The Faux Bump

Just because Barack's overseas trip doesn't appear to have improved his lot significantly doesn't mean that it wasn't beneficial. Longterm, it will likely contribute to an improvement in voters' perceptions of his Gravitas. But the bump was a short one - with Rasmussen showing a one point race.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that Barack Obama’s Berlin bounce is gone. Obama now attracts 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 42%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46%. Compared to a week ago, Obama has gained a single percentage point (see recent daily results).

More important than the trip, however, is what it reveals - that there is strong voter resistance to the notion of Barack. A glass ceiling - an wall that can't be seen, but stops his movement cold. It's been like this since mid-March, and the appearance of Jeremiah Wright.

However, the week’s polling showed a roller-coaster of opinion surrounding Obama’s big speech. The event in Berlin was well-covered and initial reviews on the speech were positive. Polling on Thursday and Friday nights was very strong for the Democrat, leading to a six-point advantage in our Saturday morning release. However, polling for the past three days shows no trace of a bounce. The data looks very similar to results from the period preceding the speech and, with fourteen weeks to go, the race for the White House is a toss-up.

McCain is more popular amongst his party members than is Barack with Democrats, and McCain is just as popular with independents.

Obama earns the vote from 78% of Democrats, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans, and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.

While Democrats will automatically assume that racism provides Barack his barrier, the polls indicate that Barack does better with white voters than George W. did in either 2000 or 2004.

McCain leads 50% to 44% among White voters and 51% to 43% among men. Obama leads 51% to 42% among women and 92% to 5% among African-Americans (see other recent demographic highlights).

As I posted earlier - "It's entirely unlikely that an unknown quantity like Barack, with no leadership experience and a checkered collection of allies - including links to anti-American radicalism - two Muslim fathers, a Muslim sounding name and a groundbreaking racial configuration can capture the hearts of America, even given the huge structural advantage that any Democrat enjoys today."

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 54%.