Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Barack's Support Continues to Slip

There are more negative signs for Barack in the latest numbers.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 42% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%.
The one point lead for Barack is an improvement - it was tied yesterday. But,
That’s the lowest level of support measured for Obama since he clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination on June 3. Obama’s support peaked at 48% with data released on June 8, 9, and 10. During that same time frame, McCain’s support has remained steady in the 40% to 42% range (he’s had just one day a point below that range and two days a point above it).

Is this all Barack will be able to muster - a glass ceiling?

When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 46% and McCain 45%. With leaners, Obama reached 50% support in mid-June and was at 48% or 49% every day from June 13 until July 10. Since then, he has reached the 48% level just once while polling consistently at 46% or 47% (see recent daily results). Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

So, Barack's downward trend continues - his campaign remains essentially stalled since Reverend Wright first appeared in mid-March. I continue to believe that the media is failing to see, or report, a huge structural problem for Barack. It just may be that he can't do any better than this - that he is unacceptable to most Americans. His drops have taken place while McCain has remained flat, with a campaign that has yet to find its footing. What happens when it does?

Despite the illusion created in the media, voters like McCain better. This holds true amongst what we're told is the key battleground group, independent voters.

McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of voters, Obama by 53%. McCain is currently supported by 86% of Republicans and holds a modest--four percentage point—lead among unaffiliated voters. Obama earns the vote from 77% of Democrats (see other recent demographic highlights).

1 comment:

Kim said...

Thank you for creating this blog.