Gallup Shows Race Tied - Again

For the second day in a row, Gallup's daily tracker of 2600+ registered voters shows a tie between Barack and McCain. Rasmussen, a more accurate survey of 3000 likely voters, remains a four point lead for Barack when "leaners" are included, and five points without.

Is it possible that international security concerns in the news are working to McCain's advantage and keeping the race tighter than it would be otherwise? That's what Dick Morris said last night on the Factor. Gallup's numbers would seem to reinforce this view:

Americans are more likely to have confidence in John McCain (80 %) than Barack Obama (55%) ...to handle the responsibilities of commander in chief.

While the Gallup numbers do indicate how poorly Barack is doing at a point when he should be flying high, polls at this point are not great predictors of what will happen in November, since there hasn't been a campaign yet. At the same time, it seems the more that voters get to know Barack, the less impressed they are.