Hard Truth

Things are not looking good for the Republican Party.

The Republican National Committee, growing nervous over the prospect of Democrats’ winning a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, is considering tapping into a $5 million line of credit this week to aid an increasing number of vulnerable incumbents, top Republicans say.

Which is understandable. That's the way it works - after 8 years of one team controlling the White House, folks get tired of the party in power and toggle vote, even in good times.

With party strategists fearing a bloodbath at the polls, GOP officials are shifting to triage mode, determining who can be saved and where to best spend their money.

Considering that we're now in economic times more ominous than most of us have ever lived through, there's little surprise that the "throw the bums out" fire is burning stronger than it has for some time.

And with the House and Senate Republican campaign committees being drastically outspent by their Democratic counterparts, and outside groups such as Freedom’s Watch offering far less help than was once anticipated, Republicans are turning to the national party committee as a lender of last resort.

A decision is imminent because television time must be reserved and paid for upfront, and available slots are dwindling.

Here's what's killing Republicans. According to Rasmussen,

Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters now say that economic issues such as jobs and economic growth are the most important voting issue this year. Eighteen percent (18%) consider national security issues such as the War with Iraq and the War on Terror as the highest priority. These numbers highlight a dramatic shift in voter concerns from Election 2004. On the day of our nation’s last Presidential Election, 41% name named national security as the top issue and just 26% cited economic issues.

Barack is leading by 5% in the latest Rasmussen poll, a lead which is reflected in other solid polls. While he should be leading by far more given the preference for Democrats this year, the underlying numbers reflect a shift toward Barack that will be hard for McCain to turn around. For example, not even Republicans are impressed with McCain as a candidate.

Just 48% of Republicans have a Very Favorable opinion of their party’s nominee. Seventy-two percent (72%) of Democrats are that enthusiastic about Obama.

A look at the electoral map show likewise shows that the foundations of this election now favor Barack.

Currently, Obama has the edge in every state won by John Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by George Bush, McCain is trailing in four and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 255-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 300-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.

Last week's debate was a very important one for McCain to stop the shift of the country away from him. Instead, his performance served to reassure voters that he was the wrong guy for the job. Each day, this becomes a harder trend to turn around. He has one more chance tomorrow to create a dramatically different image.

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 51%. For McCain, that figure in unchanged since yesterday and represents his lowest favorability rating since Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential Nomination in early June (see trends).

A closer look a these numbers suggests an even more substantial advantage for Obama—39% of voters have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic nominee while 32% have a Very Unfavorable opinion. The comparable numbers for McCain are 23% Very Favorable and 26% Very Unfavorable.

As a result of McCain's problems, the GOP is looking harder at congressional races to see if there are seats that might be salvaged in what is shaping up to be a Democratic landslide.

“They should pull the money from ­McCain like [former RNC Chairman] Haley Barbour did in ’96, when Dole slid away, and funnel it to save some Senate and House seats as best they can,” said one longtime GOP strategist who is working on congressional races.

Things aren't looking good for stopping Barack.