Ironically, the Rasmussen tracker, less volatile with it's survey of likely voters, has the race as a tie.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows hints of a modest convention bounce building for Barack Obama. The Democrat gained a point from yesterday and now attracts 45% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 44%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 47%.Whatever bump Obama may get will be difficult to sustain, as McCain stands poised to pounce on the news cycle with his VP announcement tonight.
Reviewing recent single-night polling data—rather than the three-day average--shows that Obama lost ground immediately following the selection of Joe Biden as his running mate. That had little or nothing to do with Biden and everything to do with the fact that the running mate was not named Hillary Clinton. The impact of that choice was reflected in the polling results released Tuesday and Wednesday showing modest gains for McCain.
McCain's attempt to end news stories about Barack's acceptance speech at Rezko Field tonight as soon as they begin is shrewd.
However, events are moving rapidly this season and the impact of the convention is starting to replace the impact of the Vice Presidential announcement. New polling data shows that 74% of Democrats say their convention has unified the party and 84% believe Hillary Clinton’s speech will help Obama in the fall.
Even if Obama gets a couple of days of news out of his speech tonight, it will end on Monday with the start of the GOP convention.
Obama’s poll numbers have improved over the past couple of nights and today’s update shows a tie race because it includes a mix of both recent trends. But it seems likely that Obama will end the convention with a modest lead over McCain. Then, of course, it will be time for the Republican Vice Presidential pick and, next week, the GOP convention.
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