Gallup Sinking - The Toothless Bump

The Gallup poll, a bit more volatile since it polls registered voters rather than testing for those who are likely to vote, took a big jump two days ago in response to Barack's big media week. But now it joins Rasmussen in sinking.

Barack Obama's lead over John McCain, having reached a nine percentage point margin a few days ago, has been reduced for the second Gallup report in a row, and is now at a 6-point, 47% to 41%, margin among registered voters in Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted July 26-28.

Some are confused as to why the Gallup Daily Tracker is showing a lead for Barack when the poll it did with USA Today shows a McCain lead of 4%.

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.

The answer is that the poll for USA Today polled likely voters, as does Rasmussen, which shows the race with a one point lead for Barack, bringing the Real Clear Politics average to a spread of just 2.5%.

Why is the trip not panning out to be a boost? Back to the USA Today poll.

In the first in-depth look at public perceptions of the Democrat's trip to Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East and Europe, the survey organization said 35 percent of respondents had a positive opinion of last week's tour.

But 26 percent had a negative opinion and 39 percent said they did not know enough about the trip to be able to say, despite blanket coverage including overseas interviews with Obama by all the main television networks.

Gallup said its findings suggested that vitriolic attacks on Obama by Republican contender John McCain, including about the Democrat's failure to visit wounded US troops in Germany, may have had an impact.

"The heavy coverage of the trip may have fueled speculation -- or reinforced pre-existing attitudes -- about news media bias in Obama's favor," Gallup added in its poll, conducted with USA Today.

The number of respondents who saw press coverage of Obama as unfairly positive was 39 percent. A total of 32 percent said coverage of McCain was unfairly negative.

"The media's coverage of Obama's foreign trip, coupled with a strong reaction from McCain and other conservatives, may have created the seemingly paradoxical effect of increasing Republicans' energy and excitement about voting for McCain," Gallup said.

"If this is the case, the degree to which this is short-term versus long-term is still not clear."

Obama's favorable rating dropped from 64 percent last month to 61 percent in the new poll. McCain's had increased from 59 percent to 62.