Barack's Miscalculation - Why Barack Will Lose

Barack has switched sides in the presidential race. During the primary season he was the candidate who was going to change Washington, differentiating himself from Hillary who, while liberal, wasn't liberal enough on the war.

The primary became a referendum on Hillary. Was she a return to the past, was she too middle of the road, had she sold out on the war, did she represent what was wrong with Washington rather than the fix?

Hillary was deposed, rejected by Democratic voters who hadn't yet gotten to know Barack Obama, but were so eager for change that they would have gladly taken any guy off the street to be their nominee. And they did.

Now that he has effectively secured the nomination, Barack is behaving like every candidate preparing for the general election. He is abandoning his core supporters as he moves to the center.

But in a year in which all electoral fundamentals point to an easy Democratic victory, the roles have been reversed. Barack, including his character deficiencies and his lack of experience, is now the focus, and the general election is a referendum on him. People want change so badly that they are predisposed to vote for the Democratic nominee. They just need to know if he can be trusted with the job.

This is where Barack's miscalculation comes into play.

His team is assuming that he can absorb the crediblity blow that the move to the center represents. All candidates do it, they assume, so why not Barack? Quite cavalierly, they are walking away from earlier positions on such visible issues as gun control, NAFTA, capital punshment, FISA, religion, and campaign financing, and they are laying the groundwork to do the same on Iraq.

None of these changes is, individually, a deal breaker for voters. They expect lies from their presidential candidates, and in a two party system, we practice toggle voting - we take candidate A because he's going to more liberal/conservative then the other guy.

But Barack is an unknown entity. Many voters' first image of him was formed around the Pastor Wright scandal. Others are forming their impressions now, as Barack proves himself to be entirely untrustworthy. And in the fall, when a "Swift Boat" style barrage of legitimate attacks on Barack's worthiness commences, the foundation upon which Barack's credibility is constructed will collapse.

That's my humble opinion, even as virtually everyone whose opinion I respect is convinced that Barack will win, I don't see him surviving himself.