Barack's Threat to Peace

Could it be that Barack is a threat to the success of the surge even without becoming president? It could be. Consider this powerful analysis from Robert Kaplan in the Atlantic. Kaplan discusses how aggressive Defense Secretary Robert Gates has been in attempting to win the war in Iraq, a war that he opposed from the start. And Gates is not alone.

Army Gen. David Petraeus and Amb. Ryan Crocker were likely not avid supporters of the invasion either, but both are now working not just to get America out of Iraq with our honor intact, but to win there. Sen. John McCain, who was cool to both the insertion of forces in Bosnia and the war in Kosovo in the 1990s, was vigorously in favor of winning those conflicts once troops were committed on the ground.

Having been against the war from the start is no longer a particularly relevant credential.

The Democrats may well be right that the invasion was a strategic mistake that cost us greatly both in the Middle East and in the rest of the world. But their dire predictions from two years ago don't look very good in hindsight. And so they need to start thinking constructively about Iraq, not destructively. To wit, as former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage -- another opponent of the war -- has said, the United States will be known and remembered as much by how it got out of Iraq as by how it got in. Armitage is thinking constructively in a way that Obama and company need to.

In light of John McCain's hard line position on winning in Iraq, Obama's position in favor of abandoning the war effort may result in the Iranians deciding that they must do whatever possible to get Barack into the White House.

...the less inclined he is to close the distance between what he will do next in Iraq and what Sen. John McCain will do next, the greater is the possibility that Iran will take advantage of the policy gap between the two candidates... (T)he Iranians may decide to help his electoral chances by initiating a new spate of bombings.

Barack does seem to be hedging his bets on Iraq, offering muddled language regarding what he might do if given the keys to the Pentagon. All the same, his official position, as spelled out on his website, is still to bring the troops home over 16 months starting as soon as he gets into office. I assume that this position is a lie - I don't believe Barack to be irresponsible enough to do anything more than pay lip service to it.

But, as Kaplan points out, even articulating such a silly position carries with it the potential of grave hazards.