Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Barack's Bad Night

It is disappointing and hard to face the reality that the fun is over.

Not that Hillary won't continue her march to the convention, but because the party will view Barack's poor night as a good night - one in which his deterioration has been slowed.

Phew! said the party last night. Now we don't have to actually take Hillary's claim that Barack is unelectable seriously. Relieved that Barack's weakness didn't result in a further eroding of his credibility, they move on more confidently, with a little less nervousness in their gait.

Why was Barack's night poor? I'm looking at him as the front runner. I'm figuring that the guy who wins 90% of the black vote should win pretty big in a state with a disproportionately large black population. I'm looking at his inability to win in Indiana, a state in which he has partial home field advantage, and I'm saying what's wrong with this candidate? I'm looking at a guy who had Hillary beat a couple of months ago, but he still finish her off. I'm looking at a guy who is the darling of the media, is the dream of the democratic party, and for some reason, he just can't win this thing.

Isn't the economy the most important issue? Look at these exit poll numbers:
THE ECONOMY: Two-thirds of Indiana Democratic primary voters said the economy is the most important issue facing the nation. Those voters favored Clinton, with 53 percent voting for the former first lady and 47 percent voting for Obama, according to exit poll results.
Hillary wins 70% of seniors in Indiana, and 60% of whites. Those are some big populations, whose impact is not reduced in a general election.

The black vote, of which Barack get 90%+, are a fixed number of voters, whose impact will be reduced in the general election.
Nearly half the voters in the Indiana and North Carolina Democratic primaries said the situation with Barack Obama‘s former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, was important to their vote. Most of them voted for Clinton: about seven in 10 in Indiana and six in 10 in North Carolina.
In North Carolina, Barack's bad news is covered up by the black vote:
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton won significant support among white Democratic voters. More than half of white men and nearly two-thirds of white women supported her in the Democratic primary.
More of the same from Fox News poll numbers:

In Indiana, white men went for Clinton 58 percent to 42 percent for Obama. In North Carolina, she won 54 percent of white men to 40 percent for Obama. Among white women, which made up 34 percent of the North Carolina vote, Clinton won 64 to 32 percent.
So, if Democrats are happy nominating a candidate who isn't the first choice of the majority blocks of democratic voters, who is not favored in national polls of democrats, then they should be very pleased that this process is winding down with Barack still hanging on.

For a bit there, democrats were getting scared enough to acknowledge that Barack is a flawed candidate. Now they'll move on blindly.

And we'll have to wait for fall for the truth to come out.

No comments: