Friday, May 2, 2008

The Beat Goes On

If current polls are an accurate indicator of what's going to happen in Tuesday's votes, the result will be - more of the same.

In the Real Clear Politics aggregate of all the polls, Barack's lead in North Carolina has shrunk to 8.2% (he lead recently by 25% in one poll), and Hillary's lead in Indiana is up to an average of 6.2% (this had recently been a draw). Could Clinton pull a major upset and win in North Carolina?
One month ago Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) faced an uphill climb in North Carolina. A few days from Tuesday's primary, Clinton has clearly closed in on Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and there are now whispers of a Clinton win among her state-wide supporters.
If Hillary wins in single digits in Indiana while Barack wins NC by single digits, the message is the status quo. There's little fodder for those who want to argue that Clinton is unjustified in staying in the race. Likewise, more wind heads into the sails of the "What's Barack's Problem?" question. Why can't he put her away, some Dems will grumble?

Meanwhile, as Hillary's campaign does better and gets stronger, watch for super delegates to move equally and oppositely toward Barack. Even though he is proving to be a candidate who can't win in the fall, in their contempt for the Clintons and fear of alienating newly registered Democrats, the party is fighting to help Barack hang on to a nomination that he deserves less every day.

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