Thursday, November 6, 2008

We're Number 1

Who was right when it came to predicting the outcome of the presidential race? I was.

The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate?

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

Here at BWL, the focus was on Rasmussen, which I told you often was the best of the polls, in my opinion. We focused on Rasmussen along with Gallup and Zogby.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama's strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points -- 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama's final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two -- Rasmussen and Pew -- were spot on.

Here is the list --

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

On the other hand, I told you that Barack was unelectable. But I stand by that position, even given the results on Tuesday.

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