Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Fallen Angel

Barack is no longer an angel sent from God. Going forward, he will have to campaign for President in the same manner as other candidates, standing on planet earth:
Fifty-one percent of Democratic voters say they expect Mr. Obama to win their party’s nomination, down from 69 percent a month ago. Forty-eight percent of Democrats say Mr. Obama is the candidate with the best chance of beating Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, down from 56 percent a month ago.
So says the new CBS/New York Times poll.

And in another piece of evidence that campaign story lines change as suddenly as the rate of global warming, only 56% of democrats say their party is united, while:
60 percent of Republicans see their party as unified, a striking turnaround from the Republican turmoil at the start of the primary season.
Ain't it amazing what some honest reporting can do to a presidential race.

Hillary, meanwhile, is closing fast in North Carolina, having pulled to within 10 points in one study:

PPP (Public Policy Polling) numbers illustrate that, over the course of six polls the organization conducted among North Carolina voters, Obama's lead shrank from 18-25 points in the previous five polls to just 12 points in the most recent poll, released April 28. In this most recent PPP poll, Obama leads Clinton 51% to 39%. In fact, the previous PPP poll, taken on April 19-20, showed Obama 25 points ahead of Clinton, 57% to 32%.

An ARG poll from March 29-March 30, 2008 showed Obama up over Clinton 51% to 38%. ARG now (April 26-27) shows Clinton only 10 points behind Obama, 42% to 52%.
In Indiana, polls showed the democrats tied before the vote in Pennsylvania last week:
But recent polls conducted within the last 4-5 days show Clinton in a statistically significant lead although the margin is small. Data from American Research Group shows Clinton ahead by 5% points. SurveyUSA is the only poll that has Clinton leading by 9% points. Only Research 2000 shows an even race between the candidates even in recent polls.

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