Fifty-one percent of Democratic voters say they expect Mr. Obama to win their party’s nomination, down from 69 percent a month ago. Forty-eight percent of Democrats say Mr. Obama is the candidate with the best chance of beating Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, down from 56 percent a month ago.So says the new CBS/New York Times poll.
And in another piece of evidence that campaign story lines change as suddenly as the rate of global warming, only 56% of democrats say their party is united, while:
60 percent of Republicans see their party as unified, a striking turnaround from the Republican turmoil at the start of the primary season.Ain't it amazing what some honest reporting can do to a presidential race.
Hillary, meanwhile, is closing fast in North Carolina, having pulled to within 10 points in one study:
PPP (Public Policy Polling) numbers illustrate that, over the course of six polls the organization conducted among North Carolina voters, Obama's lead shrank from 18-25 points in the previous five polls to just 12 points in the most recent poll, released April 28. In this most recent PPP poll, Obama leads Clinton 51% to 39%. In fact, the previous PPP poll, taken on April 19-20, showed Obama 25 points ahead of Clinton, 57% to 32%.In Indiana, polls showed the democrats tied before the vote in Pennsylvania last week:
An ARG poll from March 29-March 30, 2008 showed Obama up over Clinton 51% to 38%. ARG now (April 26-27) shows Clinton only 10 points behind Obama, 42% to 52%.
But recent polls conducted within the last 4-5 days show Clinton in a statistically significant lead although the margin is small. Data from American Research Group shows Clinton ahead by 5% points. SurveyUSA is the only poll that has Clinton leading by 9% points. Only Research 2000 shows an even race between the candidates even in recent polls.
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