Race Gets Tighter

Why isn't Barack getting any traction? There are lots of reasons, but if you've been getting your news from the mainstream media, you're probably surprised by the tight race. After all, they've created the distinct impression that Barack is a shoe-in, haven't they? That the election is over?

Let's look inside the polls a bit to see why Barack is not the runaway favorite. First, here are the five most important issues this year according to voters polled by Rasmussen.

1. Economy
2. National Security
3. Ethics
4. Iraq
5. Healthcare

Which candidate do voters think has the best answers to these problems?

1. The economy is a tie - 45 each.
2. National Security goes to McCain by 12%
3. Ethics goes to Barack by 2%
4. Iraq goes to McCain by 12%
5. Health Care goes to Barack by 12%

You see - despite the perception that Barack is more in step with voters expectations, voters are evenly divided on the economy - which is far and away the number one issue. McCain's dominance on national security issues gives him the advantage, on average, on the rest of the issue. This is in stark contrast to the sense the media portrays that Barack is dominant in all catergories except Iraq.

At this stage in the 1988 presidential race, Michael Dukakis, the Democratic candidate, had a 17 percentage point lead over George H.W. Bush, who went on to win the election. John Kerry emerged from the 2004 Democratic convention with a strong lead over George W. Bush only to lose the election as well. In 2008, conventional wisdom says Mr McCain is running a much less effective campaign than either of the Bushes.

That only reinforces disquiet about Mr Obama’s inability so far to take a decisive lead.

The gulf between the strong anti-Republican leanings of the electorate and support for Barack continue to haunt Democrats.

The Democrats have moved further ahead of the GOP in newest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot. If given the choice, 47% of voters would choose their district’s Democratic candidate, while 34% would choose the Republican candidate.

But Rasmussen shows the race getting even tighter between Barack and McCain.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that the race for the White House has become breathtakingly close. Barack Obama attracts 44% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 46%.

What happens in the fall, when voters are trying to sort through the meaning of the Obamafia - Reverends Wright and Pfleger, Bill Ayers, Tony Rezko, etc?