Barack's Oil Desperation

Is Barack soft? Here's his reason why drilling for oil - a national security imperative to people who are paying attention to reality - is unnecessary.

"There are things that you can do individually though to save energy," Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, said. "Making sure your tires are properly inflated, simple thing, but we could save all the oil that they're talking about getting off drilling, if everybody was just inflating their tires and getting regular tune-ups. You could actually save just as much."

Jake Tapper at ABC, and others, provide calculations to demonstrate why Barack's assertion is incorrect, but the real point is that it's not an either/or situation. Everyone should take care of their cars to maximize efficiency, but we must face up to urgent need to get off of foreign oil, and all reasonable measures should be pursued to achieve that end.

Race Card

McCain has nailed Obama, thankfully, for playing the race card - again.

The negative twist in the campaign for the November 4 election was prompted by a McCain television advertisement on Wednesday that called Obama a celebrity akin to star-crossed U.S. personalities Britney Spears and Paris Hilton.

In response, Obama said McCain was trying to scare voters away from him by pointing out he had "a funny name, and he doesn't look like all the presidents on the dollar bills and the five dollar bills."

There was nothing in the ad that did anything of the sort - it simply questioned whether the man with no experience is prepared for the job of the Presidency.

"Barack Obama has played the race card, and he played it from the bottom of the deck. It's divisive, negative, shameful and wrong," McCain campaign manager Rick Davis said in a written statement.

Mostly, it's just manipulative.

McCain agreed with Davis, telling reporters he was "very disappointed" that Obama had used the race card.

"Race will not have any role in my campaign, nor is there any place for it. I'm disappointed that he's used it."

Thank you, McCain, for getting tough.

Ludacris Obama

Last night on O'Reilly, Dick Morris was asked to cite the two biggest mistakes that each candidate has made. Number 1 for Barack was, in Morris' opinion, not instantly cutting ties with his preacher when the Jeremiah Wright situation first broke out in March. Is he making the same mistake now with vulgar rapper Ludacris, who Barack seems unable to mention without complimenting?

CHICAGO (AP) — Barack Obama's presidential campaign says a new rhyme by supporter and rapper Ludacris is "outrageously offensive" to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Republican Sen. John McCain and President Bush.

The song brags about an Obama presidency being destiny. It uses an expletive to describe Clinton, calls Bush "mentally handicapped" and says McCain doesn't belong in "any chair unless he's paralyzed."

Why wouldn't he say that Ludacris is disgusting and nobody should buy, or play, his music? Does Barack feel Reverend Wright levels of loyalty to Ludacris?

The senator, contemplating a run for president, met privately with Ludacris on Wednesday. “We talked about empowering the youth,” said the rapper, whose real name is Chris Bridges.

Does this represent some sort of personality deficiency on the part of Obama, or is he fearful of losing the adamant support of black voters, or of being viewed as less hip?

"As Barack Obama has said many, many times in the past, rap lyrics today too often perpetuate misogyny, materialism, and degrading images that he doesn't want his daughters or any children exposed to," campaign spokesman Bill Burton said in an e-mail statement Wednesday.

Doesn't any and every responsible leader have a duty to condemn someone who disseminates this sort of garbage? Notice that they condemn the language, but are careful not to condemn the 'artist.'

"This song is not only outrageously offensive to Sen. Clinton, Rev. Jackson, Sen. McCain and President Bush, it is offensive to all of us who are trying to raise our children with the values we hold dear. "

So why the compliments from Barack's campaign?

"While Ludacris is a talented individual he should be ashamed of these lyrics."

Ouch!

So much for Berlin! Rasmussen's Daily Tracking Poll remains at a 2% Obama lead, but Gallup, which had Barack up by 8 points over the weekend, now shows him with just a one point lead.

The race for the presidency has moved back into a statistical tie in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update of national registered voters, with Barack Obama now ahead of John McCain by just one percentage point, 45% to 44%.

What was the effect, then, of Barack's World Tour?

"Did Obama's trip help his standing with the public on foreign policy issues? Not really," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Obama has not picked up any ground against McCain on foreign issues, and some 52 percent think McCain would do a better job than Obama on the war in Iraq, virtually the same number who felt that way in April." Watch Obama's speech in Berlin »

Are Americans ready to embrace Barack as Commander in Chief?

The poll also shows McCain with an edge on terrorism, Iran, Afghanistan and the Middle East. Every foreign policy and national security issue tested tilts toward McCain: terrorism, Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East, Iran and immigration.

Tighter Still

Barack had a short-lived bump, with a Gallup poll of registered voters showing him with a 9 point lead a few days ago. Now it's down to four, with Rasmussen at 2%.

Take a look at this ominous stat:

In the race for the White House, there are nearly twice as many uncommitted voters as there were four years ago in late July (see other recent demographic highlights). While much has been made of John McCain’s struggles with his party’s conservative base, 33% of the uncommitted voters are Democrats while only 19% are Republicans.

Registered Democrats are unsure about Barack.

Barack = Paris

A new McCain ad calls Obama the biggest celebrity in the world - like Paris Hilton or Britney Spears.

Wow - Reparations

Making himself more unelectable all the time, Barack now apparently likes the idea of reparations.

"I consistently believe that when it comes to whether it's Native Americans or African-American issues or reparations, the most important thing for the U.S. government to do is not just offer words, but offer deeds."

That's what he said this past weekend at the Unity Conference.

His answers showed a sensitivity to minority causes, but he also moved quickly to rhetoric that rose above their specificity. He is more concerned about "delivering a better life" to native Americans than a government apology, for example. Likewise, the best reparations for descendents of slaves would be the opportunity for a decent job and quality education.

These answers tend toward a tide-that-lifts-all-boats strategy – ideas that could just as easily have been uttered by Bill Clinton as Obama.

There is specific reason for concern.

Prior to his election to the U.S. Senate in 2004 Obama opposed reparations for slavery. After his election, Obama subtly changed his view, stating he was against "just signing over checks to African-Americans," leaving open the possibility of other forms of reparations would be acceptable to him (Chicago Tribune 11/14/2004).

RNC Mockvertisment

What did we ever do before YouTube? The RNC creates a mock ad on Barack's trip to Berlin.

Barack Uses the Shield

Barack employs "The Shield" in a new TV commercial defending himself against McCain attacks. It's a high road tactic that softly accuses, with disappointment, the opponent of using the low-road. It gives a Barack a chance to resurrect the "old politics" accusation. Running against McCain, Barack likes to be saying the word "old" as often as possible.

Bad News for Barack

For those who question what Barack stands for, one need look no further than his esteemed collection of supporters. Let's add a new one to the list, which already includes:

Al Gore, Jimmy Carter, Fidel Castro, Robert Reich, Ted Kennedy, Tom Hanks, NARAL, John Edwards, Jane Fonda, The Teamsters and Steel Workers unions, Moveon.org, John Kerry, Michael Moore, Oprah Winfrey, George Clooney, Reggae Singer Cocoa Tea, and Hamas political adviser Ahmed Yousef, just to name a few.

Now, we can happily announce the addition of Phil Spector - the poster boy for celebrity mental illness.

Today The Times' eagle-eyed Harriet Ryan spotted Phil Spector, the famous rock entrepreneur and infamous date, showing up for a court hearing in Los Angeles wearing a very obvious "Barack Obama Rocks" pin.

Gallup Sinking - The Toothless Bump

The Gallup poll, a bit more volatile since it polls registered voters rather than testing for those who are likely to vote, took a big jump two days ago in response to Barack's big media week. But now it joins Rasmussen in sinking.

Barack Obama's lead over John McCain, having reached a nine percentage point margin a few days ago, has been reduced for the second Gallup report in a row, and is now at a 6-point, 47% to 41%, margin among registered voters in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted July 26-28.

Some are confused as to why the Gallup Daily Tracker is showing a lead for Barack when the poll it did with USA Today shows a McCain lead of 4%.

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.

The answer is that the poll for USA Today polled likely voters, as does Rasmussen, which shows the race with a one point lead for Barack, bringing the Real Clear Politics average to a spread of just 2.5%.

Why is the trip not panning out to be a boost? Back to the USA Today poll.

In the first in-depth look at public perceptions of the Democrat's trip to Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East and Europe, the survey organization said 35 percent of respondents had a positive opinion of last week's tour.

But 26 percent had a negative opinion and 39 percent said they did not know enough about the trip to be able to say, despite blanket coverage including overseas interviews with Obama by all the main television networks.

Gallup said its findings suggested that vitriolic attacks on Obama by Republican contender John McCain, including about the Democrat's failure to visit wounded US troops in Germany, may have had an impact.

"The heavy coverage of the trip may have fueled speculation -- or reinforced pre-existing attitudes -- about news media bias in Obama's favor," Gallup added in its poll, conducted with USA Today.

The number of respondents who saw press coverage of Obama as unfairly positive was 39 percent. A total of 32 percent said coverage of McCain was unfairly negative.

"The media's coverage of Obama's foreign trip, coupled with a strong reaction from McCain and other conservatives, may have created the seemingly paradoxical effect of increasing Republicans' energy and excitement about voting for McCain," Gallup said.

"If this is the case, the degree to which this is short-term versus long-term is still not clear."

Obama's favorable rating dropped from 64 percent last month to 61 percent in the new poll. McCain's had increased from 59 percent to 62.

The Faux Bump

Just because Barack's overseas trip doesn't appear to have improved his lot significantly doesn't mean that it wasn't beneficial. Longterm, it will likely contribute to an improvement in voters' perceptions of his Gravitas. But the bump was a short one - with Rasmussen showing a one point race.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that Barack Obama’s Berlin bounce is gone. Obama now attracts 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46%. Compared to a week ago, Obama has gained a single percentage point (see recent daily results).

More important than the trip, however, is what it reveals - that there is strong voter resistance to the notion of Barack. A glass ceiling - an wall that can't be seen, but stops his movement cold. It's been like this since mid-March, and the appearance of Jeremiah Wright.

However, the week’s polling showed a roller-coaster of opinion surrounding Obama’s big speech. The event in Berlin was well-covered and initial reviews on the speech were positive. Polling on Thursday and Friday nights was very strong for the Democrat, leading to a six-point advantage in our Saturday morning release. However, polling for the past three days shows no trace of a bounce. The data looks very similar to results from the period preceding the speech and, with fourteen weeks to go, the race for the White House is a toss-up.

McCain is more popular amongst his party members than is Barack with Democrats, and McCain is just as popular with independents.

Obama earns the vote from 78% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.

While Democrats will automatically assume that racism provides Barack his barrier, the polls indicate that Barack does better with white voters than George W. did in either 2000 or 2004.

McCain leads 50% to 44% among White voters and 51% to 43% among men. Obama leads 51% to 42% among women and 92% to 5% among African-Americans (see other recent demographic highlights).

As I posted earlier - "It's entirely unlikely that an unknown quantity like Barack, with no leadership experience and a checkered collection of allies - including links to anti-American radicalism - two Muslim fathers, a Muslim sounding name and a groundbreaking racial configuration can capture the hearts of America, even given the huge structural advantage that any Democrat enjoys today."

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 54%.

Barack's Best Chance

Barack is unelectable - except for one thing. As noted previously on this page, he's good at being lucky.

Presumed Republican presidential nominee John McCain, who has a history of dangerous melanomas, had a spot of skin removed from his face today, his campaign said.

It's entirely unlikely that an unknown quantity like Barack, with no leadership experience and a checkered collection of allies - including links to anti-American radicalism - two Muslim fathers, a Muslim sounding name and a groundbreaking racial configuration can capture the hearts of America, even given the huge structural advantage that any Democrat enjoys today.

The patch of skin was removed from McCain's right cheek during a routine checkup in Arizona, the candidate said. In 2000, an invasive melanoma was removed from the senator's left temple.

Which presents Barack with his best chance to win - a catastrophic event that torpedoes the viability of the McCain campaign. Like a diagnosis of cancer.

McCain denied there were any serious problems when he discussed the procedure at a campaign stop in Bakersfield.

Which would be just the sort of luck that's gotten Barack this far.

Short Bounce

Barack's bounce appears to be fading already. Yesterday, he had a 5 point lead from Rasmussen and a 9 point lead from Gallup, but today offers a different picture.

Gallup has dropped, but just one point, to an 8% lead for Barack. But Rasmussen goes back to 3% for Obama.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that Barack Obama’s Berlin bounce is fading. Obama now attracts 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48% and McCain 45%. Both Obama and McCain are viewed favorably by 56% of voters.

But here's the most remarkable news. Another Gallup poll, done for USA Today, shows McCain in the lead!!!

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.

That's a 10 point swing in just a month - and, these numbers were collected Friday thru Sunday, when Barack was at the peak of his Overseas Buzz. Which puts Barack into very tight territory in the Real Clear Politics average of current polls.

With today's Rasmussen and Gallup tracking both ticking down for Obama (-2 and -1, respectively) and a new Dem Corps poll showing Obama up five, the new RCP National Average has Obama's lead over McCain dipping to 3.2%.

And Isn't It Ironic?

Is it by design, or just dumb luck, that Barack seems to have things going his way on the war in Iraq? Walter Russell Mead writes in the LA Times about a situation loaded with ironies.

The net result, ironically, is that the antiwar candidate who predicted failure is benefiting most from the war's success.

It's such an incredible accomplishment that it's hard to imagine orchestrating such a thing.

Thanks to the surge he opposed, the policy Obama championed -- a relatively swift and steady withdrawal of U.S. combat forces over 16 months, conditions permitting -- no longer looks dangerous, irresponsible or an invitation to defeat.

The clever part of Barack's strategy is providing himself cover for being an Iraq peace-nik by acting like a hawk on Afghanistan. The wacko wing of the Democratic party is happy because he's anti-war on Iraq, and while being a hawk on Afghanistan, he gets to repeat the party line that that's where we should have been focused all along. Brilliant!

But, ironically, Obama is using his new maneuvering room to toughen his stand rather than soften it. In Afghanistan and possibly Pakistan, he wants to send in more troops, take a harder line with Islamabad and crush the elusive Taliban beneath his heel.

I've always felt that being lucky is a talent, and it's one that Barack seems to have in spades.

Obama's pilgrimage abroad points to a larger truth: In the midst of a bitter political year, a loose bipartisan consensus on the Mideast may be emerging. And, irony of ironies, the consensus, seemingly embraced by Obama, seems closer to Bush's views than to those of the antiwar activists who propelled the Illinois senator to the nomination.

McCain Gets it Across

Did you happen to see McCain with Stephanopolous yesterday. He was forceful and likable, and George couldn't figure out how to pin him down. A wonderful performance.

Character Attack

Is McCain being fair?

"It seems to me that Obama would rather lose a war in order to win a political campaign," McCain said Tuesday in New Hampshire, in a line he’s been using regularly since.

That statement represents shorthand for an angle that is entirely accurate - attacking Barack's character for having contrived positions on the war to please liberal Democrats in order to outflank Hillary.

A former naval aviator and prisoner of war in Vietnam, McCain is pressing his case against a candidate with no military experience, and who—thanks in part to a subterranean smear campaign that’s tapped a nerve with some voters who because of it or even prior to it—don’t see him as entirely or all American.

Doubts about Barack - his background, his judgment, his patriotism - underpin his problems with mainstream voters. It is wise, and fair, for McCain to go for the jugular.

It’s a tempting line of attack, though, against Obama, who a recent poll found that 55 percent of voters thought was the “riskier” choice for president as against 35 percent who said McCain. It’s also an attack that tap into a major source of that unease, race, and is especially likely to pay dividends with a relative newcomer to the national stage such as Obama, whose public image is not yet as clearly defined.

Giving vague speeches like the one offered on the streets of Berlin only serves to fuel questions about who Barack is and what he truly believes.

"I'm not questioning his patriotism," McCain said on ABC's This Week with George Stephanopolous. "I am saying that he made the decision [to oppose the surge], which was political, in order to help him get the nomination of his party.

Which is, of course, an attack on his patriotism. And one that is deserved.

Landstuhl Has Legs

John McCain is running an ad that goes after Barack for not visiting injured American troops in Germany.

During his trip to Germany, Obama was scheduled to visit the American hospitals at Ramstein and Landstuhl, but cancelled the trips after being told by Pentagon officials that he could only visit in his official capacity as a senator, not as a candidate.

The cancellation of the visit is the sort of decision that threatens to undo the positive image presented to U.S. military personnel from the photo-ops of Barack with troops from Afghanistan last week. Why did it happen?

I was going to be accompanied by one of my advisors (Major General Jonathan Gration), a former military officer." Continued Obama, "And we got notice that he would be treated as a campaign person, and it would therefore be perceived as political because he had endorsed my candidacy but he wasn’t on the Senate staff. That triggered then a concern that maybe our visit was going to be perceived as political.

Barack Defends Surge Position to Brokaw

Barack defends his surge position to Brokaw on Meet the Press Sunday.

Gallup Uptick Continues

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama now leads John McCain among national registered voters by a 49% to 40% margin in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted July 24-26.

Barack's bounce appears to still be on the upswing, at least among registered voters tallied by Gallup. Rasmussen still has the race at 5 points. Either way, Barack has regained the position he had in early July, which had been fading of late.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama attracts 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 44%. McCain’s numbers are up a point from yesterday while Obama’s remain unchanged. Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 55%.

The contrast between the polls is worth noting. The Gallup bounce is bigger, presumably because voters who are less likely to vote are included. Rasmussen tests for a respondent's likelihood of voting, which buffers the impact because those likely to vote are, we assume, better informed.

These numbers could be the start of a longterm trend in Barack's favor, or perhaps they'll start moving downward this week. That remains to be seen. But the power of having a purposeful campaign, something that John McCain still lacks, is well displayed by this movement.

Polls - Barack Bump

Gallup shows Barack up 7%, and Rasmussen up 5.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Barack Obama attracts 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 44%. McCain’s numbers are up a point from yesterday while Obama’s remain unchanged. Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 55%.

McCain Outfoxed on War?

Did Barack kidnap the upper hand on Iraq from McCain this week? By shifting the focus to Afghanistan, and talking about escalating the war there while satisfying his base by talking about withdrawing from Iraq, Barack may have pulled off an incredible bait and switch, becoming the anti-war candidate who wants war!

Obama officials also say the push from Iraqi politicians for troop withdrawal schedules roughly in line with his (with the exception of Sunni chieftains who still fret about a rapid US exit). The language of “aspiration time horizons” agreed upon by Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki and the Bush White House also gave Obama a glide-path in Iraq on the question of troop movements and nothing on they trip, they believe undercut that opening advantage.

The foundation of Barack's trick, is, or course, the success of the surge, which Barack opposed. But McCain even found a way to muddle that point.

On July 23, McCain said the surge wasn’t really about more troops, but counter-insurgency tactics. And yet the political credit McCain seeks for the turn-around in Iraq is based principally on his advocacy if the surge - meaning more troops to carry out counter-insurgency missions. To say the surge wasn’t really about more troops undercuts much of McCain has tried to tell the public about what has changed in Iraq and why.

This is true, of course. What is known as the surge is a collection of tactical changes that have led to a dramatic success - but some argue that the least important of these was adding more troops to the mix. But why would McCain seek to cloud the issue he's worked so hard to highlight, making it possible for the left to argue this:

If you define “the surge” as broadly as he does here, you can no longer claim that Barack Obama opposed it. Obama, of course, has never been opposed to the use of more effective counter-insurgency tactics in Iraq. Indeed, from the moment Obama arrived in the Senate in 2004, he criticized the Bush administration for failing to appreciate that it was dealing with an insurgency and adopting appropriate counter-insurgency techniques. For example, in this 2005 speech Obama argued that we need to “focus our efforts on a more effective counter-insurgency strategy and take steam out of the insurgency.”

Health Plan Flip on Illegals?

Barack's proposal for health insurance has always mentioned offering a plan for 47 million Americans. From his website:

Millions of Americans are uninsured or underinsured because of rising medical costs: 47 million Americans — including nearly 9 million children — lack health insurance with no signs of this trend slowing down.

And he says he has a plan for the uninsured.

Obama's Plan to Cover Uninsured Americans: Obama will make available a new national health plan to all Americans, including the self-employed and small businesses, to buy affordable health coverage that is similar to the plan available to members of Congress.

Thus, it is reasonable to assume, as most have, that his plan would not discriminate against those in the country illegally, since the 47 million number includes illegals.

There are an estimated 47 million persons on the U.S. without health insurance. Illegal immigrants and their U.S.-born children make up 8.3 million of that uninsured number, according to the Center for Immigration Studies.

So what's going on?

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's campaign Friday said his universal health plans do not extend to undocumented immigrants.

Here's the Bump

Barack seems to have gotten a bump from the trip. The Rasmussen poll, which showed him up 3% yesterday, now shows Obama with a 5 point lead.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows a bounce for Barack Obama. The presumptive Democratic nominee attracts 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 44%. Just three days ago, the candidates were tied at 46% (with leaners).

Barack had been running below his normal range over the past couple of weeks, but today's number are more in line with the race was until the beginning of July.

This is the first time that Obama has enjoyed a five point advantage since July 8. It’s also the first time he has reached the 49% level of support since that date. In June, Obama’s support stayed within a point of the 49% level virtually every day and the Democrat typically led by about five percentage points.

Does this represent a permanent change in the race, or just a natural response to the media focus which will fade with time?

The race has been closer over the past couple of weeks (see recent daily results). As with any bounce in the polls, it will take a few days to determine whether it reflects a lasting change in the race or is merely statistical noise.

British Paper Mocks "The One"

Barack is mocked in a British newspaper in a delightfully over the top manner that, I believe, carries some truth. There is a danger, isn't there, that the candidate walks a fine line between appearing ready for power and possessing some distorted sense of destiny about himself. If he overplays his hand, he just comes across as high on himself. Consider the high impact of his race speech compared to his poverty speech. The second speech served to pull the curtains back a bit on the first.

And it came to pass, in the eighth year of the reign of the evil Bush the Younger (The Ignorant), when the whole land from the Arabian desert to the shores of the Great Lakes had been laid barren, that a Child appeared in the wilderness.

The Child was blessed in looks and intellect. Scion of a simple family, offspring of a miraculous union, grandson of a typical white person and an African peasant. And yea, as he grew, the Child walked in the path of righteousness, with only the occasional detour into the odd weed and a little blow.

Media Backfire

Barack's speech certainly made him center stage yesterday - and there's no question that shots of him meeting comfortably with world leaders may allay the fears somewhat of the majority of Americans who question his readiness for the presidency - but media attempts to compensate for its excitement over Barack with balanced reporting may ruin the opportunity for this week's tour to provide the jump start the Obama campaign so sorely needs.

Last night's World News, for example, spent the first 7 minutes on Barack. In the setup, Charlie Gibson mentioned that many see Barack's tour and speech as presumptuous. Then Jake Tapper started his report by mentioning that you don't usually see presidential candidates taking their campaigns to Germany. McCain also received decent coverage.

This morning, Barack momentous moment went without mention during the start of Good Morning America. They focused the news heavy portion of the program on stories such as the airliner that popped a hole yesterday, the possible tornadoes in New Hampshire, and a follow-up on the woman who didn't seem concerned when her young daughter was missing for a month.

While the Today Show considered Barack to be news, it also provided good coverage of McCain's compensatory trips to American towns with European names. Ultimately, the scheduled appearance of Miley Cirus in Rockefeller Plaza generated more heat than Barack.

How eager is Barack for something to change the movement in this campaign? Consider the latest polls from four states, taken partially during this week's trip, that confirm the tightening race seen in national polls.

July 24, 2008 - McCain Closes In On Obama In Four Battleground States, Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/ Washingtonpost.Com Poll Finds

What little air Barack had in his sales 6 weeks after disposing of Hillary is almost gone. It's up to the Berlin speech to provide some lift, and the signs don't seem to be there that any major winds have been generated. Except in New Hampshire.

Barack Weaker?

Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls, each with three days of data ending Wednesday, show no bump for Barack, but, instead, a tightening of the race over the week of Barack's trip. A Fox News poll, taken Tuesday and Wednesday, shows the race in a virtual tie. The slim Obama leads look like this:

Rasmussen - 3%
Gallup - 2%
Fox - 1%

Gallup had Barack up 6% earlier in the week. Rasmussen had the race tied on Tuesday.

Voters aren't as convinced about Barack as they were about John Kerry four years ago, throwing into question his status as the Divine.

One big difference today is that fewer voters are committed to a candidate at this point in the 2008 cycle. In Election 2004, 92% had decided to vote for either Bush or Kerry (97% with leaners). That left only 8% of voters who were still persuadable and most of those were leaning one day or another. This year, 86% say they’ll vote for either Obama or McCain. That leaves 14% who are persuadable, most of whom are not leaning towards either candidate.

Maybe Germany will start to move things for Barack, but right now his weakness continues.

Four years ago today, John Kerry enjoyed a two-point lead (Rasmussen) over George W. Bush (three points with leaners). That was down slightly from the day before when the Massachusetts Senator reached the high-water mark for his campaign heading into the 2004 Democratic National Convention. Kerry didn’t get a bounce from that Convention but was able to hang on to a very small lead until late-August (see Election 2004 daily tracking summary).

Barack Under Pressure

Charlie Gibson flustered Barack in an interview that aired on last night's World News. Impressive work from Gibson, who simply asked appropriate follow-ups, something few have the brainpower or the tenacity to do. By comparison, watch Katie's weak attempt to pursue Barack a day earlier.

Anyway, it's informative to see Barack's reactions when Charlie doesn't want to let him rewrite his prior statement on an undivided Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

Barack Speaks

Read Barack's speech here.

“In Europe, the view that America is part of what has gone wrong in our
world, rather than a force to help us make it right, has become all too
common,”
he said. “Yes, there have been differences between America and
Europe. “No
doubt, there will be differences in the future.

But the burdens of global citizenship continue to bind us together,” Obama
continued. “A change of leadership in Washington will not lift this burden. In
this new century,
Americans and Europeans alike will be required to do more,
not less.”

Invoking the fall of the Berlin Wall after the historic call by President
Ronald Reagan at the nearby Brandenburg Gate, Obama declared that the greatest
danger now “is to allow new walls to divide us from one another.”

Barack Skips Visit with Injured Troops

An ironic juxtaposition of posts.

We learn via Der Spiegel, blogging on Barack's speech, that:

++ Obama Says He Loves America ++

Who knew?

Coincidentally, or perhaps contradictorily, we learn from Ed Morrissey at Hot Air (via Pundit Review), that Der Spiegel is reporting that Barack, running tight on time in Germany, canceled his Friday visit with injured American soldiers.

++ Visit to US Military Bases Cancelled ++

1:42 p.m.: SPIEGEL ONLINE has learned that Obama has cancelled a planned short visit to the Rammstein and Landstuhl US military bases in the southwest German state of Rhineland-Palatinate. The visits were planned for Friday. "Barack Obama will not be coming to us," a spokesperson for the US military hospital in Landstuhl announced. "I don't know why." Shortly before the same spokeswoman had announced a planned visit by Obama.

Barack did, however, have time to pop over to the Ritz Carlton for a workout last night according to reports from Berlin.

Lowering Expectations

Before he gave his speech in Berlin today, Barack chatted with the media, and tried to lower expectations.

Wright Poll Numbers

Readers of this blog have been hearing for some time that this election is not about John McCain - the race is Barack's to win or lose. That's due to the fact that the fundamentals of the election year so favor a Democrat. People want change - the question is, does Barack represent the change they want. Change can be scary.

Americans are also spending more time fixated on what an Obama administration would look like—a majority, 51%, said they focus more on what kind of president the Democratic senator from Illinois would be compared with 27% who said they focused on what kind of president McCain would be.

If the campaign is about Barack, why isn't he doing better? People want change - the question is, does Barack represent the change they want. Change can be scary. A new poll from NBC/Wall Street Journal clarifies the fear that Barack may not live up to his slogan - Change You Can Believe In.

...the Arizona Republican senator has an 11-percentage-point advantage over Obama when voters were asked which candidate’s background and set of values they identify with more—58% said that candidate was McCain, while 47% said Obama. In contrast, 34% said McCain does not represent their values, while 43% said Obama does not.

Who do voters feel comfortable with?

McCain also came out ahead, 46%-41%, when voters were asked who would be the “safer choice” for president.

These humps for Barack are Jerermiah Wright humps. They'll become more problematic in the fall when the Obamafia becomes better known.

Dick Knows

You wouldn't guess it from the hype, but McCain actually would be the guy who would end the war quicker and with the fewest casualties. Dick Morris spells it out.

It's literally true that if McCain is elected, there will be fewer US deaths in Iraq than there will be if Obama prevails. By pulling out only when it's safe to do so, McCain would finish the job and allow a peaceful transition to a stable democratic government. If we pull out too fast - and then have to go back in - the casualties will be many times those we now face.

McCain's challenge is to cut through the emotion of anti-war angst, fueled by 'wrong direction' anxiety. And to redefine the discussion about Iraq away from the past and what to do next.

The Republican needs to shift the debate to Iraq's future. Neither Obama's belaboring of his previous opposition to the war nor McCain's attacking the Democrat's opposition to the surge is relevant - both lines are history lessons best left in the classroom. What voters want to know is: What now?

How does McCain answer their question?

McCain needs to hammer at one basic theme: that Obama's pullout plan will lead to a third Iraq war. The Democrat wants to keep substantial numbers of troops next door, to go back into Iraq if necessary. McCain should stress that a premature withdrawal will lead to a collapse - losing the hard-won stability in Iraq, opening the door to an Iranian takeover and al Qaeda revival, and potentially forcing a new US invasion.

Obama isn't a peace candidate, McCain can say - just an advocate of a deferred war. Just as the first President George Bush left the ingredients in place for a second war when he failed to depose Saddam Hussein in 1991, so Obama will fail to finish the job and invite yet another war if he abandons Iraq before our gains have been consolidated.

McCain can fire his consultants and just read Morris' columns. It's that simple to put Barack on the defensive.

Where's the Bump

I'm convinced that the more voters get to know Barack, the less inclined they'll be to support him. This seems to be the case with his overseas tour. Despite four days of dominating news coverage even more than he usually does, the portrayal of Barack as a statesman is hurting his image as a leader of international affairs. A few days ago, 41% of likely voters felt Barack lacked the experience to be president.

While Obama has been on an overseas tour, 45% of voters say the Democratic hopeful is too inexperienced to be President. That’s up four percentage points from a week ago.

That according to the Rasmussen poll, which also shows that McCain is favored on national security, 48%-41%.

How much has Barack's tour helped him in overall support? The latest Gallup poll of registered voters shows Barack's lead dropping from 6% to 4%. In the new Rasmussen poll, he's jumped to a two point lead, up from 1%.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 45% (see recent daily results). McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, Obama by 54%. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

Will Barack's big speech in front of thousands of screaming German fans this week help, or hurt? We'll see.

The big news from Gallup Poll Daily tracking is the continuing stability of this race. Many observers (and based on its reaction, the McCain campaign itself) have hypothesized that Obama could have the chance of making a major breakthrough in voter sentiment as a result of the streaming video and photos and news coverage of the Illinois senator with U.S. troops, military commanders, and foreign leaders. As of Tuesday night's interviewing, however, this has not materialized.

Equal Time

ABC News sends a signal.

In today's email blast promoting World News for tonight, they mention the Republican nominee. Oh, how they love to mock Fox News for using the phrase Fair and Balanced!

World News in the Middle East:
Senator Barack Obama continues his tour through the Middle East, meeting today with Israeli and Palestinian presidents Ehud Olmert and Mahmoud Abbas. ABC's Charles Gibson sat down with the presidential hopeful in Jerusalem for an in-depth conversation on the Middle East peace process and Iran's nuclear ambitions. We'll also have an interview with Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee.

Dan Rather's Osama Moment

Are you ready for a laugh? Watch the rest of the panel sit frozen as Dan Rather confuses Barack with the world's most famous terrorist. No one helps!

McCain Strikes Back

McCain is using humor to highlight the media obsession with the candidate McCain's people refer to as "The One." Now, there are two videos up on his website mocking the obsession, with the opportunity to vote for which 60's love song best exemplifies the media's condition.


Nice job.

See them here.

Fake Interviews?

More mainstream media reaction to world scrutiny over its love affair with Obama, as Andrea Mitchell complains about "fake interviews":

Mainstream Guilt

The networks appear to have been embarrassed into making sure that they give McCain a fair shot at some coverage in the midst of their Obama-fest in the Middle East - so much so, that McCain ended up getting the best of things on CBS. First, Katie was aggressive in challenging Barack on his claim that the surge was a mistake. His only recourse was to bob and weave, without making much sense.



Did you notice how Obama kept crediting the troops for making things better in Iraq, but not the surge itself?

Then, McCain got a chance, in a satellite interview with Katie in the Middle East and him in New Hampshire, to tear into Barack for his willingness to sell out the war in order to win the election.

Barack did a little better on ABC, where for the second night in a row, they seemed delighted to report about McCain from the perspective of his attempts to break through the media's love affair with Barack. Gibson gets his interview with Barack on Thursday.

The email promo for the ABC newscast left McCain out of the equation:

This evening ABC's Charles Gibson reports from Israel as presidential hopeful Barack Obama continues his tour through the Middle East. World News will broadcast live from Jerusalem tonight.

No mention of the Republican candidate.

How Long?

Let's face it, Barack has an ego problem. That's always been the case, I think, but the innocent charm seems to have given way to arrogant impatience now that he's within reach of the altitudes he believes he is destined for. He can't stand being close, and being questioned. He wants the prize.

This exchange with Katie Couric leads me to ask the question - How long will it be before the media starts rooting against Obama?

Couric: But talking microcosmically, did the surge, the addition of 30,000 additional troops ... help the situation in Iraq?

Obama: Katie, as … you've asked me three different times, and I have said repeatedly that there is no doubt that our troops helped to reduce violence. There's no doubt.

Couric: But yet you're saying … given what you know now, you still wouldn't support it … so I'm just trying to understand this.

Obama: Because … it's pretty straightforward. By us putting $10 billion to $12 billion a month, $200 billion, that's money that could have gone into Afghanistan. Those additional troops could have gone into Afghanistan. That money also could have been used to shore up a declining economic situation in the United States. That money could have been applied to having a serious energy security plan so that we were reducing our demand on oil, which is helping to fund the insurgents in many countries. So those are all factors that would be taken into consideration in my decision-- to deal with a specific tactic or strategy inside of Iraq.

Couric: And I really don't mean to belabor this, Senator, because I'm really, I'm trying … to figure out your position. Do you think the level of security in Iraq …

Obama: Yes.

Couric … would exist today without the surge?

Obama: Katie, I have no idea what would have happened had we applied my approach, which was to put more pressure on the Iraqis to arrive at a political reconciliation. So this is all hypotheticals. What I can say is that there's no doubt that our U.S. troops have contributed to a reduction of violence in Iraq. I said that-- not just today, not just yesterday, but I've said that-- previously. What that doesn't change is that we've got to have a different strategic approach if we're going to make America as safe as possible.

As on might expect, Barack gets particularly impatient being questioned on topics where he doesn't have good answers.

McCain's Game

On ABC News last night, they did their best to be balanced in the coverage of Barack's trip. They did this by mentioning that McCain was struggling to find a way to fight the intense coverage Barack is receiving.

Some say that McCain has found the answer - an early announcement of his VP pick.

The scuttlebutt comes from a piece written by syndicated columnist Robert Novak. The small item, which was also posted on Drudge Report, said the campaign was considering breaking the news to mitigate any excitement around Barack Obama’s trip abroad.

The McCain campaign had its tongue planted in its cheek with the response: “We have no announcements today,” said Brooke Buchanan, a close McCain aide.

Is there some possibility that this is true, or is McCain messing with the press?

The schedule certainly keeps the possibility open for later in the week. McCain will hold a town hall meeting in New Hampshire on Tuesday afternoon—a state he won in both the 2000 and the 2008 primaries. He’s also headed to a trio of high-profile swing states.

If it's a ruse, which it surely must be, it's a well orchestrated one.

And then there’s the news of the private meetings with the names of folks topping the shortlist. Reports surfaced that McCain has met with former rival Rudy Giuliani and will meet later this week with Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal.

The media traveling with McCain has been trying to get an answer, but hasn't had much luck.

To get to the bottom of the buzz, the traveling press corps rushed the plane Monday evening. A group of reporters reached beyond the curtain that divides its seating area from McCain and his campaign.

“Go away!” laughed Mark Salter, a senior aide.

“What do you want you little jerks?” McCain said.

From my point of view, the media coverage of Barack's trip has been rather subdued. It should get worse today, as network anchors start to join The One.

Barack's Support Continues to Slip

There are more negative signs for Barack in the latest numbers.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 42% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%.

The one point lead for Barack is an improvement - it was tied yesterday. But,

That’s the lowest level of support measured for Obama since he clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination on June 3. Obama’s support peaked at 48% with data released on June 8, 9, and 10. During that same time frame, McCain’s support has remained steady in the 40% to 42% range (he’s had just one day a point below that range and two days a point above it).

Is this all Barack will be able to muster - a glass ceiling?

When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 46% and McCain 45%. With leaners, Obama reached 50% support in mid-June and was at 48% or 49% every day from June 13 until July 10. Since then, he has reached the 48% level just once while polling consistently at 46% or 47% (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

So, Barack's downward trend continues - his campaign remains essentially stalled since Reverend Wright first appeared in mid-March. I continue to believe that the media is failing to see, or report, a huge structural problem for Barack. It just may be that he can't do any better than this - that he is unacceptable to most Americans. His drops have taken place while McCain has remained flat, with a campaign that has yet to find its footing. What happens when it does?

Despite the illusion created in the media, voters like McCain better. This holds true amongst what we're told is the key battleground group, independent voters.

McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of voters, Obama by 53%. McCain is currently supported by 86% of Republicans and holds a modest--four percentage point—lead among unaffiliated voters. Obama earns the vote from 77% of Democrats (see other recent demographic highlights).

Don't Expect Change

They get it in Jordan:

For what feels like forever, Israelis and their Arab neighbors have been hopelessly deadlocked on how to resolve the Palestinian crisis. But there is one point they may now agree on: if elected president, Senator Barack Obama will not fundamentally recalibrate America's relationship with Israel, or the Arab world.

"What we know is American presidents all support Israel," said Muhammad Ibrahim, 23, a university student who works part time selling watermelons on the street in the southern part of this city. "It is hopeless. This one is like the other one. They are all the same. Nothing will change. Don't expect change."

McCain's Editorial

Drudge reports that McCain's op-ed submittal, a reaction to Barack's of a week ago, was rejected by the New York Times.

Here it is:

In January 2007, when General David Petraeus took command in Iraq, he called the situation “hard” but not “hopeless.” Today, 18 months later, violence has fallen by up to 80% to the lowest levels in four years, and Sunni and Shiite terrorists are reeling from a string of defeats. The situation now is full of hope, but considerable hard work remains to consolidate our fragile gains.

Progress has been due primarily to an increase in the number of troops and a change in their strategy. I was an early advocate of the surge at a time when it had few supporters in Washington. Senator Barack Obama was an equally vocal opponent. "I am not persuaded that 20,000 additional troops in Iraq is going to solve the sectarian violence there,” he said on January 10, 2007. “In fact, I think it will do the reverse."

Now Senator Obama has been forced to acknowledge that “our troops have performed brilliantly in lowering the level of violence.” But he still denies that any political progress has resulted.

Perhaps he is unaware that the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad has recently certified that, as one news article put it, “Iraq has met all but three of 18 original benchmarks set by Congress last year to measure security, political and economic progress.” Even more heartening has been progress that’s not measured by the benchmarks. More than 90,000 Iraqis, many of them Sunnis who once fought against the government, have signed up as Sons of Iraq to fight against the terrorists. Nor do they measure Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki’s new-found willingness to crack down on Shiite extremists in Basra and Sadr City—actions that have done much to dispel suspicions of sectarianism.

The success of the surge has not changed Senator Obama’s determination to pull out all of our combat troops. All that has changed is his rationale. In a New York Times op-ed and a speech this week, he offered his “plan for Iraq” in advance of his first “fact finding” trip to that country in more than three years. It consisted of the same old proposal to pull all of our troops out within 16 months. In 2007 he wanted to withdraw because he thought the war was lost. If we had taken his advice, it would have been. Now he wants to withdraw because he thinks Iraqis no longer need our assistance.

To make this point, he mangles the evidence. He makes it sound as if Prime Minister Maliki has endorsed the Obama timetable, when all he has said is that he would like a plan for the eventual withdrawal of U.S. troops at some unspecified point in the future.

Senator Obama is also misleading on the Iraqi military's readiness. The Iraqi Army will be equipped and trained by the middle of next year, but this does not, as Senator Obama suggests, mean that they will then be ready to secure their country without a good deal of help. The Iraqi Air Force, for one, still lags behind, and no modern army can operate without air cover. The Iraqis are also still learning how to conduct planning, logistics, command and control, communications, and other complicated functions needed to support frontline troops.

No one favors a permanent U.S. presence, as Senator Obama charges. A partial withdrawal has already occurred with the departure of five “surge” brigades, and more withdrawals can take place as the security situation improves. As we draw down in Iraq, we can beef up our presence on other battlefields, such as Afghanistan, without fear of leaving a failed state behind. I have said that I expect to welcome home most of our troops from Iraq by the end of my first term in office, in 2013.

But I have also said that any draw-downs must be based on a realistic assessment of conditions on the ground, not on an artificial timetable crafted for domestic political reasons. This is the crux of my disagreement with Senator Obama.

Senator Obama has said that he would consult our commanders on the ground and Iraqi leaders, but he did no such thing before releasing his “plan for Iraq.” Perhaps that’s because he doesn’t want to hear what they have to say. During the course of eight visits to Iraq, I have heard many times from our troops what Major General Jeffrey Hammond, commander of coalition forces in Baghdad, recently said: that leaving based on a timetable would be “very dangerous.”

The danger is that extremists supported by Al Qaeda and Iran could stage a comeback, as they have in the past when we’ve had too few troops in Iraq. Senator Obama seems to have learned nothing from recent history. I find it ironic that he is emulating the worst mistake of the Bush administration by waving the “Mission Accomplished” banner prematurely.

I am also dismayed that he never talks about winning the war—only of ending it. But if we don’t win the war, our enemies will. A triumph for the terrorists would be a disaster for us. That is something I will not allow to happen as president. Instead I will continue implementing a proven counterinsurgency strategy not only in Iraq but also in Afghanistan with the goal of creating stable, secure, self-sustaining democratic allies.

Honest Revelations

Whether by the end of this week he will be seen as presumptuous or overly cocky, or ready enough to sit in the Oval Office to satisfy the doubters, is the overriding political question.

Perhaps Barack will take it. Presumptuous or overly cocky isn't so bad - as those reactions are so close to being 'ready.' But what Dan Balz of the Washington Post shares about Newt Gingrich's reaction to Barack's trip is fascinating.

But for Gingrich, who is no less lacking in self confidence than Obama, two questions arise about Obama -- one short-term and the other longer term. First, to Gingrich, one measure of the trip will be the degree to which Obama is willing to acknowledge that what he has seen has changed his thinking.

Who has considered such a result - that Barack could learn something on this trip, and then be honest enough to share it?

In Gingrich's formulation, no one as bright as Obama can spend 10 days overseas and not come away with insights he didn't have when he started. "If he encounters realities different than he expected, is he willing to actually share that with the American people?" Gingrich wondered.

And what if it goes a step further? What if Barack realizes that what he's been saying on the campaign trail has been naive or misguided? What if he comes away with a revelation - and then shares it, honestly, with the American people?

This is not a matter of projecting humility so much as acknowledging the possibility of errors in judgment or the intractability of problems that have eluded resolution for decades. When Obama says "never" about doubts as to his capacity to handle these problems, he projects the same confidence that has carried him through a difficult campaign. But voters may be looking to see what else he reveals about himself and the world during his week abroad.

That would explain why Barack offered his conclusions to his trip in a speech last week - before he'd even left - so that he could come home and share his 'honest' reactions. A coming to God. It's not a likely scenario - this all seems so carefully crafted - but it's fun to consider.

Barack's New Partner

Barack has arrived in Baghdad, with the world still confused over his Iraq plan. Which is just the way he wants it.

As Sen. Barack Obama headed to Iraq for his first visit as a presidential
candidate, his plan for bringing the war to a swift conclusion was
triggering a political furor abroad and at home, with a U.S. military leader
declaring Sunday that setting a hard deadline for withdrawing troops is
risky.

The confusion created by Barack's refinement of his 16 month withdrawal plan leaves some thinking he's abandoned it (correct), and others assuming, or pretending, that he's still committed to systematically withdrawing troops without regard for events on the ground.

One of McCain's foreign policy advisors, Randy Scheunemann, said in a prepared
statement: "Barack Obama says he wants a 'safe and responsible' withdrawal from
Iraq, but is stubbornly adhering to an unconditional withdrawal that places
politics above the advice of our military commanders, the success of our troops,
and the security of the American people."

Barack is getting some help in creating confusion from the Prime Minister of Iraq, who is facing his own electoral challenges that make talking out of both sides of his mouth as appealing as it is for Obama.

Iraq's prime minister, Nouri Maliki, had appeared to approve of Obama's
plan to close out the war. In an interview with a German magazine published
Saturday, Maliki said the 16-month deadline "would be the right time frame
for a withdrawal. . . ."

Then came the refinement.

But on Sunday, a Maliki spokesman said the magazine, Der Spiegel,
had misinterpreted the prime minister's comments.

Sound familiar?

On Media Bias

Since most Democrats have always argued that media bias doesn't exist - that it's a fantasy of the conservative mind, and worse - that it's impossible - it has been a satisfying year for those of us who advance the theory.

It was very exciting when Democrats themselves, in the form of the Clintons, complained about how they were treated in the media compared to Barack. Bill was downright bitter before the New Hampshire primary when explaining, in response to a voter question, whether Hillary would join Barack in calling for a new kinda politics.

"Nobody would be happier to see all this go away than us. But you can’t ask somebody who is at a breathtaking disadvantage in the information coming to the voters to ignore that disadvantage and basically agree to put bullets in their brains," he said.

Saturday Night Live did such a nice job spoofing Hillary's newfound media irrelevance that the media was impacted.


Now, of course, there's the Obama World Tour, dutifully covered by the three networks by sending their anchors along, when McCain's overseas trips have received virtually no coverage.

"If this were John McCain's first trip to the war zone, that would be a story and we would cover it big time," said Paul Friedman, the senior vice president of CBS News.

Okay. That's a point. But don't the networks still have an obligation to maintain some level of balance?

The Tyndall Report, a news coverage monitoring service that has the broadcast networks as clients, reports that three newscasts by the traditional networks — which have a combined audience of more than 20 million people — spent 114 minutes covering Obama since June; they spent 48 minutes covering McCain.

It is, I believe, the combination of two factors that leads to the lopsided Obama coverage. One is the fact that reporters love the guy. But then there's the issue of commerce.

The news industry's fascination with Obama has carried over to general-interest magazines, with the candidate landing on considerably more covers in recent months than has McCain. In the last couple of weeks Obama has graced the front of Rolling Stone and, for the second time now, that of Us Weekly (both of which are owned by the company of a prominent Obama supporter, Jann Wenner).

Covers are responsible for people making spontaneous grabs at magazines.

Beth Jacobson, a spokeswoman for Wenner Media, said they were among the better-selling magazines of the year.

Ned Martel, the deputy editor of Men's Vogue, said, "He's what is called in the magazine world an 'interest driver.' " The magazine put Obama on its cover in 2006 and has recently dispatched the photographer Annie Liebovitz to produce another spread for an upcoming issue. It did do a feature on McCain in 2006 as well; it did not make the cover.

Whatever the reason, the media is failing to do its job properly - in a big way.

This Guy Taught Constitutional Law?

Barack, in an interview aired on Face the Nation, explains how long he plans to serve as President. Geesh - to think people worried about Bill Clinton!

Does His Reflection Fit?

A presidential candidate is supposed to get bigger on the national stage. That doesn't mean his head should, too.

That's how Joan Vennochi, columnist for the Boston Globe, wraps up her attack on the man the McCain campaign internally refers to as, "The One." Here's how she starts it.

JUST LIKE the Obama girl, Obama has a crush on Obama.

Barack Obama always was a larger-than-life candidate with a healthy ego. Now he's turning into the A-Rod of politics. It's all about him.

In between comes a recap of the evidence that Barack's reflection doesn't fit in the mirror. There is, though, one thought I hadn't considered, so I thank Joan for that. It is the notion that McCain is the perfect antidote for the poison of ego - just in case Barack's sense of himself as "historical" starts to grate on voters.

But McCain has one thing going for him: the appearance of modesty.

Part of it is physical. McCain is stiff and awkward, the result of age and injuries from his years as a prisoner of war. That, too, is a contrast to Obama's sleek physique, the consequence of youth and a George W. Bush-like passion for working out.

But with McCain, there's also the sense of a man who made mistakes in life and acknowledges them.

It's a quick read if you're in the mood.

Barack's Slump

The trip to the Middle East is well timed for Barack, who can use the positive media attention that the major networks are eager to provide. The latest polls indicate his campaign is totally stalled, with Rasmussen showing a tie.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 43% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 46% and McCain 46%

Gallup has Barack up by just 2%.

As a result of the intimidation that voters are said to feel when being polled about minority candidates, isn't it safe to assume that Barack is polling better than what's real, and that his race, concerns over his links to Reverend Wright, his inexperience, and his patriotism would combine, were the election to be held today, to lower his tally by several points?

Susan Estrich, who ran the Dukakis campaign 20 years ago, sites the Bradley Effect (voters lying to pollsters) as one possible reason Democrats should be depressed.

...the fact that my old candidate Mike Dukakis was running better 20 years ago against George Bush than Obama is today against John McCain makes me nervous. It should be a sign to some of the whiners on my side, still worried about whether Obama is liberal enough or whether he’s doing enough to help Hillary, that it’s time to stop whining and start working. Otherwise, it will be hello President McCain.

Here's another ominous stat for the Democrat - and it may be where reaction to Obama's "newness" may lie:

Obama leads McCain in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. But when asked whether each candidate can handle the responsibilities of being commander in chief, eight in 10 said McCain could, compared with 55% for Obama.

In a recent Rasmussen tally, 41% were concerned over Obamas lack of experience, substantially more than the 24% worried about McCain's age. These indicators may be linked to the reasons that his campaign has been stalled since the emergence of Jeremiah Wright in mid-March.

Birds of a Feather - Maliki, Obama

It is being reported that the Prime Minister of Iraq has endorsed Barack Obama's 16 month plan for withdrawing U.S. troops. This is amusing for several reasons.

First, Barack abandoned his 16 month plan this week (I can't believe I'm explaining this again.)

Second, Maliki's supposed endorsement consists of this:

“U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months,” Mr. Maliki said, according to the magazine’s online English edition. “That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes.”

John McCain has also talked about target dates for removal of U.S. troops, but that's his expected date for winning and withdrawing, something that's totally different than Barack's old plan of pulling out without regard for realities on the ground.

But it could be that Maliki is being as manipulative on the matter as Barack is. Barack has betrayed those who launched him to the nomination based on his claim of being a peace-nik by 1) abandoning his anti-war stance in Iraq and, 2) compensating for his image of being anti-war in Iraq by being pro-war in Afghanistan.

Maliki has to look tough against the U.S. because he has elections coming in his country, and the success of the surge has Iraqi's thinking it may be time for the U.S. to leave.

Then again, Maliki says he didn't mean what's being reported.

A spokesman for the Iraqi prime minister has issued a statement saying his remarks were “misunderstood and mistranslated,” but did not address a specific error.

Beating the Dead Horse Again

As perhaps I've mentioned before, Barack this week reneged on his primary campaign promise to withdraw our combat troops from Iraq in 16 months. For some reason, the media is refusing to notice. Here are just a couple of examples.

From Time Magazine:

Obama's liberal supporters, on the other hand, have been unsettled by his recent comments suggesting that, as President, he might "refine" his timetable for bringing American forces out of Iraq based on the recommendations he gets from American commanders.
It's already been as refined as white sugar.

The French news service AFP says in a story today:

In a major foreign policy address on Tuesday, Obama reiterated his promise to get most US combat troops out of Iraq within 16 months, and to focus on Al-Qaeda havens in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

No, he muddled the language on that commitment so that no one will ever be able to say he had such a commitment.

Just to recap, here is the position he erased from his website this week:

Obama will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq. He will remove one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months.

Now, his new position, as articulated in his speech Tuesday.

We can safely redeploy our combat brigades at a pace that would remove them in 16 months... After this redeployment, we'll keep a residual force to perform specific missions in Iraq... We will make tactical adjustments as we implement this strategy - that is what any responsible Commander-in-Chief must do.

Notice that he says "we can" withdraw in 16 months. This sentence doesn't even make clear that a 16 month withdrawal is part of Barack's plan - we have to infer this from the later statement, "After this redeployment." And, that redeployment is now contingent on tactical adjustments.