Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Be Prepared

The Zogby poll has jumped from a 3 point Obama lead over the weekend to a 10 point lead today. Which means a heightened wave of "It's Over," will be heading our way from the media.
"Obama just keeps growing, he has expanded his lead among almost every major voting group," said pollster John Zogby. "McCain seems to be out of steam for the moment."
Out of steam for the moment, perhaps. But polls are snapshots of the moment, and the vast majority of votes in this election will be cast on November 4, many by citizens who are registered to vote. Until then, we must fight the bad mood that the barrage of tilted media coverage creates. Consider this email, received this morning.
Hi Todd,
I look at your blog several times a day. I read Ann Coulter’s story about the polls and past Presidential elections, and I have to say that every candidate that has lead in the polls whether it be by large or small points since 1976 has always won.

At this point I really don’t know how McCain can win. To say the least it is a great concern for me. The only thing that could possibly happen is the Brady effect.Four years ago there were Kerry signs everywhere but here in Framingham I have only seen a few. I have seen just as many McCain signs as Obama.

I thought maybe there was a huge drop in signs because Kerry is the local guy, but then I heard a Rush caller from Ohio say the exact same thing.I know the reason could go two ways about the lack of signs, but I have to wonder if people are just keeping quiet and will cast their vote for McCain when the time comes.

This is what I’m hoping for.
Thanks, Julie
I remind Julie, and myself, not to allow the media to pull us down. While the fact about polls may seem daunting, we come from Boston where the Patriots were always the worst team (or so it seemed) in football, and the Red Sox would never win another World Series because of the curse of the Bambino.

The Rasmussen poll, which had dropped over the weekend to a four point lead for Barack has jumped back up to 6%. Despite the fact that polls have been swinging back and forth, Rasmussen says the race has been very stable.

It is difficult to overstate the stability of this campaign ever since the events on Wall Street brought a new wave of economic anxiety to the fore. Just before Lehman Brothers collapsed and started the Wall Street debacle, McCain held a very slight lead in the polls. Immediately afterwards, the race became more of a referendum on the Bush Administration and Obama moved ahead. The stability of Obama’s advantage in recent weeks suggests that it will be difficult for McCain to change the dynamic before the results are finally set in stone.

For the past eleven days, Obama has been at the 50% or 51% level of support every day in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. During those same eleven days, McCain has been at 45% or 46% every day and the gap between the candidates has stayed between four and six percentage points.

McCain will win because to vote to be transformed without knowing into what we will be morphed into is simply nuts.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hope for Change in the polls, but first in the media.