Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Swinging Georgia

In the optimism of the moment, Democrats have been looking to Georgia as a state that could swing their way as Barack, the all-powerful, rewrites the electoral map. Not so fast. A snapshot of the moment from Rasmussen indicates that McCain is viewed unfavorably by 37% of voters there. That's pretty small compared with Barack's negatives, which are running at 54%.

In the first survey of the state by the polling outfit since Obama won the Democratic presidential nomination, Republican John McCain still holds a significant lead, with 51 percent compared to 41 percent for Obama.

Six percent declared themselves for another candidate — Libertarian Bob Barr was not mentioned — and 2 percent were undecided.

The polling indicates that opinions are not as unsure as one might expect at this stage of the general election.
The small number of undecided voters is striking, and probably a result of the interminable national primary campaign. Which means that we could be headed for a race in which enthusiasm, or the lack of it, will count.
Wait until voters learn that Barack wasn't blindsided by Reverend Wright, but instead, that we were blindsided by Barack and his radical friends.

Nationally, voters remain distracted by media delight over Barack having 'clinched' the nomination last week.

The latest daily tracking poll from Gallup, which includes surveys conducted Friday through Sunday, shows Obama leading Republican John McCain 48 percent to 42 percent nationwide.

While an examination of swing states, one by one, offers much more insight, it is fun to watch the overall horse-race with national polls.

That's Obama's biggest lead yet over McCain in the Gallup tracking survey; the two have been basically tied in Gallup's tracking poll since mid-March. National polls indicate a candidate's overall strength, but the November election, of course, is contested state by state for electoral votes.

Which is why the Georgia deficit is more telling than a 6 point national lead.

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