCain is confirmed when Gallup releases its latest numbers this afternoon. Yesterday the pollster had Obama ahead by 9%.

Dan Rather's Osama Moment

Are you ready for a laugh? Watch the rest of the panel sit frozen as Dan Rather confuses Barack with the world's most famous terrorist. No one helps!

Barack's Support Continues to Slip

There are more negative signs for Barack in the latest numbers.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 42% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%.

The one point lead for Barack is an improvement - it was tied yesterday. But,

That’s the lowest level of support measured for Obama since he clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination on June 3. Obama’s support peaked at 48% with data released on June 8, 9, and 10. During that same time frame, McCain’s support has remained steady in the 40% to 42% range (he’s had just one day a point below that range and two days a point above it).

Is this all Barack will be able to muster - a glass ceiling?

When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 46% and McCain 45%. With leaners, Obama reached 50% support in mid-June and was at 48% or 49% every day from June 13 until July 10. Since then, he has reached the 48% level just once while polling consistently at 46% or 47% (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

So, Barack's downward trend continues - his campaign remains essentially stalled since Reverend Wright first appeared in mid-March. I continue to believe that the media is failing to see, or report, a huge structural problem for Barack. It just may be that he can't do any better than this - that he is unacceptable to most Americans. His drops have taken place while McCain has remained flat, with a campaign that has yet to find its footing. What happens when it does?

Despite the illusion created in the media, voters like McCain better. This holds true amongst what we're told is the key battleground group, independent voters.

McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of voters, Obama by 53%. McCain is currently supported by 86% of Republicans and holds a modest--four percentage point—lead among unaffiliated voters. Obama earns the vote from 77% of Democrats (see other recent demographic highlights).