Friday, October 31, 2008

Truth Teller

Question: Is Barack qualified to be president?
Michelle nails the answer.

Priceless

Paying higher taxes? Patriotic. Complaining about higher taxes? Selfishness.

Barack Bizarro

Should illegals be part of the Social Security System? Should they receive benefits?

Sick

Are you shocked that any elected official would favor giving government benefits to people who aren't supposed to be in the country?

Barack is one of those elected officials.

Sarah, Smile

How in love with Sarah are you?

Judy Patrick is a professional photographer. From Alaska. Wasilla, to be exact. Where she once served as deputy mayor. To the actual mayor. Sarah Palin.

Over the years Patrick's accumulated quite a collection of photographs of her friend, including a nice assortment from Palin's successful 2006 insurgent campaign for governor.

Patrick has noticed how eager the public is to follow the 44-year-old mother of five with the lifetime NRA membershp and the blue-collar union member husband who races snow machines and fishes and the Army son in Iraq and the baby with the unusual name.

Cover of the new 13 month 2009 Sarah Palin calendar with photos by Judy Patrick

As The Ticket noted yesterday with videos, even Alec Baldwin and Tina Fey came away impressed.

So at her own expense Patrick has printed up a sizeable batch of 13-month 2009 Sarah Palin calendars, using her own Palin photo archives, minus some good shots she gave to the John McCain-Palin Republican presidential campaign.

The calendars are just now becoming available here for $15.95 and will soon be in Barnes & Noble as well. Judy has her own commercial website here.

To see two more monthly photos from the 2009 Sarah Palin calendar, click on the Read more line below.

For political fans, regardless of Tuesday's outcome, the calendar they'll really be eager to see is for 2012.

Just Words

Think of Democratic buzzwords - ones that reflect critical liberal philosophies.
The Obama campaign has decided to heave out three newspapers from its plane for the final days of its blitz across battleground states -- and all three endorsed Sen. John McCain for president!

After a week of quiet but desperate behind-the-scenes negotiations, the reporters of the three papers heard last night that they were definitely off for the final swing. They are already planning how to cover the final days by flying commercial or driving from event to event.
Diversity. Transparency....
The NY POST, WASHINGTON TIMES and DALLAS MORNING NEWS have all been told to move out by Sunday to make room for network bigwigs -- and possibly for the inclusion of reporters from two black magazines, ESSENCE and JET, the DRUDGE REPORT has learned.
Fairness. Equality...
Despite pleas from top editors of the three newspapers that have covered the campaign for months at extraordinary cost, the Obama campaign says their reporters -- and possibly others -- will have to vacate their coveted seats so more power players can document the final days of Sen. Barack Obama's historic campaign to become the first black American president.
Inclusion...
Some told the DRUDGE REPORT that the reporters are being ousted to bring on documentary film-makers to record the final days; others expect to see on board more sympathetic members of the media, including the NY TIMES' Maureen Dowd, who once complained that she was barred from McCain's Straight Talk Express airplane.
Just words.

Four

While Zobgy stayed at 7% in favor of Barack today, Rasmussen tightened a bit.

The Rasmussen Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama with 51% of the vote, John McCain with 47%.
Over the past five days, Obama's lead has been between three and five percentage points each day. That's a bit tighter than the four to eight point margins enjoyed by the Democrat for the previous month (see trends).

The tightening comes entirely from McCain solidifying his support. The Arizona Senator has reached the 47% mark on two of the past three days. Prior to that, he had not reached the 47% level of support in over a month. Another way of looking at it is that McCain's support has now stayed at 46% or above for five straight days. Prior to that, McCain had only reached the 46% level four times in a month.
However, while McCain has been solidifying support, Obama has not lost ground.This is the 36th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%.

Seven

No change from Zogby.
Democrat Barack Obama's lead over Republican rival John McCain held steady at seven points as the race for the White House entered its final four days, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Friday.

Obama leads McCain by 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in the three-day national tracking poll, virtually unchanged from Thursday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

"Essentially there is no difference in today's tracking," pollster John Zogby said. "Obama is holding firm and McCain is not making any gains."

Lying, Actually

Want to see a malicious campaign? Remember how Biden claimed a couple of weeks ago that Barack would be tested, like a young John Kennedy was, if he's elected. It was a shockingly stupid thing to say, but also something that you'd expect to hear out of a McCain supporter, not Obama's running mate. Look at the nasty trick used by Barack to try to escape responsibility for Biden's true words.

Biden did wrap up by saying that Barack would respond well to the threat, but that's not what he "actually" said. Here's what he actually said.

Barack has built great trust in his followers which he betrays on a daily basis. But they follow with religious ferocity, and their eyes no longer see.

Sirhan Ayers

It's starting to feel pointless trying to present facts supporting the obvious, but this Hannity and Colmes story on Bill Ayers slipped by me last week, and provides good corroboration of the sort of guy Ayers is, and the sort of people Barack embraces.

Dumbest Ever?

One of the dumbest things that Larry Kudlow has ever heard came out of the mouth of Barack on Thursday.
Today’s GDP report showed a small contraction of 0.3 percent. But stocks went up nearly 200 points anyway. Many observers believe the third-quarter downturn was not a catastrophe, especially if you factor in hurricanes and the Boeing strike. On top of that the short-term tax rebates ran out in the third quarter, and that helped depress consumer spending, which did fall 3.1 percent.

However, inventories are quite low after three quarterly declines. And business capex shipments actually rose slightly in the three-month period ending in September. So there’s no collapse, at least yet, in business investment.

Most analysts expect a much worse drop in the fourth quarter, ranging between a 3 and 4 percent contraction. But they are not factoring in a roughly $200 billion annual drop in consumer energy expenses that will accrue from the collapse of oil and gasoline prices. This is gonna be a big consumer booster.

Meanwhile, credit markets continue to defrost and commercial paper is now rising again, as is inter-bank lending. So the economic story may not be near as bad as the consensus thinks. Remember, of course, the Fed is pumping in cash at a huge rate. That’s going to help the whole story.
Here's the part that got Larry going.
The dumbest thing I heard today on the economy was a statement from Sen. Obama. He says the decline in GDP is “a direct result of the Bush administration’s trickle down, Wall Street first, Main Street last policies that John McCain has embraced for the last eight years and plans to continue for the next four.”

Wait a minute. Did I miss something here? After the bursting of the tech bubble and the 9/11 attacks, George Bush lowered tax rates across-the-board for individuals and investors. The stock market rallied uninterruptedly for five years. The economy expanded from the end of 2001 to the end of 2007. Are we to really believe the Obama narrative that cutting tax rates is the cause of this downturn? Not the credit shock? Not the Obama-supported government mandate to sell unaffordable homes to low-income people and to pressure Fannie and Freddie to securitize these loans? And not the oil shock, as well?

It was really tax cuts that caused this recession?

That’s the dumbest story ever told.

Larry - did you consider the one about Barack being qualified to be president? How about the one about Joe Biden being a good choice for VP? How about the one about Barack only planning on raising taxes on people making over $250,000 a year?

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Missing McCain

There was only one candidate, so it makes sense that Barack drew about half of a normal debate audience for his infomercial last night.
Barack Obama's campaign "infomercial" drew 26.4 million viewers to three major networks, proving modestly more popular than typical prime-time programing, preliminary figures showed on Thursday.

The Democratic presidential candidate's 30-minute message on Wednesday night garnered 2.1 million more viewers on CBS, NBC and Fox combined than those three networks drew in the same half-hour last Wednesday, according to Nielsen Media Research.

For NBC and CBS, the Obama ad marked an audience bump of 43 percent and 11 percent respectively over last week's action drama "Knight Rider" (7 million viewers) and the sitcom "The New Adventures of Old Christine" (7.8 million).

Fox did better last week with its World Series pre-game broadcast -- 9.6 million viewers.

So the main problem for Barack was that he didn't invite John McCain to join him.

The infomercial drew fewer than half the 57.4 million viewers averaged by the three recent presidential debates between Obama and Republican rival John McCain which aired on 11 commercial networks in all.

Of course, it's not about how many watched, but who. If it was a crowd of worshippers, than it does him no good. Independents and undecideds were his goal.

Trader Joe

Where's Joe?

Although it might seem like Joe “the Plumber” Wurzelbacher is everywhere these days, he wasn't at John MCain's rally this morning in the small town of Defiance, Ohio.

Except that nobody told the Republican presidential nominee that.

And so, in the midst of his speech, McCain called out to Wurzelbacher, as he often does on the campaign trail.

“Joe’s with us today," McCain told an audience of about 6,000 people. "Joe where are you? Where is Joe? Is Joe with us today?” he asked.

Joining the Nader campaign, perhaps?

When Joe failed to appear, an awkward silence settled over the crowd.

Then McCain, politician that he is, made lemonade out of lemons. "All right," he told the crowd. "Well, you’re all Joe the Plumbers, so all of you stand up!"

Razz Too

Rasmussen also moves two points toward Barack today.

After showing the candidates just three points apart yesterday, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll on Thursday returns to the range that has defined the race for over a month. It’s Obama by five, 51% to 46%.

Zogby jumped two points, showing Barack up seven.

This is the 35th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%. With the exception of yesterday, McCain’s support has stayed between 44% and 46% during that stretch (see trends).

Within their own party, both candidates lead by identical 86% to 12% margins while Obama has a six-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

Put Him Away

Given the structural demand for a Democratic victory, why hasn't Barack been able to shake McCain? Here's Howard Fineman's theory.

Why hasn’t Obama run away with this?

Because the country remains culturally divided. Because the more it looks like Democrats will score huge gains in Congress, the more worried “soft Republican” voters get. Because McCain has succeeded, in the minds of some of those voters, in raising the hoary specter of “tax-and-spend” liberals. Because Obama hails from a place (South Side Chicago) and background (the son of professional academics) more reminiscent of Democratic losers like Michael Dukakis, Al Gore and John Kerry than winners like LBJ, Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton. Because some voters remember the hate-filled sound bites of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

And, to a degree we cannot measure and may never fully know, because Obama is an African-American---and one with a Swahili name at that.

There is nothing that the staffers here in Chicago can do about any of that at this point. Up on the 11th floor of the office building here, staffers are hard at work. They aren’t thinking about those things. Their campaign manager, David Plouffe, won’t let them. “We expected this to tighten,” one of them said to me a few hours ago.

And so, it seems, it has.

Zogby Turns

Zogby has turned against McCain, with Barack's lead jumping 2% today.
Democrat Barack Obama has opened a 7-point lead over Republican rival John McCain with five days left in the race for the White House, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Thursday.

Obama leads McCain by 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in the three-day national tracking poll, building on his 5-point advantage on Wednesday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

Rasmussen moved two points in McCain's direction yesterday, so it will be interesting to see what they come up with when their numbers are released at 9:30.

It was the second consecutive day Obama's lead has grown as the two-year presidential battle draws to a close. McCain is struggling to overtake Obama's lead in every national opinion poll and in many battleground states.

"This is not good news for McCain. The race was tightening for a few days but now it is going back the other way," pollster John Zogby said.

Support for Obama, a first-term senator from Illinois, hit or exceeded the 50 percent mark for the seventh time in the last 10 days. McCain's support has not reached 46 percent in more than three weeks of polling.

Found Relatives

Barack family members have been found living in public housing in Boston. George must be jealous.
Barack Obama has lived one version of the American Dream that has taken him to the steps of the White House. But a few miles from where the Democratic presidential candidate studied at Harvard, his Kenyan aunt and uncle, immigrants living in modest circumstances in Boston, have a contrasting American story.
Those that's got shall get
Those that's not shall lose
So the bible said and it still is true
Mama may have
Papa may have
But God bless the child that's got his own
That's got his own
Zeituni Onyango, the aunt so affectionately described in Mr Obama’s best-selling memoir Dreams from My Father, lives in a disabled-access flat on a rundown public housing estate in South Boston.
Well the strong seem to get more
While the weak ones fade
Empty pockets don't ever make the grade
Mama may have
Papa may have
But God bless the child that's got his own
That's got his own
A second relative believed to be the long-lost “Uncle Omar” described in the book was beaten by armed robbers with a “sawed-off rifle” while working in a corner shop in the Dorchester area of the city. He was later evicted from his one-bedroom flat for failing to pay $2,324.20 (£1,488) arrears, according to the Boston Housing Court.
Rich relations may give you
A crust of bread and such
You can help yourself but don't take too much
'Cos Mama may have
Papa may have
But God bless the child that's got his own
That's got his own
The US press has repeatedly rehearsed Mr Obama’s extraordinary odyssey, but the other side of the family’s American experience has only been revealed in parts. Just across town from where Mr Obama made history as the first black president of the Harvard Law Review, some of his closest blood relatives have confronted the harshness of immigrant life in America.
When you got money
You got lots of friends
Crawling round your door
When the money's gone
And all your spending ends
They won't be around no more

Speaking outside her home in Flaherty Way, South Boston, on Tuesday, Ms Onyango, 56, confirmed she was the “Auntie Zeituni” in Mr Obama’s memoir. She declined to answer most other questions about her relationship with the presidential contender until after the November 4 election. “I can’t talk about it, I just pray for him, that’s all,” she said, adding: “After the 4th, I can talk to anyone.”


Fear

This sucker should be in heavy rotation.

Palin Chases Khalidi

Sarah Palin goes after the LA Times for failing to release the video tape of the Rashid Khalidi party.

Here's background on Khalidi.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Barack TV

Wheat fields. Heartland. We've got problems.

Barack in an elegant, presidential quality office in a country home. Wonder whose it is.

It's about the economy. Anecdotes on struggling Americans.

Rebecca Johnston is all about her family. She lives in a house in the suburbs, has a car, and loves her kids.

It's getting hard to make ends meet. Her husband needs surgery, but they're concerned about the costs. The food in the fridge is laid out by family member by shelf so they can pace their food for the week. Her boy plays football. Costs keep going up.

But it wasn't always this way. Cut to Barack and his convention speech, emoting on how tough it is to be a waitress.

Back to Barack in the office, blaming the Bush administration for the Wall Street meltdown. We need a rescue plan for the middle class. He introduces his tax hike plan.

He's very good at playing president.

They show some governors, including Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick. One of the bright spots in a potential Barack victory would be getting this guy out of the state. He's an earlier product of David Axelrod, Barack's braintrust. We got the Together We Can crap here two years ago.

I never understand the desire to have more conversation about issues when what the politicians do is make stuff up that they'll walk away from as soon as they're elected. Or, in Barack's case, he's already abandoned one set of positions from the primaries, and now where seeing a slick presentation on the general election package.

McCain should have bought ads on either side of this and just run tape of Reverend Wright speaking.

I'm worried about this guy, I'm going to fight for that guy - it's all manipulative nonsense. The music is particularly painful. Enya type stuff.

Barack is about government programs, now he's talking about how government can't raise your kids.

On to his father who he didn't know, telling the story about getting up early to study with his mother.

This is so slick it's insulting. But if people watch it, I suppose they could be swayed. Violins are playing when he talks, who could resist?

On to his mother dying - some emotion to lead into Michelle and Barack as a father. He loves his kids, has time for them. Dick Durbin says that Barack made an impact right off the back getting to Washington. Joe Biden talks about how impressed he was that Barack had questions for Condi Rice.

Which leads to a chance for Barack to talk about Joe and pretend Joe's a Scranton guy. They share core values.

A new family anecdote. A Ford plant worker in Kentucky. He's been cut back to every other week at the plant, even though his father and other family members did fine with Ford. Now his wife has been laid off.

Barack's American credentials. We get the 30 second grandparent rap, then to Barack reading the teleprompter in the office on dealing with Iran and going to war.

Governor Richardson helps build the argument as the music gets more forceful. He's a fine man, we learn.

"I will always tell you what I think and where I stand," says Barack. Now, that will be a change.

Live From Florida - another stadium. The closing argument. It still feels canned despite the fact that we're not watching tape. In six days we can choose hope over fear, etc. The promise of change over the status quo. That's what we're fighting for.

He asks Floridians to work for him. And to vote for him. I've never seen him so contrived, but the crowd cheering is powerful, and the music comes up as Biden joins him for the closing shot.

"I am not a perfect man. I will not be a perfect President."

What was that political movie with Alan Alda running for President - oh ya, The Seduction of Joe Tynan? It felt like that, this show. Barack TV. What you can to to sell a guy when you have unlimited sums of money available.

Obama Fatigue

Will Barack's takeover of the airwaves lead to Barack fatigue? McCain tries to shape reaction with a return to the Celebrity theme that worked so well during the summer.

Defensive

Barack mocks McCain and Palin.

When it gets to the part where Sarah winks, I take her to mean, "you buyin' this crap that Barack is dishing out?" No, I'm not.

Demographic Roulette

Thomas Sowell doesn't seem so excited about the possibility of electing the first black president.

Casual Nation

I'm not a big fan of Casual Fridays. We become the United States of Casual, though, if Barack wins on Tuesday.

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. ...

I'm an old fashioned guy, I know, but this bothers me. I don't even like it when friends, or even family, wear jeans coming over for a casual dinner. I find them disrespectful. I won't even start on how I feel about the damn sneakers.

So - how do you feel about Barack campaigning for President in blue jeans?


The times, they are a changin'. But have they changed that much?

Rasmussen Moves For McCain

Rasmussen operates the most stable, in my estimation, of polls. I like it because it is slow to change - something in their technique apparently buffers the daily fluctuations. Today it moves two points, after having shown a 5% Barack lead for the last two days, and an 8% lead for the two days before that.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 47%. This is the first time McCain has been within three points of Obama in more than a month and the first time his support has topped 46% since September 24.
This represents a crack in the wall of Barack. Getting him to the fifty point range is significant, as George Stephanopoulos observed the other day, as his campaign believes he will finish with a lower vote total than what the closing polls indicate.
Prior to today’s update, Obama had been ahead by four-to-eight points every single day for 33 straight days. During that 33-day stretch, Obama’s voter support had stayed between 50% and 52% every day while McCain was in the 44% to 46% range. It will take another day or so to determine whether today’s numbers reflect a lasting change or statistical noise. Two of the last three nights of polling show a closer race than was found in the previous month. Obama is now viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide, McCain by 54%.

Palling Around with Dash

What is terrorism?
The unlawful use or threatened use of force or violence by a person or an organized group against people or property with the intention of intimidating or coercing societies or governments, often for ideological or political reasons.
What friends of Barack Obama do we believe to have been involved in, or to have supported such activities?
  • Bill Ayers, co-founder of the Weather Underground and active bomber of U.S. government buildings.
  • Rashid Khalidi - university professor and reputed former PLO spokesman.
Is it unfair, inaccurate or code to say that Barack is guilty of "palling around with terrorists?" Rashidi is a close personal friend. The evidence is strong that Ayers is a critical partner in Barack's career, but he has not been forthcoming with details, so we are left to speculate. But some, like Anil Dash at Dashes.com, are upset with Sarah Palin's use of the palling phrase - without, it seems to me, bothering to test its accuracy.
But a closer look at her deliberate use of vernacular and language reveals that she has gone far beyond any other candidate in vice presidential history in the dangerous and irresponsible implications of her attacks. She has phrased her attacks on Obama in a way that avoids accountability to the press while specifically addressing the subset of her audience who are most likely to advocate extreme actions against Obama.

The crux of the issue is simple:

  1. Sarah Palin has unequivocally associated Barack Obama with the idea of terrorism and specifically with "terrorists".
  2. Republican President George Bush has defined in our National Security Strategy, and the Republican Party's platform affirms, that we may identify and strike at terrorists before they have committed any defined acts of aggression against American citizens.
  3. George Bush has made clear, by stating before a joint session of Congress that "Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists."
  4. Palin has used deliberate choice of language to avoid these connections being highlighted by the media, while increasing the likelihood that the target audience for her message will be incited by her statements.
...she appears to be attempting to convince a substantial portion of her supporters that Obama supports terrorism against the United States and thus should be, at the very least, incarcerated as an enemy combatant (which we are doing to American citizens already) or at worst, assassinated for supporting terror.

This is, of course, is an appearance that only presents itself to some. That Barack has built his career while partnering with bizarre and bad people is not in doubt, nor is the fact that some engaged in terror or supported terrorist activities. Palin's statements are factual and fair.

She has done this knowing full well that she can retain plausible deniability thanks to the ambiguity of her statements as they'll be interpreted by the media, by her detractors, and by her more reasonable supporters.
It would seem that Mr. Dash is jumping to conclusions. It's a hazard of doing too much thinking and not enough assuming of the obvious. For starters, Dash's assertions fail the reality test. Did Palin succeed in throwing the press off course, or did she suffer attacks for her "palling around with terrorists" language? She was attacked.

Did anyone, besides Dash, that is, posit that she was really demanding that Barack be arrested and sent immediately to Gitmo? He's the first one I've heard suggest this. Has anyone, in response to Palin, made demands that Barack be arrested? Not that I've heard.

Dash goes on to explain the idea of Code Switching - think Oprah slipping into black vernacular to ingratiate herself with her target audience - to make her language more impactful to the chosen audience than proper English would be to the larger population.

Put simply, if Palin says "Barack Obama consorts with terrorists," she is making the assertion that he supports acts of violence against American citizens and the media will refute this obviously false assertion. If, instead, Palin says he "pals around with terrorists", she's used code-switching to mask the seriousness of the charge, obfuscating her meaning enough to get away with making an assertion that inevitably calls for the imprisonment or even assassination of a political opponent.

This clever use of language only hides Palin's meaning from members of the press. Because writers for traditional media are usually highly educated and pride themselves on their mastery of Standard American English, they can often look down on dialects like AAVE and North Central English. Instead these forms of language being seen as legitimate and interpreted in the social context where they've formed, they're dismissed as being the words of "people who don't even speak proper English!" In the cases where the ideas aren't outright dismissed, there is still rampant misinterpretation of meaning: Reporters wrongly see a term like "palling" as imprecise, when compared to a word like "consorting."

In my mind, consorting is simply not a word that people use and readily understand the subtleties of. It might carry more baggage than Dash assesses is delivered by palling. Palling is, after all, friendly and warm - consorting sounds legalistic and dangerous.

On top of this, by deliberately omitting the word "domestic" as a descriptor of "terrorist" after its initial mention in her speeches, Palin has amplified the recurring theme of "otherness" that the McCain campaign and its surrogates have pinned on Obama. There is an unequivocal attempt to assign a commonality of purpose and intent between Obama, his supporters and campaigners, and terrorists who would attack Americans.

Yes, if Barack only had hung out and planned his career with domestic terrorists, then we'd have nothing to fear! It's like how domestic flights are safer than international ones.

Sarah Palin's conduct has gone far past the bounds of decency, and far past even the most dangerous efforts of any previous candidate for such high office. This is an inexcusable, unforgivable, and unacceptable transgression and my belief is that she should be removed from consideration for the office of Vice President for her dangerous, unethical and unamerican display of irresponsibility.

This sort of obsessive analysis distracts the educated class, and allows the elite to miss the obvious flaws in Barack's candidacy - inexperience, youth, radicalism and the natural questions of judgment and character that arise from his long partnership with dangerous people such as Wright, Khalidi, Pfleger, Ayers, Rezko, Farrakan, etc. And, of course, there's his stated displeasure with the work of the Founding Fathers.

PS - is there a hidden message in Dash's obviously deliberate failure to properly capitalize un-American?

Sorry - it's contagious.


Here's a refresher course on how Barack used to brag about his Chicago Annenberg Challenge experience, which is omitted from his resume today.

4.5

Zogby shows Obama up 4.5 points - basically unchanged from yesterday.
The race for President of the United States remained essentially frozen in time yesterday, with very little movement.

Just a week to go before Election Day, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows Democrat Barack Obama gained 0.1 points, while Republican John McCain dropped 0.2 points in the latest three-day rolling average tracking poll. The undecided voters increased to 6.5%, up 0.2 points from yesterday.

McCain wins 87% of the Republican support, and Obama 84% of the Democratic support, and each candidate wins 11% of the opposing party's support, the survey shows. Obama continues to lead among independent voters - his advantage now stands at 16 points, 51% to 35%.

Khalidi

This is a good thing for McCain to be doing - demanding of the LA Times that they release the video tape of the going away party for Rashid Khalidi.

John McCain's campaign is demanding that the Los Angeles Times release a video of a party for a prominent Palestinian activist that Barack Obama attended in 2003.

The Times described the going-away party for former University of Chicago professor, and Obama friend, Rashid Khalidi, in a story in April. The story reported that Palestinians thought they might have a friend in Obama because of his friendships in that community, despite the fact that his positions have never been particularly pro-Palestinian.

The cover-up is a more sparkling image of trouble than making specific accusations against Khalidi. The desire to hide the truth - such a frequent activity of the Obama campaign - is telling.

"A major news organization is intentionally suppressing information that could provide a clearer link between Barack Obama and Rashid Khalidi," said McCain spokesman Michael Goldfarb, citing Obama's friendship with Khalidi, who is now a professor at Columbia University.

He said the video could, among other things, show how Obama responded to a poem recited at the party accusing Israel of "terrorism" and warning of consequences for U.S. support for Israel, which Goldfarb described as "hate speech."

"The election is one week away, and it's unfortunate that the press so obviously favors Barack Obama that this campaign must publicly request that the Los Angeles Times do its job — make information public," he said.

The campaign hadn't previously demanded the video, though conservative bloggers have, and neither other reporters nor McCain's researchers have been able to dig up a copy.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

$3 Million

A group of ethical Democrats campaigns against Barack.

Tax Gaffe

Biden changes the Obama tax proposal. Biden's accurate in suggesting that there's nothing about the $250,000 figure that anyone should trust. The only thing you can trust is that he'll be raising taxes - and that figure will be abandoned on day one.

Comments

I figured that this dialogue from the comment section is worth sharing. It's in response to my poll update a couple of posts down.

4 Comments
Anonymous said...

You're being very selective about the polls your citing to supposedly show the numbers shifting toward McCain. Why not mention the following polls showing that Obama is holding his lead: ABC/Post +7, Diago/Hotline +8, Gallup (Expanded) +10.

But my main qualm with your posts about polls is that they are national. National polls may be a good indicator of how the nation as a whole is going to vote, but if you look at the polls state by state, Obama is looking to take the election handily. You're a smart guy Todd - you realize this right?

Not to mention that pollsters are less likely to be able to reach a likely Obama voter on the phone.

October 28, 2008 3:02 PM

athomemom said...
touche- I'd like to cite the Pew Research Poll that has a 16-point Obama advantage. The fat lady isn't singing, but I think it's close.

October 28, 2008 4:06 PM

Todd Feinburg said...
I ignore Gallup expanded because they're trying to use new techniques to accomodate hypothetical turnout differences. I'll trust the standard approach from Gallup until it's proven wrong.

I've followed these pollsters consistently because I've always viewed them as the kings of pollsters, often even being the ones who perform some of the other people's polls.

Also, the big liberal media outlets, like Newsweek (12), ABC (7), CBS and NBC always show huge leads for Barack - and I can't think of any reason why their results should differ so.

In terms of filtering, I start with daily tracking polls - rolling 3 day averages that are less likely to show fluctuations based on anomalous results - and polls that are current (ie new results today including surveys from yesterday). Looking at ABC, for example, there's data from 5 days ago included. The fun of watching the polls is to see how the race is going today, not last week - since the polls aren't predicting the future but only indicating where things are today, but more reliably, showing how things are trending.

Finally - the other polls are less trustworthy, as they use smaller samples. This causes me to mostly ignore IBD and GWU - both of which show Barack leading by just 3%.

The states are lagging indicators. If McCain is leading in my polls on Monday by 3 points, we won't be expecting Barack to win New Hampshire by 10 points, will we? But the polls will likely still show that. The most recent New Hampshire poll on RCP right now started last Thursday and wrapped up Saturday, and the oldest was finished a week ago Sunday.

October 28, 2008 4:16 PM

Todd Feinburg said...
Pew is an outlier at 15% - to be automatically ignored. But if you take all the polls that have new results issued today and disregard other factors that I've outlined above, the average of those 6 is a 4.83% lead for Barack.

That's a close race, but more importantly, it's a close race that is trending toward McCain with a week to go.

Closer Still

Can McCain keep things moving in his direction? We expect the race to grow more tense each day on its own - but the McCain campaign has finally found a theme - Barack's radical philosophy is scarier than the bad economy.

Today's numbers - Zogby moves one point closer, Gallup shifts 3% toward McCain. Rasmussen stays the same.

Rasmussen Reports10/25 - 10/273000 LV2.05146Obama +5
Gallup (Traditional)*10/25 - 10/272448 LV2.04947Obama +2
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby10/25 - 10/271202 LV2.94945Obama +4

Nutty E's

As much as they respect brains and sophistication, liberals find theirs largely inoperative when it comes to Barack. Here's the latest bit of email I've received purporting to offer profound insights. (The email I received is in blue, my responses are in black):

A question of perspective :
Obama/Biden vs McCain/Palin, what if things were switched around?..... think about it. Would the country's collective point of view be different? Could racism be the culprit?

What if the Obamas had paraded five children across the stage, including a three month old infant and an unwed, pregnant teenage daughter?
Considering he's black, and this would reinforce negative perceptions of being black, he would surely face a different standard. But you have to take the good with the bad - Barack wouldn't be the Democratic nominee if he wasn't black.
What if John McCain was a former president of the Harvard Law Review?
That would be a nice addition to his naval academy training.
What if Barack Obama finished fifth from the bottom of his graduating class?

One of the only justifications for his candidacy would be gone.
What if McCain had only married once, and Obama was a divorcee?
If it had occurred decades ago, no one would care, and Barack would defend himself from any mention of it by claiming that his failed marriage isn't what's going to bring the American people jobs and a prosperous economy. But, of course, the vast majority of voters would not be aware of the fact, because the pro-Obama media wouldn't write about it. (see next post down.)
What if Obama was the candidate who left his first wife after a severe
disfiguring car accident, when she no longer measured up to his standards?
See above.
What if Obama had met his second wife in a bar and had a long affair while
he was still married?
See above.
What if Michelle Obama was the wife who not only became addicted to pain
killers but also acquired them illegally through her charitable organization?
See above.
What if Cindy McCain graduated from Harvard?
She wouldn't be hated by liberals who judge her harshly for being blond, rich and tacky. Those negative attributes would be viewed as insignificant compared to her being in possession of the liberal certificate of approval known as a Harvard diploma.
What if Obama had been a member of the Keating Five?
(The Keating Five were five United States Senators accused of corruption
in 1989, igniting a major political scandal as part of the larger Savings
and Loan crisis of the late 1980s and early 1990s.)
Obama has many worse things in his recent past and no one seems to care, so there's no reason to think a 20 year old scandal would matter. Hope and Change is all that matters.
What if McCain was a charismatic, eloquent speaker?
No one would vote for Barack - he would have lost his ability to differentiate himself.
What if Obama couldn't read from a teleprompter?
See above.
What if Obama was the one who had military experience that included
discipline problems and a record of crashing seven planes?
He'd be up by 30%, as he'd have some experience that people could respect.
What if Obama was the one who was known to display publicly, on many
occasions, a serious anger management problem?
With his lack of any other achievement in his short career, this might loom large. If he had McCain's 50+ years of professional experience, no one would care, and again, the media wouldn't write about it.
What if Michelle Obama's family had made their money from beer distribution?
They'd be rich.
What if the Obamas had adopted a white child?
Folks would be confused, but impressed at yet another example of Barack's willingness to do anything to win.
You could easily add to this list. If these questions reflected reality,
do you really believe the election numbers would be as close as they are?

This is what racism does. It covers up, rationalizes and minimizes
positive qualities in one candidate and emphasizes negative qualities in
another when there is a color difference.

Educational Background:

Barack Obama:
Columbia University - B.A. Political Science with a Specialization in
International Relations.
Harvard - Juris Doctor (J.D.) Magna Cum Laude

Joseph Biden:
University of Delaware - B.A. in History and B.A. in Political Science.
Syracuse University College of Law - Juris Doctor (J.D.)

vs.

John McCain:
United States Naval Academy - Class rank: 894 of 899

Sarah Palin:
Hawaii Pacific University - 1 semester
North Idaho College - 2 semesters - gener al study
University of Idaho - 2 semesters - journalism
Matanuska-Susitna College - 1 semester
University of Idaho - 3 semesters - B.A. in Journalism

Education isn't everything, but this is about the two highest offices in
the land as well as our standing in the world. You make the call.
Given that John McCain's education was completed around the time Barack was born, there are other things to judge him by, so education appropriately takes a back seat to experience. Since Barack lacks any qualifications for the presidency, his educational experience is vital.

Given that Joe Biden appears to suffer mental problems and has been on the wrong side of virtually every important vote during his lifelong senate career, Sarah looks awfully strong by comparison.


I've got a question for them:
  • If John McCain had 8 years in the state senate as his single largest and longest career achievement, had little to show for his time there, and had built his career by cavorting with racists, black separatists, former terrorists and other scummy people, would he have been able to get this far?
  • If Barack were not black, would he have been able to get the Democratic nomination?
Now there are some important questions for liberals to ponder. But they won't.
You make the call.

Media Bias Bothering Liberals

Even liberals are complaining about the liberal media.
In a room full of television industry executives, no one seemed inclined to defend MSNBC on Monday for what some were calling its lopsidedly liberal coverage of the presidential election.

The cable news channel is "completely out of control," said writer-producer Linda Bloodworth-Thomason, a self-proclaimed liberal Democrat.
Maybe she's still angry about Hillary?
She added that she would prefer a lunch date with right-leaning Fox News star Sean Hannity over left-leaning MSNBC star Keith Olbermann.

Olbermann was criticized by many who attended Monday's luncheon sponsored by the Caucus for Producers, Writers & Directors at the Beverly Hills Hotel. The event was dubbed "Hollywood, America and Election '08."

Bloodworth-Thomason and others seemed especially critical of the way MSNBC -- and other media -- has attacked Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin while demeaning her supporters.
And last week, Dan Rather said that Sarah Palin would have been skewered for saying what Joe Biden promised would be a testing of the new President if Obama is elected.
Former CBS anchorman Dan Rather says there is a huge double-standard in the media when it comes to coverage the Barack Obama campaign receives, which is clearly made evident in the lack of scrutiny given to comments Obama’s vice presidential running mate Sen. Joe Biden made earlier this week.
That's pretty good coming from a guy who used to say things like this in his TV newscasts.


“The new Republican majority in Congress took a big step today on its legislative agenda to demolish or damage government aid programs, many of them designed to help children and the poor.”

— Leading off the March 16, 1995 CBS Evening News.
It's funny. Every self-respecting liberal I've ever debated has insisted that media bias is an imagined, and impossible, phenomenon, a symptom of conservatism.

Banned by Biden

Attempts by local media outlets to ask appropriate questions of the Obama campaign are meeting with resistance. As we learned last week, when Orlando anchor Barbara West went after Biden, those who misbehave will be punished. It's happened again in Philly.

Broken kneecap, anyone?

Monday, October 27, 2008

Closer

Drudge says that Zogby's numbers for Tuesday, released daily at 1:30am, will show the race getting one point tighter - to a 4% lead for Barack.

The Monday numbers from Zogby, Rasmussen and Gallup all show just a 5% lead for Obama.

Run It

Somebody, please. With the three top polls showing this a five point race, all that's needed is to get ads like this some circulation.

Praying for Barack

Guess who is getting the most third party ad support this presidential cycle. It's Barack.
The Matthew 25 Network, a relatively new political action group aimed at Christian voters, is beginning to air two new radio commercials today on behalf of Senator Barack Obama.

The spots are to run on Christian music stations in several battleground states, including Colorado, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina.


The spots are designed to appeal to Christian voters who have not been inspired by Senator John McCain. Polling by the Barna Group, a Christian research firm, says that Mr. McCain is not doing as well among evangelical voters as President Bush did four years ago and that Mr. Obama has made inroads among those who describe themselves as born-again.

Flawed Constitution

Despite attempts by the media to convince voters that the election is over, we should see things get closer over the last week. Starting from a very close 5 point difference.

Rasmussen Reports10/24 - 10/263000 LV2.05146Obama +5
Gallup (Traditional)*10/24 - 10/262448 LV2.05045Obama +5
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby10/24 - 10/261203 LV2.95045Obama +5

Can McCain use new audio revealing Barack's desire to fundamentially change the country, and the Constitution, to swing 3% of likely voters his way?

Choice

Interesting assessment from Jim Gergaghty at National Review regarding what legislation would be pursued by a President Barack for quick package.
When Obama says "we won't have time to engage in a bunch crazy things" I guess we're supposed to be reassured.

But ask Congressional Democrats about their first priorities, and you'll hear a lot about "Card Check" — the Orwellian-named Employee Free Choice Act, which eliminates the right of a secret ballot for workers deciding whether or not to form a union, and the Fairness Doctrine.

I note that Obama has indicated in the past that he opposes the Fairness Doctrine.

But if a heavily-Democratic Congress passed a reinstatement of the Fairness Doctrine, would a President Obama veto it? Would he really fight a Democratic Congress, and go to the mat to defend Rush Limbaugh's right to criticize him for three hours a day? Yeah, I have my doubts about that, too. (If Obama were to veto it, you would see me saying "Hip, Hip, Hooray" for him.)

Thus, after campaigning on getting the U.S. out of Iraq, health care for all, a middle class tax cut, funding alternative energy research, etc., the American people would see that two of the first acts of an Obama presidency are to eliminate the secret ballot and to drastically restrict Americans' First Amendment rights.

Palin Magic

Sarah is magic on the campaign trail.
It may be late in the campaign, but a new catch phrase for John McCain and his presidential quest may have been unveiled today in Leesburg, Va.

Sarah Palin, speaking to a characteristically enthusiastic crowd, was reciting her tried-and-true list of criticisms of Barack Obama when she was interrupted by a chant: "Use your brain, vote McCain."

The Republican vice presidential candidate seemed genuinely surprised -- and pleased -- by the slogan.

"You betcha," she responded (using her own catch phrase). "That's good."
Palin is obviously a smarter politician than the folks managing the McCain campaign, and she's working to restore her reputation, damaged by their bad advice.
A widening split has developed between Sarah Palin and key campaign aides for John McCain, with one McCain adviser saying the Republican vice presidential candidate is going "rogue," two reports say today. Some McCain sources wonder whether Palin is intentionally making public her disagreements with campaign positions, says a CNN story (read it here).

Perhaps the biggest mistake that the McCain campaign has made is having kept Palin under wraps, then releasing only to Charlie Gibson and Katy Couric.

October Surprise

Joe the Plumber doesn't live alone anymore.
"I'm not optimistic about bringing about major redistributive change through the courts - the institution just isn't structured that way."
As I fell asleep last night, I set the sleep timer so I could end the day with Hannity's America. There was some analyst - I don't remember who, and maybe he was on Hannity or maybe after - talking about whether there was still a way for McCain to win. He was saying yes, but not really. It would take one hell of an October Surprise for McCain to pull it out. This morning - there it is - on Drudge.
"The Supreme Court never ventured into the issues of redistribution of wealth, and of more basic issues such as political and economic justice in society..."
We know that Barack was raised, politically, by radicals - and there's no hyperbole in using that language. The challenge has been knowing to what degree he, as a matured politician, still operates on the intellectual underpinnings of what he learned from Frank Marshall Davis, Bill Ayers, Reverend Wright, et al.
"As radical as people try to characterize the Warren Court, it wasn't that radical - it didn't break free from the essential constraints that were placed by the Founding Fathers in the constitution - at least as it's been interpreted, and that's how the Warren Court interpreted it in the same way - that generally the constitution is a charter of negative liberties..."
In this wonderful tape, Barack talks tactics. He is disappointed that the court rulings of the civil rights years only offered blacks the protections the rest of us enjoy, but didn't force wealth redistribution on the country, and he's discussing how redistribution can be achieved moving forward.
"It says what the states can't do to you, it says what the federal government can't do to you, but it doesn't say what the federal government or the state government must do on your behalf."
This proves that Barack is not a JFK "Ask not" kind of guy. He's the opposite. Which flies in the face of the premise of America, that which made the country great, the idea that if you give people the chance to get ahead based on what they can do, rather than who they are, you've achieved the end game. The results are up to them. Barack, and liberalism, wants the results guaranteed.
"...and one of the, I think, tragedies of the civil rights movement was, um, because the civil rights movement became so court focused I think that there was a tendency to lose track of the political and community organizing and activities on the ground that are able to put together the actual coalitions of power through which you bring about redistributive change. In some ways we still suffer from that."
Barack's frustration is that an activist court could have forced the country into socialism, but that the Warren Court just wasn't radical enough. In retrospect, he realizes the court is an institution that isn't designed for this sort of administrative role - he thinks that economic redistribution must be achieved some other way.

Happy October Surprise.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Issues

Obama attacks McCain.

A Different View of Sarah

Sarah Palin is not about $150,000 clothing budgets, as she makes clear in Florida Sunday.

Piling On

Scott Conroy of CBS News writes a blog entry entitled "Palin Stretches Facts In Effort To Paint Obama As Presumptuous." She's a politician - isn't she required to stretch the truth?
Following a fiery introduction by "The View" co-host Elisabeth Hasselbeck, who accused the media of being "deliberately sexist" in its coverage of Sarah Palin, the Alaska governor suggested that Barack Obama assumes he already has the election wrapped up.
No exaggeration on the sexism charge - many women feel this way... in fact, I think Cokie Roberts made the same accusation today on This Week.
"And you know that elections - they're not decided until the votes are counted," Palin said at a rally here.
She's got that one right - although most of the media disagrees.
"But our opponent, he sure seems, once again to be getting out a little bit ahead of himself. Just yesterday, the New York Times reported that Barack Obama's inaugural address is already written."

The article Palin was referring to reported that John Podesta - who is in charge of Obama's transition team - wrote a hypothetical inaugural address for the Illinois senator in a book released last summer at a time when he was advising Obama's opponent Hillary Clinton.
Wow. He was writing the victory speech for Barack even as he was advising Hillary? No wonder Hillary ran such a bad campaign! Bill's buddies couldn't wait to throw them under the bus!
"Nine days out from the election, nine days out, and yet it's already written," Palin said.

"John McCain and I, we're out here asking for your vote so we can get to work for you, and a lot of folks are still undecided. And you know, Barack Obama and I, we both have spent quite some time on the basketball court. But where I come from, you have to win the game before you start cutting down the nets."
Ok so far.


Palin then brought up the presidential seal that the Obama campaign had made for the Democrat and the campaign's plan for Obama to speak at the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin last summer - a setting that is typically reserved for heads of state.

"Or the stadium that he's already rented out for the victory party that he has planned," she said.

But the Obama campaign has not, in fact, rented out a stadium for a victory party. Obama plans to hold his election night celebration at Hutchinson Field, at the southern end of Grant Park in Chicago.
Oh, that's right. He's getting the venue for free, where a fortune will be spent to built a victory site. Sorry...
"You kind of get the feeling that the Obama campaign thinks this whole election process is just a formality," Palin said. "They've overlooked though the minor detail of earning your confidence and your trust and winning your votes. And I know that judging by media coverage, it does seem that the coronation is already set, but as for John McCain and me, we don't take any vote for granted, and we are not assuming that we have your vote, we are respectfully asking for it."
That's his excuse for a column. How about some coverage on how Barack stretches the truth when he says he's not a socialist?