Numbers

The only polls that have updated since the holiday weekend are the ones that matter - the constant tracking polls that tally three days of polling results daily by Gallup and Rasmussen. They may have flaws in their approaches, but those flaws remain constant, so over time the trackers are a good indicator of how things are moving.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows a steady race with Barack Obama enjoying a five percentage point lead over John McCain. Obama attracts 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When "leaners" are included, Obama leads 49% to 43% (see recent daily results).

As you probably know, white people don't go for Democrats. In 2004, white America preferred George W. by 17%, up from a 12% advantage in 2000.

McCain leads by nine among White Voters. Obama leads 94% to 3% among African-American voters and 61% to 30% among Hispanic voters.

President Bush is thought to have received about 40% of the hispanic vote last time around. The Democrat generally gets about 90% of black voters.

The Gallup numbers also remain pretty constant.

If the presidential election were held today, 47% of registered voters nationwide say they would vote for Barack Obama while 43% would opt for John McCain, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking results.

Of course, all these numbers will change over the fall season, as voters face a barrage of background information on the ethically challenge Obama.