Squeeze Those Lemons

John McCain's convention being blown out by a hurricane could be a disaster for his candidacy.

Prediction: I think the storm coinciding with the Republican Convention will ultimately lead to an advantage for John McCain.

Warning to Michael Moore (and other McCain haters): Be careful what you wish for.

“I was just thinking, this Gustav is proof that there is a God in heaven,” Moore said, laughing. “To have it planned at the same time – that it would actually be on its way to New Orleans for day one of the Republican Convention, up in the Twin Cities – at the top of the Mississippi River.”

I don't mind the sick humor. If I were on his side, I might have a chuckle, too, at McCain's misfortune. But what if it isn't unfortunate for the GOP?

The challenge of life is to make lemonade out of them lemons, and I have a feeling that's what the Republican candidates will do. As McCain prepares to tamp down the hoopla in Minnesota, consider the repercutions of the storm:
1) McCain gets to focus on the storm, showing leadership.
2) Media storylines this week will be more focused on McCain than Barack - during a time of crisis.
3) On the third anniversary of Katrina, McCain will emphasize how much better he handles these types of things than did President Bush.
4) Instead of posing in Minnesota, he may give his speech from a remote location near the storm damage. An action speech, rather than a poser speech.

And consider this:

President Bush is unlikely to make it to the Republican National Convention, and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) may deliver his acceptance speech via satellite because of the historically huge hurricane threatening New Orleans, top officials said.

No Bush speech spells good news for McCain, as well.

Brilliant

Almost everyone I've spoken with who isn't rooting for Barack is thrilled with the VP choice of Sarah Palin. Now the polls are proving the brilliance of the move.

First, the new Zogby poll, begun on Friday after Palin was named and finished this morning, shows McCain leading by 2%.

McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden.

And the two daily tracking polls have started to shift toward McCain. Gallup had Barack up 8% after his convention bump - that's now down to 6%. And Rasmussen has dropped from a 4 point lead for Obama to 3%. The downward trends are the result of the Saturday polling, just one third of the results in a three day poll. But the news inside the Rasmussen poll is the most telling.

Today’s numbers show a one-point improvement for McCain, but Obama still leads 47% to 44%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 46% (see recent daily results). Obama is now viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters, McCain by 56%.

No difference in favorability after Barack's big speech is huge - but check this out!

There have been significant changes in perception of John McCain in the two days of polling since he named Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Since then, 49% of Republicans voice a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. That’s up six percentage points from 43% just before the announcement. Also, 64% of unaffiliated voters now give positive reviews to McCain, up ten points since naming his running mate.

Independent voters are going to decide the election, so a ten point move is striking.

There has been little change in perceptions of Obama since his Thursday night speech....

We have to assume that Barack would have received a good bump from his speech, the convention climax, had the McCain campaign not managed its VP announcment so masterfully, and if not for the excitement created by its selection.

Palin herself made a good first impression and is now viewed favorably by 53% of voters nationwide. Her counterpart, Joe Biden, is viewed favorably by 48%.

Palin is what we call a game-changer.

Thoughtful Analysis

Finally, analysis of the Palin selection that shows some insight.

Nervous Laughter

It's what they call a nervous laugh.

Asked at a press conference Saturday night to respond to McCain's argument that Palin has more executive experience than the Democratic ticket, Obama and Biden laughed.

Obama gets this totally wrong!

"I think you guys can take a look at Gov. Palin's record, Joe Biden's record and make your judgment in terms of who you think has what it takes to be an outstanding vice president," Obama said after a rally in Dublin, Ohio. "I feel confident about my choice."

While Palin's experience may not hold up against Joe Biden's, but it looks pretty strong against Barack's!

This was about as far as Obama would go, for a second day in a row, to cast a critical eye on Palin.

That's because Palin, and her lack of experience, is very scary for Barack Obama. It's just amazing how automatically the conversation flows from Palin's lack of experience to Barack's.

How Dare They!

How can those who are supposed to be savvy about politics argue that McCain's choice of Sarah Palin takes experience off the table as an argument against Barack?

Here's the interesting tactical reality - Sarah Palin is brilliant as a choice for VP because she puts experience on the table. Let the whole country start talking qualifications - the last thing Barack wants voters contemplating is appropriate levels of experience for Prez or VP.

Remember this line from Barack's speech the other night?

If John McCain wants to have a debate about who has the temperament, and judgment, to serve as the next Commander-in-Chief, that's a debate I'm ready to have.

See, it's not John McCain who wants to have a debate on temperment and judgment, it's Barack Obama. That's a debate he's ready to have because it shifts the focus away from his resume problems. Whenever the conversation turns to experience, Republicans win.

So why do we read those silly editorials saying that Palin's experience is a problem for McCain? Here are three separate editorials excerpted in the gleeful Daily Kos. First up - the Denver Post.

Yes, John McCain, who argues with a straight face that Barack Obama's 12 years in the Illinois legislature and U.S. Senate aren't enough to qualify him to run for president, has picked a running mate who just two years ago was serving as mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, population 5,470.

And - two years ago Barack had wrapped up his first year as a U.S. Senator before abandoning his post to run for President! Did he even have a key to the men's room yet? Here's another editorial:

Palin, 44, with less than two years as governor and no foreign policy experience, can't be sold as ready to step into the presidency if called upon.

Funny how important foreign policy is, all of a sudden, for a VP -- but not a problem to elect someone who's only been a state senator and a no-show U.S. senator as president.

The Republican presidential candidate has emphasized the importance of military and national security issues, and taken shots at Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, for having only four years of experience in the U.S. Senate. Yet McCain now suggests that someone halfway through her first term as governor is "exactly who this country needs" only one step away from the presidency.

Sarah Palin is the only one of the four candidates who has actually run a government - and she's run two governments. It wasn't that long ago we wouldn't even consider electing Senators to the White House - remember?

Scroll down one post to see the lame new ad Barack is running in response to Palin, and you'll see how determined the Obama campaign is not to attack Palin's credentials. He doesn't want to talk experience, and, of course, who wants to be accused of hitting a girl?

Hitting a Girl

After having messed up on its initial response to the choice of Sarah Palin, Barack's folks are treading more lightly now, still off-balance from the surprise. Their first ad responding to her selection doesn't mention her - it just laments that he's still the same old John McCain.

Will the Real Barack Obama....

Have you ever seen the real Barack Obama in action? I don't mean the candidate Barack Obama, who says he's going to bring us a new Washington but can point to no actions that would indicated this is going to part of his future. I mean someone who has actually lived the ideal that Barack contemplates - someone who is truly post-partisan.

Before she was running against him, Sarah Palin—the governor of Alaska and now the Republican candidate for Vice-President of the United States—thought it was pretty neat that Barack Obama was edging ahead of John McCain in her usually solidly red state. After all, she said, Obama’s campaign was using the same sort of language that she had in her gubernatorial race. “The theme of our campaign was ‘new energy,’ ” she said recently. “It was no more status quo, no more politics as usual, it was all about change. So then to see that Obama—literally, part of his campaign uses those themes, even, new energy, change, all that, I think, O.K., well, we were a little bit ahead on that.”

Even though she knew she was being considered, on some level, as a possible GOP VP pick, Sarah Palin didn't mind talking in ways that some might consider disloyal about the presidential race. In other words, unlike Barack, she wasn't going to alter her stances to curry favor and gain power.

She also noted, “Something’s kind of changing here in Alaska, too, for being such a red state on the Presidential level. Obama’s doing just fine in polls up here, which is kind of wigging people out, because they’re saying, ‘This hasn’t happened for decades that in polls the D’ ”—the Democratic candidate—“ ‘is doing just fine.’ To me, that’s indicative, too. It’s the no-more-status-quo, it’s change.”

Sarah Palin, like John McCain, can say that she's willing to risk personal political damage to be who she is and believe what she believes - and she can point to specific examples of having done so.

This was two weeks ago, at the statehouse in Juneau. After persistent reports, in July, that Palin was on McCain’s short list of potential running mates, her name had faded back into obscurity. Nobody in Alaska seemed to take her seriously as a national prospect, and she had shrugged the whole thing off on television, telling CNBC’s Larry Kudlow that, before considering the job, she would want to know “what is it, exactly, that the V.P. does every day.”

That sounds like someone who has the conviction to change the way Washington does business.

Now, at the statehouse, she sat, unattended by aides, curled up in a cardigan, and explained that what she had done every day since becoming governor was to stick her thumb in the eye of Alaska’s Republican Party establishment. “The G.O.P. leader of the state—we haven’t spoken since I got elected,” she said.

Barack walked away from his support for federal funding of elections, his promise on FISA, and his unequivocal commitment to withdraw troops on a fixed schedule - once cornerstone principles of his candidacy - because he wants power. That's doesn't forshadow a leader who will be an agent of change.

She went on, “I guess if you take the individual issues, two that I believe would be benchmarks showing whether you’re a hard-core Republican conservative or not, would be: I’m a lifetime member of the N.R.A.—but this is Alaska, who isn’t?—and I am pro-life, absolutely.” She continued, “I guess that puts me in a box of being hard-core Republican.” But she said she recognized that “the Democrats also preach individual freedoms and individual rights, capitalism, free market, let-it-do-its-thing-best, let people keep as much of their money that they earn as possible. And when it comes to, like, the Party machine, no one will accuse me of being partisan.”

Jeez. So this is what a real post-partisan candidate talks like. I have to admit, it will take some getting used to.

So the possibility that Obama might win Alaska did not worry Palin: “Turning maybe purple in the state means, to me, it’s more independent, it’s not the obsessive partisanship that gets in the way of doing what’s right for this state, and I think on a national level that’s what we’re gonna see.” And she added, “That’s why McCain is the candidate for the G.O.P.—because he’s been known as the maverick, as the conduit for some change.”

Ladies and Gentlemen, we now know that there are people out there who are actually living Barack's fantasy. John McCain, who has a long record of taking political hits for doing what he thinks is right without regard for partisan considerations, and Sarah Palin, who doesn't look at the world through red and blue colored glasses.

...on McCain’s signature issue—the prosecution of the war in Iraq—she did not sound so gung-ho. Her son is a soldier, and she said, “I’m a mom, and my son is going to get deployed in September, and we better have a real clear plan for this war. And it better not have to do with oil and dependence on foreign energy.”

Will the real Barack Obama please stand up? I believe she just did.

The Palin Effect

The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll confirms the results of the Rasmussen tracker - while Barack got a bump of several points from the Bill and Hillary Clinton days of the convention, day four, featuring The Messiah himself, brought him no increase in support.

Barack Obama maintains an eight percentage point lead over John McCain when registered voters nationwide are asked whom they would vote for in the presidential election if it were held today, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking figures.

It appears we can credit the Palin Effect, along with the clever VP announcement handling of the McCain team, with having nipped Barack's growth in the bud. The numbers will likely pull closer together by the beginning of the week.

Rasmussen also didn't change the day after Barack's big speech.

The numbers are little changed since yesterday and show Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 43%.

Scroll down for more poll results.

Nice Speech, No Bump

The Barack Speech surge didn't happen according to the Rasmussen poll.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday is the first to include reaction to both Barack Obama’s acceptance speech and John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin to be his running mate. The numbers are little changed since yesterday and show Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 45% (see recent daily results).

The daily tracking poll is three days of polling combined. On day one, the race was even, on day two, Barack got a four point bounce from the convention, but last night's polling, which should have shown a huge bump from Thursday night's Obama speech, was flat. Nice speech, no bump. The point goes to McCain for the Palin pick, and for grabbing back control of the news cycle.

Obama currently leads by thirteen points among women while McCain leads by six among men. Among white women, the candidates are essentially even while McCain holds a substantial lead among white men.

So far, people are more impressed by Governor Palin than they are by Senator Biden.

Sarah Palin made a good first impression. She was unknown nationally before being introduced as the GOP Vice-Presidential pick but is now viewed favorably by 53% of voters nationwide. Her counterpart, Joe Biden, is viewed favorably by 48%. While Palin has made a good first impression, the more significant numbers will come a week from now after the nation has a chance to learn more about her.

But Sarah: Johnny Hardly Knew Ye

Since when did knowing the VP in advance of her selection become important? Liberals are all a twitter.

John McCain first met Palin in February of this year and had a telephone conversation with her. That is the full extent of his familiarity with Palin until he spent time with her last week. That's how seriously he is taking the presidency of the United States. It's simply unbelievable recklessness. It's Bush-level recklessness.

That's Andrew Sullivan in The Atlantic. Here's Andrea Mitchell hitting the same storyline on Hardball.


Funny, I recall that FDR met Truman for the first time after his selection, likewise George Bush with Dan Quayle - and meeting Dan Quayle only makes you like him more - and Kennedy knew LBJ enough to hate him before his selection. Where does this intimacy expectation come from?

It's not nice to fool Mother News.

Fair Reviews

What do moms at the state fair have to say about their Governor Palin being selected by John McCain? Since the hope is, clearly, that Palin will keep angry female voters from settling for Barack, their feedback could be enlightening.

Fooled and Angry

John McCain fooled almost everyone. And the media doesn't like it. Could the wonderful storyline of Sarah Palin be damaged by reporters and pundits who don't like being made to look bad? The AP isn't happy:

In two short years, Sarah Palin moved from small-town mayor with a taste for mooseburgers to the governor's office and now - making history - to John McCain's side as the first female running mate on a Republican presidential ticket.

She has more experience catching fish than dealing with foreign policy or national affairs.

When did foreign affairs experience become important to reporters, in lust with Barack who has no experience doing anything but teaching constitutional law? Joe Conason writes with contempt in Salon:

But if Palin's résumé is limited, to put it politely, she possesses the only two qualities that McCain now seems to consider essential: She is a right-wing religious ideologue with female gender characteristics. Suddenly that is all anyone needs to qualify as a potential commander in chief of the world's most powerful military.

And Joe Biden was chosen because he's a man who is white and who has experience to make up for Barack's lack of it. Where is the matching contempt? Would Biden have been chosen were he a woman? Nope. Black? Nope. A first term senator? Nope. If he hadn't had the hair transplant? Probably not.

James Rainey tells McCain in the LA Times:

You gave the media what it always claims it wants: Surprises. Original thinking. News.

What a mistake.

In trying to reclaim your maverick brand, you appear to have pushed an unknown, unformed and under-vetted politician onto the world's biggest political stage.

Reporters like new faces because the status quo is tiresome to write about. They also like new faces like a lion likes a baby wildebeest -- fresh meat on the hoof, not much energy to make the kill.

As Andrew Halco, an anti-Palin blogger who ran against Palin for Governor says about her election there:

it was, like, this isn't about policy or Alaska issues, this is about people's most basic instincts: 'I like you, and you make me feel good.'"

"You know," Halcro said, invoking the Democratic presidential nominee, "that's kind of like Obama."

The media looks to be more comfortable with stars they create rather than self-made ones. While there is an argument to be made that Palin lacks the experience to be vice president, there's also an argument to be made that her 13 years holding elective office, including executive positions, makes her more qualified to be president than Barack.

Gustav's Bounce

Will McCain get his bounce sharing the headlines with Gustav?

There is no question that Gustav will be a destructive hurricane by the time it reaches the U.S. Gulf Coast early next week. The question remains, will Hanna bring more destruction by late next week?

The specter of Gustav and the danger it poses to the Gulf Coast grows tonight as the nation marked the third anniversary of Hurricane Katrina Friday, regarded as one of the most destructive natural disasters in U.S. history.

As Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet explained, "This storm will be destructive. Where it goes will determine whether it knocks down trees and floods bayous, or whether it destroys communities."

Barack's Bounce

Barack got a nice bump out of the convention. How long it survives Sarah Palin will be fun to watch. The Gallup Poll shows Barack up 8 points, and Rasmussen, the more reliable of the two, gives Obama a 4 point lead.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 45% (see recent daily results).

This is Obama’s biggest lead since late July, when he opened up a six-point advantage following his summer speech in Berlin.

This bump will likely disappear as fast as the Berlin bounce did.

Dems Tread Lightly

Will Sarah Palin be a tough opponent to hit?

John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate presents the Obama-Biden campaign with an unwelcome and unexpected challenge: How do you go after a 44-year-old mother of five without once alienating the female voters you’ve just spent the last week trying to win back?

The answer so far: Not very well.

It only took a few minutes for the Obama campaign to screw it up.

Minutes after the McCain campaign confirmed that Palin would be the Republican’s VP pick, Obama spokesman Bill Burton dismissed the Alaska governor as a lightweight.

McCain, he said, had put "the former mayor of a town of 9,000, with zero foreign policy experience, a heartbeat away from the presidency." Almost immediately, the campaign seemed to reconsider its tough-guy approach.

Imagine that? All of a sudden, Democrats think a president needs to have foreign policy experience?

Almost immediately, the campaign seemed to reconsider its tough-guy approach.

In a statement distributed by the campaign, Barack Obama and Joe Biden said Palin’s selection was “yet another encouraging sign that old barriers are falling in our politics. While we obviously have differences over how best to lead this country forward, Gov. Palin is an admirable person and will add a compelling new voice to this campaign.”

Barack, already in trouble with women, had best tread lightly.

Many of Clinton’s supporters continue to believe that sexism played a large role in her defeat.

“I would say to the Democrats, regarding sexism, ‘Tag, you’re it,'” said Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway. “Everyone likes to say you are sexist if you don’t vote for Hillary Clinton, but what about all the women who are not going to vote for Sarah Palin?”

Nice Speech, No Bump

The Barack Speech surge didn't happen according to the Rasmussen poll.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday is the first to include reaction to both Barack Obama’s acceptance speech and John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin to be his running mate. The numbers are little changed since yesterday and show Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 45% (see recent daily results).

The daily tracking poll is three days of polling combined. On day one, the race was even, on day two, Barack got a four point bounce from the convention, but last night's polling, which should have shown a huge bump from Thursday night's Obama speech, was flat. Nice speech, no bump. Point to McCain for the Palin pick, and for grabbing back control of the news cycle.

Obama currently leads by thirteen points among women while McCain leads by six among men. Among white women, the candidates are essentially even while McCain holds a substantial lead among white men.

So far, people are more impressed by Governor Palin than they are by Senator Biden.

Sarah Palin made a good first impression. She was unknown nationally before being introduced as the GOP Vice-Presidential pick but is now viewed favorably by 53% of voters nationwide. Her counterpart, Joe Biden, is viewed favorably by 48%. While Palin has made a good first impression, the more significant numbers will come a week from now after the nation has a chance to learn more about her.

She For Real?

While Sarah Palin selection as a running mate appears to represent a brilliant tactical stroke for the McCain campaign, what if she is really unqualified to be so close to the presidency? Will we accept the risk in exchange for protecting the country against the inexperience, and liberalism, of Barack Obama?

Don't get me wrong, on paper her credentials are better than Barack's resume in my book. Liberals are comfortable with Barack being inexperienced because he's thoughtful and articulate, and in the world of the educated elite, thoughtful and articulate is what it's all about. They don't mind that he's never been a leader, is untested, and has used his elected positions as stepping stones, and they forgive his alliances with distasteful characters - all because he's thoughtful and articulate.

Conservatives have more respect for life experience credentials than academic ones. That's our bias. Give me the gal who hunts, fishes, has a good outside shot and competes for Miss Alaska, has five kids while getting herself from PTA to the governor's seat by attacking the dug in political machinery of her own party - I'll take her any day over the law professor. But those are the cover stories of the candidates - what's the real deal on Palin?

Consider the story of one of Governor Palin's former trusted advisors, John Bitney.

Bitney grew up with the governor, often telling the story of being in the same band class. He served as her Issues Coordinator during her successful gubernatorial campaign in 2006, spokesman for her transition team after the election and on December 1, 2006 he was named her Legislative Liaison.

What if she's a joke? What if she hasn't handled power well?

Bitney was respected as a hard worker by people who knew him and worked with him. In six months, Bitney guided the governor's policies through the legislature, including her hallmark legislation; AGIA.

But John Bitney made the fatal employment mistake; he got on the bad side of Todd Palin.

In June of 2007, it became known that Bitney was dating the soon to be ex-wife of Todd Palin's good friend. Palin reportedly began demanding that Bitney be fired.

What if she's not bothered to take a professional approach to running the government, but instead, has taken a townie approach - turning power over to her husband and high school friends without learning how to master the system?

After a short time, Bitney realized that he couldn't remain in the governor's office due to the constant pressure and he worked out a deal with Chief of Staff Mike Tibbles to take a transfer to another department.

What if the woman who fought the entrenched power structure has spent her 18 months in office learning to imitate the ones she ousted?

On July 3, Bitney was in the process of driving his vehicle back to Juneau when he couldn't get his state issued Blackberry to work. When he arrived in Tok he called his office and was told that his Blackberry had been turned off and that his name had been removed from the state employee directory.

His call was then transferred into Tibbles who told him the proposal they talked about was a no deal and the governor ordered him fired immediately. John Bitney was never given a reason why he was fired and never given a chance to make a graceful exit.

That's the rap on Palin from the opposition.

It is scary to think about a guy being elected President on the strength of being thoughtful and articulate. It's also scary to think of McCain's second in command being a lightweight who has not made the effort to weild power effectively, but instead, is happy to be the very capable face of power.

We shall enjoy the new election process, upended by McCain's selection. And I will continue to investigate the realities behind the near perfect picture that Sarah Palin is - and report to you here.

Central Casting

An impressive first shot at Sarah Palin, who seems about as perfect a candidate as one can imagine, but for her lack of experience. Her resume is better than Barack's, though, so any attacks on her experience will only force a closer look at Barack's lack of qualifications for President.

After all, Palin is going for the second position, and she has management experience. Barack's never run anything, and rather than serve in the U.S. Senate he left the people of Illinois unrepresented as soon as he arrived in Washington so he could seek the presidency.

Her speech today was a fine one - on first glance a powerful addition to the McCain campaign that must have the Obama folks reeling.


But here's the contrast where Barack really suffers. He's an ideas guy - a philosopher/poet who captures the imagination, but shows no interest in actually doing anything to achieve change. Palin's story is the opposite - a woman who in her gut is offended by mismanagement and corruption, and steps outside of life as a normal American to fight to fix what's broken.

A thinker vs. a doer. It's a good story line for the GOP to emphasize.

Meanwhile, CNN is reporting that the Obama campaign misfired in its first response, sending off an email attacking Palin's lack of experience. In the second missive, they applauded the breaking of barriers.

Surprise

Suprised. The Obama campaign is surprised. Now, that is an achievement.


Which would explain why the campaign's initial response to the pick was such a blunder:

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's campaign on Friday blasted his Republican rival's choice of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as a running-mate, highlighting her "zero" foreign policy experience.

I suspect that most Americans will understand that having a son in the army and on his way to Iraq makes her more qualified on foreign policy than a guy who spent a few months in the U.S. Senate before running for President.

Sarah Barracuda

With the Rasmussen poll showing that Barack has a bump of 4 points, up from a tie yesterday, the McCain campaign has made a move that should nip the growth of that bump in the bud - the selection today of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to be his running mate.

With a hurricane on its way to the gulf coast, today's announcement just might be all McCain gets to have for a convention. But the news of Palin provides compensation.

This grabs the news cycle away from Barack's concert last night at the Rezko Center, and injects a bit of history into to the GOP campaign.

Here are Palin's liabilities. First, inexperience. She was the mayor of a tiny city, and she's been governor for less than two years. She also comes from a state that is currently racked with ethics issues in the GOP, most notably the corruption trial of Senator Ted Stevens, due to start in September.

In addition, Palin has her own troubles - whether she intervened in the career of a state trooper who had been her brother in law.

Aides to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin pressured the Public Safety Department to fire a state trooper who was divorcing her sister and fighting for custody of her nephew, according to the Anchorage Daily News.

Palin, a Republican, says there were "at least two dozen calls from her staff members" to state police officials about Trooper Mike Wooten.

The governor denied allegations that Public Safety Director Walt Monegan was removed from office because he wouldn't fire Wooten, but she acknowledged that the calls didn't look good.

"The individual inquiries taken by themselves are one thing. Many of these inquiries were completely appropriate; however, the serial nature of the contacts understandably could be perceived as some kind of pressure, presumably at my direction," Palin tells reporters, according to KTUU-TV.

McCain made the calculation that the upside would override these issues. And the upsides are many. Palin is young, at 44, she's the mother of five children, the last of which was born with Down Syndrome in April. The fact that she and her husband decided to have the child anyway will likely make her a hero of the conservative Republican voters.

Trig arrived about a month early and has Down syndrome, the governor confirmed. Testing during early pregnancy revealed the condition. Palin said she was sad at first but they now feel blessed that God chose them. The couple has lots of family support, she said.

More good news:

Palin is a conservative who only last month vetoed 13 percent of the state's proposed budget for capital projects. The cuts, the Anchorage Daily News said, "may be the biggest single-year line-item veto total in state history."

She's feisty - having been a whistleblower against a member of her own party:

State law barred Palin from speaking out publicly about ethical violations and corruption. But she was vindicated later in 2004 when Ruedrich, who'd been reconfirmed as state chairman, agreed to pay a $12,000 fine for breaking state ethics laws. She became a hero in the eyes of the public and the press, and the bane of Republican leaders.

And how about this!

Gov. Palin grew up in Wasilla, where as star of her high school basketball team she got the nickname “Sarah Barracuda” for her fierce competitiveness. She led her underdog team to the state basketball championship. Palin also won the Miss Wasilla beauty contest, in which she was named Miss Congeniality, and went on to compete in the Miss Alaska pageant.

It takes a few minutes for Glenn Beck to get to Palin, but if you have time it's a chance to see her in action.

Sherlock Says....

Fox News is still talking about a small private plane that landed in Middletown, Ohio last night, perhaps carrying the Governor of Alaska and a child. But the story has expanded into a two plane scenario.

The first plane left Anchorage two days ago, landing in Flagstaff Arizona before proceeding to Ohio and landing around 7pm last night. A second private plane, now on the runway in Ohio, came in at 10pm after originating in Anchorage.

Romney and Pawlenty have said that they're not the guy. And Huckabee said this yesterday:

There are reports that I’m on my way to Dayton tonight. Not true. Wasn’t invited to be there and any reports that I’m going to be there are a big surprise to me. I have never been contacted by the McCain campaign at any point about the VP slot. I have never been asked for any information, background, etc., so as I have said repeatedly in interviews, I didn’t consider myself to be under any consideration.

Sarah Palin dramatically changes this race, and creates a new storyline that steals the spotlight from Barack. This is particulary important as McCain faces the real possibility that his convention week will be ruined by Hurricane Gustav.

Another Jimmy Gimme

The always politically astute Jimmy Carter is doing his best to promote John McCain's heroic military service, expressing his shock over McCain's performance at the Saddleback forum a couple of weeks ago.

Carter said that whether he was asked about religion, domestic or foreign affairs, every answer came back to McCain's 5½ years as a POW.

You'd think that the party running a 47 year old who has no accomplishments on his resume that would indicate preparation for the presidency would want to keep quiet about McCain's inspiring life story.

"John McCain was able to weave in his experience in a Vietnam prison camp, no matter what the question was," Carter said. "It's much better than talking about how he's changed his total character between being a senator, a kind of a maverick … and his acquiescence in the last few months with every kind of lobbyist pressure that the right-wing Republicans have presented."

Is McCain highlighting the great personal tragedy of spending 5 years as a POW illegitimate? Is it different from Biden launching his candidacy by politicizing his own personal tragedies?

It's Palin

Barack's rock concert last night apparently had some impact, as John McCain has chosen Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Although ABC says she's not with McCain:

ABC News' Kate McCarthy Reports: As vice presidential speculation swirls, Gov. Sarah Palin is watching the fireworks from her home in Wasilla, Alaska.

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., is in Dayton, Ohio, awaiting a high noon event at which the campaign has said the Republican contender will announce his running mate.

Reports indicated that both Romney and Palin have told friends that they are not McCain's choice.

This is a game-changer, coat-tailing on the excitement of the first black presidential nominee to offer the chance for the first female VP.

Sarah Heath Palin (born February 11, 1964) is the current Governor of Alaska, and a member of the Republican Party. She is the first female governor of Alaska, its youngest, and is the first governor born after Alaska achieved statehood. Brought to statewide attention because of her whistleblowing on ethical violations by state Republican Party leaders,^[1] she won election in 2006 by first defeating the incumbent governor in the Republican primary, then a former Democratic Alaskan governor in the general election.

The risk of the choice is that Palin is almost as inexperienced as is Barack, and McCain needs a VP who is perceived as having the gravitas to step into the presidency, as his advanced years raise expectations that he won't still be serving at he approaches 80.

Palin's a smart, edgy pol who is exceptionally popular in Alaska. She's a conservative with a reputation as a reformer -- which has been somewhat tainted by scandals associated with her office.

Palin's married to an Eskimo, she's got a kid in the Army, she likes to hunt and fish, eats moose burgers, and has taken on establishment Republicans to elbow her way onto the political stage.

If she's the pick, Palin's a smart if risky choice for McCain.

Because of the experience factor, I didn't think McCain would make such a bold choice. I'm happy that he did, but concerned.

Either way, we have to hand it to McCain - he's woven a very complex tapestry of deception, making it very hard to guess the choice.

Timing

Timing is everything. That's the old saying, and it appears to be true in the campaign of John McCain, whose convention, and campaign, stands ready to be robbed of its week in the spotlight by Hurricane Gustav.

Preparations continue along the Gulf Coast where Gustav will pose a serious threat to lives and property early next week. Newly-formed Tropical Storm Hanna could eventually create problems for the Bahamas in the days following Gustav's landfall.

Today marks the anniversary of one of the most devastating natural disasters in United States history, the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. With the destruction and loss of lives during Katrina fresh of many people's minds, the Gulf Coast prepares for Gustav.

As of 5 a.m. EDT, Gustav was a strong tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Centerreports the storm will strengthen into a hurricane today as it departs the mountainous island of Jamaica.

On the other hand, life isn't about the hardships that come your way, it's about how you react. McCain's campaign has shown itself to be pretty adept at responding to events, and I suspect they're planning right now how to maximize the opportunity that a hurricane convention presents.

Drudge has an undeveloped headline suggesting that the " GOP may delay start of convention because of Hurricane Gustav." How do they do that?

The fact remains, however, that three years after Katrina, this is a cruel reminder of W's disinterest, and government incompetence, surrounding that event.

I Am Woman

Fox is reporting that Sarah Palin,, governor of Alaska, is John McCain's choice as a running mate.

Inexperience

Funny.

Barack spent much of his speech attacking John McCain, seeking to make people fearful that he is nothing more than another George W. Bush.

Then he said:

Because if you don't have any fresh ideas, then you use stale tactics to scare the voters. If you don't have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run from.

Who was he describing? Who doesn't have a record to run on? Who is using scare tactics?

Who?

McCain has done a nice job of playing the VP card in such a manner as to steal some news cycle from Barack's big speech. On my local news, the lead story was Barack, followed by McCain's pick being announced today, followed by the weather.

Speaking of the weather, there is a hurricane coming that appears designed to make it impossible for John McCain to escape the linkage to George Bush that Democrats seek to create in the minds of voters. Imagine Gustav coming to shore through the Gulf of Mexico and hitting Louisiana and Mississippi on Wednesday night in the middle of John McCain's convention? Now that would take some skill to finesse. Katrina was three years ago today.

In the meantime, the McCain campaign is skillfully maneuvering to limit the surge from Barack's big night, even while being respectful of it.

Arizona Sen. John McCain is expected to announced his pick for vice president Thursday evening or Friday.

He decided to wait until Friday after teasing a Thursday night announcement. Leaving us all to wonder - who?

A source familiar with the search said a number of the VP contenders, including Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman, I-Conn., former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and others are expected to travel to Dayton for a Friday rally when McCain is expected to announce his running mate. That will create even more buzz around the pick, the source said.

It obviously isn't Huckabee. Lieberman is very unlikely. Romney has some positives, but would ultimately undermine Barack's appeal to evangelicals and to crossover voters. And he has the baggage of his health reform bill in Massachusetts. Which is why I figure Pawlenty is the guy.

Pawlenty, Romney and Lieberman are seen as the most likely picks, according to the source, while others familiar with the campaign single out Pawlenty and Romney.

But I keep hoping for a game-changer. A woman would be the best thing, a draw for disgruntled Democrats.

There also has been speculation that McCain might pick a woman for his running mate after Democrat Barack Obama tapped U.S. Sen Joseph Biden, D-Del., rather than U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y. U.S Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, former EBay CEO Meg Whitman, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin are in the mix.

Hutchinson is too old school in my mind. The benefit would be lost. No one without government experience can be John McCain's running mate - it would create a vulnerability considering his age. The CEO angle is just a tease. Sarah Palin, in her first term as Governor of Alaska, can't be considered to be experienced enough.

How about Condi Rice? Why hasn't there been more speculation about her? She's likely being ruled out because she's never held elected office.

Leaving us again with Pawlenty.

Red Meat

He starts off thanking Hillary. Wow. Bill next. Then Teddy. Joe Biden. Then the love of his life, Michelle. And his daughters. But Hillary came first.


The Theme of his introductory video was that we make a promise to our kids that they can do anything if they put their mind to it. It is that promise that has always set this country apart, he says. And somehow, that America is in jeopardy because we're going through a bad economic cycle, and because of broken Washington and evil G.W. Bush.

It is that promise that has always set this country apart - that through hard work and sacrifice, each of us can pursue our individual dreams but still come together as one American family, to ensure that the next generation can pursue their dreams as well.

America, we are better than these last 8 years.

Then he introduces the new kinda politics and goes straight on the attack.

Now let there be no doubt. The Republican nominee, John McCain, has worn the uniform of our country with bravery and distinction, and for that we owe him our gratitude and respect. And next week, we'll also hear about those occasions when he's broken with his party as evidence that he can deliver the change that we need.

But the record's clear: John McCain has voted with George Bush ninety percent of the time.

Red Meat. He came with the red meat that was missing from the convention up to this point. And he provided some details of his vision for what change means to him, the best chance people have had yet to see just how fundamentally liberal he is.

America, now is not the time for small plans.

Now is the time to finally meet our moral obligation to provide every child a world-class education, because it will take nothing less to compete in the global economy. Michelle and I are only here tonight because we were given a chance at an education. And I will not settle for an America where some kids don't have that chance. I'll invest in early childhood education. I'll recruit an army of new teachers, and pay them higher salaries and give them more support. And in exchange, I'll ask for higher standards and more accountability. And we will keep our promise to every young American - if you commit to serving your community or your country, we will make sure you can afford a college education.

(You can't fix education with Democrats in power because of their partnership with the teacher's unions.)

Now is the time to finally keep the promise of affordable, accessible health care for every single American. If you have health care, my plan will lower your premiums. If you don't, you'll be able to get the same kind of coverage that members of Congress give themselves. And as someone who watched my mother argue with insurance companies while she lay in bed dying of cancer, I will make certain those companies stop discriminating against those who are sick and need care the most.

(Universal health care is coming with Barack - medical care provided with the same inspiration that education has.)

Now is the time to help families with paid sick days and better family leave, because nobody in America should have to choose between keeping their jobs and caring for a sick child or ailing parent.

(Who's going to pay for that? Who should?)

Now is the time to change our bankruptcy laws, so that your pensions are protected ahead of CEO bonuses; and the time to protect Social Security for future generations.

(ah, social security. One of the three federal programs driving us toward bankruptcy. As all social programs do)

And now is the time to keep the promise of equal pay for an equal day's work, because I want my daughters to have exactly the same opportunities as your sons.

He's a big government, anti-capitalism kind of guy.

And just as we keep our keep our promise to the next generation here at home, so must we keep America's promise abroad. If John McCain wants to have a debate about who has the temperament, and judgment, to serve as the next Commander-in-Chief, that's a debate I'm ready to have.

No, he wants to have a debate about who has the qualifications, experience, and a track record to justify even being considered for the White House.

Barack sought to take the debate away from experience and pull it back into the realm of judgment, where he does better, he thinks. We'll see if America buys it.

Obama-palooza

Obama-palooza is off and running at Rezko Field. Lots of people have been waiting for hours to hear people sing.

Stevie Wonder is performing. He says he loves us.

Earlier, I think it was the woman who used to be married to Lance Armstrong who played. She doesn't love us. At least, if she does, she didn't mention it.

Barack's set looks alot like the exterior wall of the Oval Office, if I'm not imagining things.

Al Gore is being introduced - I hope he's not going to sing. His talking is bad enough.

Al's not singing - instead, he's doing a stiff imitation of himself, slipping into a small guttural thing from time to time. He's speaking way too fast - like he has a convoy of SUV's waiting to take him to the private jet, with the engines running. Come to think of it, that wouldn't worry him.

Things would have been different if Al had won, he says. He's been talking for about two minutes, and he's already talking about sexual orientation. He's right, things would have been different.

Al just made a joke about recycling. I don't think that's appropriate.

Barack is not doing better in the polls, Al says, because people fear the change he represents. Maybe tonight Barack will tell us exactly what that is.

Sea levels are rising, says Al, who's getting excited. He loves talking about Armageddon. (Maybe it's really Reverend Wright in a Gore mask.) Massive waves of climate refugees are coming as a result of global warming, he warns. Funny, I watched the weather on the 6 o'clock news, extensive computer graphics and all, and they didn't show up on the radar.

He's talking about it being time for a change. He's still in a hurry - apparently he wants this change to come quickly. Or, nature calls, perhaps?

Al's making the point about this election isn't actually close - among younger voters. Kids with no experience in life, raised in the padded wall environs of America's suburbs, getting drunk and getting high, choose a candidate because they feel inspired, and we're supposed to get excited? Al's proud of the fact that you have to be immature to fall for the Hope and Change pitch.

He's talking about the civil war era now, and Abe Lincoln. He's misrepresenting Abe's experience, and creating the false impression that Barack's anti-war inactivism can be compared to Abe's passionate anti-war stance when he was a member of congress. Abe became a national joke he so vociferously attacked President Polk's stance on the Mexican-American War.

This is one of the most bizarre deliveries of a speech I've heard. He's still running at 100 miles an hour. Slow down Al.

No. Better yet, hurry up.

He's back to gutturals. I think that means he's wrapping up. More emotion is how we're supposed to interpret it.

"When you pray, move your feet," quotes Al. All of sudden, Democrats are obsessed with the religion that they've always been so contemptuous of. Okay. Let's see - pray, move your feet. I'm dancing around the living room praying for Al to move to France.

Michael MacDonald is doing America the Beautiful. Indredible how inspiring the delivery of a seasoned performer can be. Wait a sec! I thought it was time for change. Why all these singers with... experience?

Al's done, praise the Lord. He's off to the SUV's to be whisked away to save the planet private jet. Look - up in the sky! It's a bird! It's a plane! No, it's... CO2 Man!!!!

Dwight Eisenhower granddaughter - or something similar - is speaking. Apparently, she doesn't know about Global Warming or Love, because she hasn't mentioned either. It must be cold in Denver, because she's talking really fast too. Maybe it's the thin air.

She thinks Barack has the temperament to be president.

"Yes We Can," she says.

But David Gergen on CNN says there's too much music. He wants more substance. And he's wondering why both Suzie Eisenhower and Al Gore went back to Lincoln to frame their conversations, rather than MLK. While I understand how he feels about the music, I don't understand his desire for more Suzie and Al style speeches.

Joe Biden is out on stage - unexpected. But a good choice to introduce Barack. But he's doing the populist thing again. Last night was enough. Struggling. Mothers. Children.

Oh no. Is he introducing a video? He says we're going to hear from people Barack's been listening to. Oh, I see. He must mean that Reverend Wright is going to speak.

They're announcing that McCain is not going to announce his VP pick tonight because "This is Obama's night." Nice media manipulation on McCain's part. He had us all thinking something good was going to happen tonight.

I'm too tired for this - got up at 2:30 to do radio. I'll do Barack's speech on DVR.

Heavy Objects

What will Barack be doing tonight in his speech? Let's figure that he'll aggressively assert that he can handle being Commander in Chief, and he'll probably offer some specifics about what Hope and Change are all about.

According to a focus group conducted by pollster Frank Luntz, Obama’s problem is partially that the remaining undecided voters are getting a little tired of talk of the constant invoking of the watchwords “hope” and “change.”

I know that I'm getting sick of Barack being the blank slate who avoids specifics at all costs.

If Obama reverts to the lofty and ethereal language about his election being the moment that the sea levels receded and the sick were healed — the kind of talk Hillary mocked as celestial choirs singing — then these undecided voters may throw heavy objects at their television.

I have too much affection for my TV for that.

One of Luntz’s focus group members lamented the lack of substance behind the “charismatic talk,” and found much agreement from the rest of the group. Another said he was tired of “oratory” and another said “it’s not about change.”

There you go.

Luntz was blunter in assessing Obama’s flaws, urging both candidates to “cut through the crap” and describing a scenario where Obama comes across as “the beautiful politician who has the words but not the solutions,” and voters turn away.

Pawlenty Good

It seems pretty certain that Tim Pawlenty will be the choice for McCain's running mate. On one level this will be great news, as it will mean Lieberman and Romney, both of whom would have been a disaster, will have been passed over.

Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, taking his turn in Denver today to bash Democratic nominee Barack Obama, hammered home the Republican message that the staging of Obama's acceptance speech reveals his arrogance and vanity.

I have been hoping, however, for a game changer. A Condi Rice, Sarah Palin or some other game changer - a woman would be great - would have put team Obama into a fresh tailspin.

The backdrop for the stage at Invesco Field features faux-Greek columns made of plywood. Republicans are dubbing it the "Temple of Obama," and Pawlenty, believed to be among the finalists for Republican John McCain's running mate, piled on.

One of the difficulties for McCain in picking a VP is the experience factor. Condi has no electoral experience, and Palin is in her first term as Governor of Alaska.

"It looks like they are getting ready for the emperor to arrive," Pawlenty said on Fox News Network. "The facade is metaphor for production purposes, but there’s not much behind it. It’s the perfect metaphor for Barack Obama’s readiness to be president of the United States."

With McCain's advanced years, his VP will face experience scrutiny that's probably more rigorous than Barack.

On ABC, Pawlenty said, "This Roman-like facade, a facade with Roman columns, is a perfect metaphor or icon for the point that it's an interesting production, but behind it there's not much there."

But Pawlenty is in his second term as Governor of Minnesota, and at age 47 (same as Obama) is just about old enough for a VP.

He added, "My goodness, it's amazing that we're three days into the Democratic convention and 60 or so days from the actual election and they're still trying to plead with the American people and convince us that Barack Obama is ready to be president. The fact of the matter, he is not."

While not a game changer, Pawlenty is plenty good enough. A fresh face, a popular governor, and someone who compensates well for McCain's age. Not only that, he adds executive experience. Nice to have a VP who is more qualified than the Democrats man at the top of the ticket.

Barack Bump

The Gallup tracking poll, which a couple of days ago had McCain pulling into a 2 point lead, now has Barack up 6%. As a poll of registered voters, Gallup tends to jump around alot.

Ironically, the Rasmussen tracker, less volatile with it's survey of likely voters, has the race as a tie.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows hints of a modest convention bounce building for Barack Obama. The Democrat gained a point from yesterday and now attracts 45% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 44%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 47%.

Whatever bump Obama may get will be difficult to sustain, as McCain stands poised to pounce on the news cycle with his VP announcement tonight.

Reviewing recent single-night polling data—rather than the three-day average--shows that Obama lost ground immediately following the selection of Joe Biden as his running mate. That had little or nothing to do with Biden and everything to do with the fact that the running mate was not named Hillary Clinton. The impact of that choice was reflected in the polling results released Tuesday and Wednesday showing modest gains for McCain.

McCain's attempt to end news stories about Barack's acceptance speech at Rezko Field tonight as soon as they begin is shrewd.

However, events are moving rapidly this season and the impact of the convention is starting to replace the impact of the Vice Presidential announcement. New polling data shows that 74% of Democrats say their convention has unified the party and 84% believe Hillary Clinton’s speech will help Obama in the fall.

Even if Obama gets a couple of days of news out of his speech tonight, it will end on Monday with the start of the GOP convention.

Obama’s poll numbers have improved over the past couple of nights and today’s update shows a tie race because it includes a mix of both recent trends. But it seems likely that Obama will end the convention with a modest lead over McCain. Then, of course, it will be time for the Republican Vice Presidential pick and, next week, the GOP convention.

The McCain Choice

John McCain is teasing now on his VP choice, trying to steal back some attention.

Senator John McCain has decided on his running mate, two Republican strategists in contact with McCain's campaign said Wednesday. He is expected to reveal his choice at a rally at a basketball arena in Dayton, Ohio, at 11 a.m. Friday.

McCain has the chance to turn this race upside down - but that won't happen if he does what is expected.

McCain's decision is known only to his small inner circle of advisers, no more than three or four people, who have refused all public discussion on the matter. Republicans close to the campaign said that the top contenders remained the same three men who have been the source of speculation for weeks: former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and, possibly, Senator Joseph Lieberman, independent of Connecticut.

I know the arguments about mormons in Colorado, but I think that Mitt Romney would be a major mistake - he's too slick, insincere, and too vulnerable to attack for 1) what he said about McCain during the primaries and 2) for his lack of leadership in Massachusetts. I suspect Mitt's high level of visability this week was part of a ruse to keep people assuming that he's the nominee.

Joe Lieberman, while supposedly favored by McCain, would also be crazy. The message is too confusing. Is he a conservative? Is he a Democrat? Didn't he run with Al Gore?

Pawlenty looks like a good choice, but not a game changer. I see a game changer coming. A woman makes the most sense, to continue to drive the wedge between Hillary supporters and Barack supporters. Someone like Alaska Governor Sarah Palin would be great, but she's not experienced enough to go on the ticket with a 72 year old president, I'm afraid.

Kay Bailey Hutchinson, the Texas Senator is a possiblity, but she strikes me as so old school that her personna would undo that advantages that a woman would bring.

BTW - Great speech by Joe Biden. He made this feel like a convention for the first time. And Barack joined him on stage. Finally, some energy from these folks.

It's 3AM

Yup - 3AM and I'm watching DVR'd coverage from the 10pm hour Wednesday night on ABC. Stephanopoulos is going on and on how Bill Clinton gave so much to Barack in his speech. Maybe I'm over-analyzing, but it seemed to me that there was a great deal of parsing.

Watching it live last night, my wife and I were startled at this section.

Everything I learned in my eight years as President and in the work I’ve done
since, in America and across the globe, has convinced me that Barack Obama is
the man for this job.

He has a remarkable ability to inspire people, to raise our hopes and rally us
to high purpose. He has the intelligence and curiosity every successful
President needs. His policies on the economy, taxes, health care and energy are
far superior to the Republican alternatives. He has shown a clear grasp of our
foreign policy and national security challenges, and a firm commitment to repair
our badly strained military. His family heritage and life experiences have given
him a unique capacity to lead our increasingly diverse nation and to restore our
leadership in an ever more interdependent world. The long, hard primary tested
and strengthened him. And in his first presidential decision, the selection of a
running mate, he hit it out of the park.

Now, on the surface, that's very nice and positive. But Bill is dancing around the question in America's mind, leaving it unanswered. Does Barack have the experience for the job? It seems to me that he went out of his way not to provide the answer from his unique perspective - that of a former President. Then, he says the words that everyone's been waiting to hear - but about Joe Biden.

With Joe Biden’s experience and wisdom, supporting Barack Obama’s proven
understanding, insight, and good instincts, America will have the national
security leadership we need.

Barack has the ability to inspire folks to higher purpose, Joe Biden has the experience and wisdom. Together, they make a single entity with the qualifications to be president.

The next paragraph seemed to dance more tantalizingly around the words that Clinton wouldn't speak.

Barack Obama is ready to lead America and restore American leadership in the
world. Ready to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United
States. Barack Obama is ready to be President of the United States.

Ready? In what sense? He's impatient with the process, and wants to get started? Ready is different than qualified, and that's what Bill wouldn't say.

Together, we prevailed in a campaign in which the Republicans said I was too
young and too inexperienced to be Commander-in-Chief. Sound familiar? It didn’t
work in 1992, because we were on the right side of history. And it won’t work
in 2008, because Barack Obama is on the right side of history.

Ooooo, he's getting close, but he's not saying that he and Obama are equal in their qualifications, he's just saying they're getting the same reaction.

Maybe I'm nitpicking, but what I hear is that Bill Clinton agrees that Barack's not qualified, but that he's still better than those evil Republicans.

I'm watching Joe Biden speak now - 3:19am. He seems more than ready to be president - he seems experienced enough to be president.

Annenberg Challenge

Was Barack telling the truth when he created the impression that former domestic terrorist Bill Ayers was a casual acquaintance, nothing more?

"This is a guy who lives in my neighborhood, who's a professor of English in Chicago who I know..."

If there's nothing wrong with their relationship, why not tell the truth? Rick Moran writes at American Thinker:

As we wait for the press and others to go through the thousands of documents related to the Chicago Annenberg Challenge where Barack Obama served as President of the Board and terrorist William Ayers headed up the operations arm, we can say for certain that Obama is a liar of the first magnitude.

While we complain about how long our campaigns last, we need the time to dig out the truth - especially with newcomers like Barack.

The UIC records show that Obama and Ayers attended board meetings, retreats and at least one news conference together as the education program got under way. The two continued to attend meetings together during the 1995-2001 operation of the program, records show.

Sister Maya

I forgot all about Barack's sister, Maya Soetoro. Did you see her?

Up with America

Dennis Kucinich gave a lively speech at the Denver convention. He looks like a bit of a dope, but at least there's some fire.

Barack OBlunder

Susan Estrich writes today about the blunder that the convention has been, thus far, for Barack.

Democrats might not be united behind Barack Obama, but they are certainly united in what they think about George Bush and the GOP. What Obama needed in this convention was an effective assault on George Bush and John McCain, an argument, repeated over and over again — the way negative ads have to be in order to work — about why McCain was wrong, why he was tied to the high gas prices and faltering economy and failing war and mounting foreclosures and ridiculous health care bills that the majority of Americans are most concerned with.

The key phrase in that paragraph is "over and over again." This has been a convention without a theme. Tonight that will change, presumably, when Joe Biden hits the stage and does the old "4 more years of Bush" routine on John McCain, but even that speech will follow Bill Clinton's address, which will surely get lots of coverage through the evening and for tomorrow's news cycle.

That message has been heard on occasion, but it has not been the message of this Convention. Not even close.

The story coming out of this Convention is not Obama v. McCain, much less the follies of McCain and Bush, but Clinton v. Obama.

That has been the story - and that story is likely to continue as we pick apart Bill's performance tonight and compare it to Hillary's.

That was inevitable once the schedule was set, probably inevitable once the Obama team decided they didn't have to take on Hillary's debt and didn't have to treat her with kid gloved respect with which winners usually treat losers who have a lot of delegates.

This convention is one of Barack's first big leadership challenges, as he's a man with no leadership experience. How did he screw up the whole thing with the Clintons?

They didn't reach out to her delegates and donors and make them feel like they were important. As late as a week before the Convention, Barack Obama himself was saying that they were dealing with Hillary's top staff, not her supporters. Big mistake. Almost as big as thinking you can control Bill Clinton. It is nothing short of unbelievable to me that they thought, until Monday, that they could tell Bill Clinton what to say. Why would he listen?

There's another big mistake, of course, and that is the decision to hold a coronation speech in front of 75,000 people tomorrow night. Barack as a rock star has been effectively devalued by the McCain campaign, and turned into a negative.

If Barack Obama could have moved his acceptance speech to a school auditorium or a factory floor, that would have been great. Turning it into a rock concert is not so great. He doesn't need to look like a guy who can hold a crowd of 70,000. Everyone knows that. The question is whether that's all he can do.

The McCain campaign is very good now at making Barack suffer for his mistakes, and surely he will be well mocked for the stadium speech, and for the mausoleum that he'll be speaking from.

The McCain people are spinning that Obama will come out of the Convention with a fifteen-point lead. They know full well that there is no chance of that. The only question is whether he'll come out with any significant lead at all, and how long it will take the Republicans who convene next week in the Twin Cities to slash into it.