Wednesday, October 8, 2008


Counter to the trend indicated by the Rasmussen poll (Obama's lead down from 8% to 6%) and Zogby (showing a 2 point Obama lead), Gallup showed an increase in Barack's lead today.
The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report shows Barack Obama with a 52% to 41% lead over John McCain.
One can draw conclusions from the fact that Gallup's surveys are of registered voters, while the other pollsters filter the pool down to likely voters. A poll of registered voters would presumably include people whose reactions are less thoughtful, as they are not planning to vote and are less engaged in the political process. Gallup and Rasmussen frequently respond differently to events - this difference in methodology could explain why.
Concern about the economy seems to be playing to Obama's advantage; he overtook McCain when the financial crisis worsened in the middle of September, and his strong showing today coincides with the worst rating of the economy this year (59% of Americans describe current economic conditions as "poor").

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