Big News - No Change

The big pollsters continue to deny the wished for results in Newsweek's poll of last week that showed Barack up 15 points.

PRINCETON, NJ -- For the third straight day, Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows Barack Obama and John McCain tied in national registered voter preferences for the fall election, each now with 44% of the vote.

Rasmussen, along with Time, continues to show Barack up four points.

Thirty-three percent (33%) are just as certain they will vote for McCain. Seventy percent (70%) of Republicans are certain they will vote for McCain and 68% of Democrats say they same about Obama. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 30% are certain to vote for McCain, 25% for Obama and 45% say they could change their mind before Election Day (see notes on recent demographic data). Part of the reason for this extraordinary fluidity is that the candidates are relatively unknown. Another factor is that the issue array is not as settled as in recent elections.