Sunday, November 2, 2008

Zogby Returns

Friday's strong day of polling was not repeated on Saturday for McCain, who still runs behind Obama by nearly 6 points in the Zogby poll.
After a strong day of polling for Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Friday, Democrat Barack Obama experienced a strong single day of polling on Saturday, retaining a 5.7 point advantage that is right at the edge of the margin of error of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll. The race has remained remarkably stable down the stretch, this three-day rolling average poll shows.
One bit of consolation - weekends are considered to be weak polling days for Republican candidates.
Pollster John Zogby: "Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.
Imagine that?
"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.

1 comment:

Steven W. said...

The key with Zogby - as in prior years - is thta this was his last poll in the last week before the election. Traditionally this is the poll in which he applies his Zogby's Secret Sauce that (historically) produces the true results he can point to afterwards as his having identified the trend, despite the continuing narrative provided by the major media. It didn't happen without any other suggestive evidence to the contrary - such as Pennsylvania closing (4% within margin of error) with a large number (9%) of undecideds remaining (majority of which will break to McCain) and another number (3% - 4%) likely included Democrats - Reagan Democrats and Hillary! voters - who will choose McCain within the silent solitude of the voting booth ... but never admit it to their friends & pollsters. It's McMentum while it's also becoming clear Obama is losing his mojo :)