Polls

The two daily tracking polls, Rasmussen and Gallup, have Obama up just one point today.

Barack Obama and John McCain have been within one or two points of each other every day since Obama’s Berlin bounce faded nearly a month ago.

Here are a couple of important points on assessing the race from Gallup.

5. Current position of the candidates predicts little. In previous two elections, both candidates who lead polls in summer, pre-convention ( Bush in 2000, Kerry in 2004), ended up losing the popular vote.

6. History predicts modest bounces for candidates when they make their vice presidential announcements and after their conventions. This year, all of this will be compressed in a short two-week period in late August/early September. Back-to-back conventions are unprecedented. Voters will have a steady stream of election input. Bounce will likely follow bounce. This could be one of most fascinating times in presidential election history. Standings after conventions will be critical.