Polls

The best of the current presidential polls is the Rasmussen daily tracker, which tests 3000 likely voters and shows Barack having a 5 point lead.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. When "leaners" are included, Obama leads 49% to 44%. Three percent (3%) say they will vote for a third-party option while 4% remain undecided (see recent daily results).

Both candidates are doing well amongst the voters in their own parties.

Currently, Obama wins the vote from 80% of Democrats while McCain is supported by 82% of Republicans. The two contenders are essentially even among unaffiliated voters.

But the key to this poll is that it demonstrates what a poor predictor the polls are at this point of what is going to happen in November.

However, one of the key stats in the race remains the potential for volatility in a race with two little known candidates—32% of voters are either uncommitted at this time or could change their mind before Election Day. Thirty-six percent (36%) say they are certain to vote for Obama while 32% are that certain of their support for McCain (see recent demographic notes).

There's another poll, meanwhile, that shows a big lead for Barack - this one from the LA Times and Bloomberg. Like the Newsweek poll that preceded it, the lead doesn't match the norm of the other polls, and its fundamentals appear flawed.

The Newsweek poll, which appeared several days ago, shows a 15 point lead for Barack. But it has a small sample size of about 896 registered voters. Polls of registered voters aren't as accurate as ones which only poll those who are deemed likely to vote based on their answers to qualifying questions.

The new poll from the Times shows a 12 point lead for Barack, has a sample size of a bit over 1100, and is also a poll of registered voters.

On a four-man ballot including independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, voters chose Obama over McCain by an even larger margin, 48% to 33%.

Gallup, meanwhile, in its daily tracking poll, shows Barack leading by 3 points with a sample size of 2587 registered voters. This one is good because of its much larger sample size, but questionable because of the lack of a test to see if respondents are likely to vote.

The best of the bunch is the tracking poll from Rasmussen.

The realclearpolitics average of all national polls has ticked up to a mean 7.5% lead for Barack on the strength of the big leads in the Newsweek and LA Times polls. But these polls are, at this point, aberrations.