The Memo

It looks like AP didn't get the memo. The big news organization has released a poll showing Barack just one point ahead of McCain. Which would explain why Obama had Colin Powell make his announcement on Sunday.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

Don't they know it's a going to be a landslide?

The new AP-GfK head-to-head result is a departure from some, but not all, recent national polls.

Obama and McCain were essentially tied among likely voters in the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican strategist Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake.

The poll was taken for five days, starting last Thursday and ending on Monday.

McCain's strong showing is partly attributable to his strong debate performance; Thursday was his best night of the survey. Obama's best night was Sunday, hours after the Powell announcement, and the full impact of that endorsement may not have been captured in any surveys yet. Future polling could show whether either of those was merely a support "bounce" or something more lasting.

With the latest disaster from Joe Biden creating a new opportunity for McCain to clarify the huge error in judgment Barack showed in choosing Biden, things could swing even more in McCain's direction.

The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters.

Gallup says the race has tightened by two points since yesterday, with Barack up 5%, while Rasmussen has it at 6%.