Monday, October 20, 2008

Bumping Powell

The Zogby poll, released hours before the others start to come out, has taken a jump toward Barack, ending a trend in the other direction.
Democrat Barack Obama has expanded his national lead over Republican John McCain in the U.S. presidential race to 6 percentage points, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Monday.

Rasmussen was at 6% yesterday, so this number isn't a shocker - but it is curious how a poll that is a rolling average of 3 days of surveys can be moved so far by one day's tally's. It suggests that something very odd went on in yesterday's surveys, in the previous day's surveys, or that there was some substantial shift in public opinion over the weekend.

Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 44 percent among likely U.S. voters in the latest three-day tracking poll, up from Obama's 3-point advantage on Sunday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

Perhaps it was the effect of Sarah Palin's Saturday Night Live performance, or maybe the Powell endorsement yesterday. Could Powell have affected that many people on such short notice?

The rally by Obama broke a string of three consecutive days when McCain had gained ground on the Illinois senator after their final debate on Wednesday. It was the first time in 14 days of the tracking poll that Obama has reached 50 percent.

The poll, taken Friday through Sunday, showed independent Ralph Nader and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney with 1 percent support. Libertarian Bob Barr barely registered any support.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

OJ's 1st trial, the murder trial